Invest 94L,Near Windwards-Discussions

[Brent]

I also want to see Felix out of this but so far Felix is not around the corner. 94L may become Felix but it's still far from it.

I'm quite happy to have Labor Day weekend off. Go away 94L!

You had last weekend off, for Pete's sake! Now you want two in a row?!?!

Especially considering it's Late August/almost Early September! LOL You had over 2 months of quiet between Barry and Dean(Chantal was brief and during the middle of the week).

[meteorologyman]

little concern with this storm. Though no telling where this storm may go as far as land fall or if it fishes, but now that our high ridge pressure is breaking down here in the southeast, there is no shield from these monsterous storms for TX through FL. The Weather Channel said it was the High Pressures that saved us from Dean, unfortunately it did not save Mexico.

[Derek Ortt]

I cannot see any turn to the north until after this clears Aruba. A track slightly south of Ivan appears the most likely, similar to Bret and Joan at least until Aruba

[x-y-no]

To my untrained eye, 94L appears to be pretty much erupting to life:

Floater One Rainbow

Am I seeing things, or is it really starting to pop?

Cloud tops are a lot warmer than they were earlier today ...

And it's not so clear to me where any low-level center is. If it hasn't relocated substantially north since this morning, then it's pretty far removed from the stronger convection by now.

We'll see what tonight's diurnal maximum can do for it.

[jhamps10]

To my untrained eye, 94L appears to be pretty much erupting to life:

Floater One Rainbow

Am I seeing things, or is it really starting to pop?

actually it looks weaker at the end of the loop compaired to the start of it, however it does appear to be a bit larger than the beginning.

[pojo]

little concern with this storm. Though no telling where this storm may go as far as land fall or if it fishes,

That is why the CARCAH is waiting and watching what this storm is expected to do in the next 24-48 hours... we have been in contact at CARCAH all day.

[Brent]

5:30pm TWO:

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES HAVE NOT BECOME
ANY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

[mattpetre]

To me this storm is looking more and more similar to what Dean was doing at this location in the Atlantic. If things are still as favorable for development as people think, then I can't see why this one isn't going to explode at some point too. Just my two cents before heading home today...

[RL3AO]

Thanks pojo. Keep us updated.

I love this time of day. Convection starts to wane because of diurnal minimum and the "its dead...next wave" posts start.

[Acral]

Yuppers, it's dead now. Next Wave Puh-leeze!

[skysummit]

Thanks pojo. Keep us updated.

I love this time of day. Convection starts to wane because of diurnal minimum and the "its dead...next wave" posts start.

No joke...those comments of "it's dead", "poof", and "Next!" have got to be the most annoying posts IMO. I mean, if you can't think of anything intelligent to post, then just don't post. However, like you said, it is this "time" of day so let them begin I guess...

[fci]

Thanks pojo. Keep us updated.

I love this time of day. Convection starts to wane because of diurnal minimum and the "its dead...next wave" posts start.

No joke...those comments of "it's dead", "poof", and "Next!" have got to be the most annoying posts IMO. I mean, if you can't think of anything intelligent to post, then just don't post. However, like you said, it is this "time" of day so let them begin I guess...

Tropical enthusiasts got spoiled two years ago when just about EVERYTHING went BOOM.
So, they are frustrated with the sputtering 2007 season.
I'd cut them some slack and just ignore the "season cancel" posts.

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 282004
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
404 PM AST TUE AUG 28 2007

.DISCUSSION...A PASSING TROPICAL WAVE...WITH ITS AXIS OVER EASTERN
PUERTO RICO...IS HELPING TO INDUCE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR AND NORTHERN PUERTO RICO AT THIS
TIME. EXPECT THIS WAVE TO CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...AND FOR WEATHER TO IMPROVE FROM EAST TO WEST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DRIER AIR BEHIND THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBLY A
LITTLE HAZE MIXED IN. OPTED TO KEEP HAZE OUT OF THE FORECAST AS IT
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE DENSE ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TOMORROW.

THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY NEAR 40 WEST...IS CURRENTLY A
FEATURE OF INTEREST. MOST OF THE CURRENT GUIDANCE BRINGS AND OPEN
WAVE ACROSS THE ISLANDS IN THE FRIDAY TO SATURDAY TIME
PERIOD...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WEATHER
ACROSS THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
WAVE CLOSELY AS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH MOST LIKELY THIS
SCENARIO WOULD TAKE IT WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO INHERITED EXTENDED
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.

From the San Juan NWS discussion.

[Acral]

In all seriousness, as far as I am concerned we can call it a season and shut down the tropics right now... but since that ain't likely to happen... I'll keep watching the waves, as they keep rolling one or four will likely spin up and so forth and so on.

This one, 94L, looks about as pathetic as baby Dean did, but like the NHC is saying, it now has some running room.

[Blown Away]

Still looks pretty good for an Invest, broad circulation near 11N/42W. It will be early September by the time 94L makes it to the Caribbean and if it develops climatology says it's going to find some weakness before going into C America. If 94L turns into Felix it will be an issue or a close brush for the CONUS, IMHO.

[Derek Ortt]

No joke...those comments of "it's dead", "poof", and "Next!" have got to be the most annoying posts IMO

No, the most annoying are those saying something will develop when all meteorological data states otherwise. And they are far more frequent, which makes them tripily as annoying

[skysummit]

No joke...those comments of "it's dead", "poof", and "Next!" have got to be the most annoying posts IMO

No, the most annoying are those saying something will develop when all meteorological data states otherwise. And they are far more frequent, which makes them tripily as annoying

I've learned to ignore those posts because they're usually on one individual system at a time, when the other "season cancelled" type posts are implying they "think" they know what's going to happen for the next few months. Also, when posts come up such as "next", and so on, it's usually because convection has died down, and those posters are implying they don't believe anything will ever happen again with that particular system.

I guess everyone looks at it differently though.

I'm interested to see what 94 will look like in the morning. Right now cloud tops have warmed some, but it looks like it's covering a larger over all area than it was this morning.

[Sanibel]

It died way down last night and came back. It could be the surrounding synoptic blew it apart. A small swirl dissipated here a few days ago. Only thing we can do is look for refire. Maybe it's just changing gears.

[skysummit]

It died way down last night and came back. It could be the surrounding synoptic blew it apart. A small swirl dissipated here a few days ago. Only thing we can do is look for refire. Maybe it's just changing gears.

I like that..."just changing gears"

The southern half of the wave looks better to me this afternoon. There are small areas of deeper convection popping up along the southern periphery. If this happens over the next few hours into tonight in the northern periphery, I think we may be in for a surprise in the morning.

[SouthFloridawx]

Something tells me, it's definitely in the beginning stages of intensifying. The envelope of moisture has expanded throughout the day and appears as though it's keeping the dry air, from being as intrusive.

Just a hunch, nothing too much to back it up except for experience watching these things.