Bay of Campeche

[gatorcane]

we will need to watch it then..thanks

[caneman]

Yep, noticed that earlier too. NOGAPS also showing a system moving in that general direction. Am I the only one who gets tired of the season dead, slow than normal posts? Just becasue there are a few days without an active system. Come on people-you know who you are. It gets old. Couple things you can count on. 1. Is dying and 2. During the season, if you have a couple days of no action strung together you will surely see a thread started on season cancel, slower than normal, blah, blah, blah. Is gets old and I just LMAO. And If it gets active in Sept and Oct. It could be bad news for Florida with multiple hits and that would sure cause some embarrasement for people calling the season during the 3rd week of aug.

[lrak]

Yep, noticed that earlier too. NOGAPS also showing a system moving in that general direction. Am I the only one who gets tired of the season dead, slow than normal posts? Just becasue there are a few days without an active system. Come on people-you know who you are. It gets old. Couple things you can count on. 1. Is dying and 2. During the season, if you have a couple days of no action strung together you will surely see a thread started on season cancel, slower than normal, blah, blah, blah. Is gets old and I just LMAO. And If it gets active in Sept and Oct. It could be bad news for Florida with multiple hits and that would sure cause some embarrasement for people calling the season during the 3rd week of aug.

nope!

[Ed Mahmoud]

Part of this active wave with a suggestion of some kind of rotation might stay offshore Central America.

[wxman57]

The little spin & convection near 15N/80W caught my eye, but after looking at the surface analysis (below) I can see that there's no LLC, just a wave axis. In order for development to occur, we need to see strong, deep convection persist for 24 hours or more. That'll increase convergence and lead to development of an LLC. Chances of that happening here are not great, but they could be as high as 20%. If the convection was to persist until tomorrow afternoon then it might warrant an invest. Problem is, there's a big chunk of land in its path.

[lrak]

it looks to be skirting the land.

[lrak]

the water vapor images really look like its saying "bye bye" to Nicaragua

[Sanibel]

Looks like the main circulation could still be headed for upper Nicaragua.

[MGC]

Wave interacting with ULL. Doubt anything developes, just a small chance ATT....MGC

[Sanibel]

No, this thing has good disturbance structure. It's just that the center has pulled over Nicaragua. I'd bet my hurricane shorts this thing would have gone big if it tracked NW and over water. Too late now. I doubt it will relocate - but you never know.

[tailgater]

ABNT20 KNHC 281500
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT TUE AUG 28 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS MOVED INLAND OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA...THUS ENDING ANY CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
That is a blunt statment, and should end all speculation.

[lrak]

1/6th of the cloud mass is overland?

[tolakram]

http://www1.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rms ... PICAL.html

The floater recently moved over this system. Based on my untrained observations it seems to be moving NW, skirting the coast and continuing to develop.

[Sanibel]

Could be making a center shift back over water into the Gulf of Honduras. But it will then only track over Yucatan, which is why they are probably laying off this one.

[windstorm99]

[caneman]

Sure looks to be the year of the Carib. storms. I sure a couple of these don't shake loos in the GOM in Sept, Oct or even Nov.

[Stormcenter]

Sure looks to be the year of the Carib. storms. I sure a couple of these don't shake loos in the GOM in Sept, Oct or even Nov.

If there is a storm in the GOM in November then I personally would be "shocked".
I think there is a better chance of seeing the Texans is the Super Bowl in 2008.

[HURAKAN]

Looking very interesting this afternoon.

[caneman]

yea that would be shocking but this season seems to have the makins for a big bang at the end with La Nina approaching. Not sure that correlates into helping the Texans into the Super Bowl though but you guys do have Schaub now so maybe just maybe. Been there done that with 20+ years of the Bucs not making it to the playoffs.

[Brent]

OK, this area is starting to look concerning. Most of it is not inland... and it looks organized.