Invest 94L,Near Windwards-Discussions

[caribepr]

AND OPEN
WAVE ACROSS THE ISLANDS IN THE FRIDAY TO SATURDAY TIME
PERIOD...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WEATHER
ACROSS THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
WAVE CLOSELY AS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH MOST LIKELY THIS
SCENARIO WOULD TAKE IT WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO INHERITED EXTENDED
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.[/b]

From the San Juan NWS discussion.

So...what do you think Luis? I've got two choices here...one, to stay for Labor Day and get the last business of the season...the other, to go to Jost Van Dyke for a memorial service for a friend who would be laughing that I'm having a dilemma of "earn money or have a great time remembering" what a funny, crazy guy he was with people from all over the islands...he'd say, do both, MJ, bring your hot sauce and sell it!! But...he was crazy You think we'll have some weather?
And then of course, the non-choice...leaving on the 4th for that continent above us...wondering what might be next. I hate leaving in September

[cycloneye]

AND OPEN
WAVE ACROSS THE ISLANDS IN THE FRIDAY TO SATURDAY TIME
PERIOD...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WEATHER
ACROSS THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
WAVE CLOSELY AS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH MOST LIKELY THIS
SCENARIO WOULD TAKE IT WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO INHERITED EXTENDED
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.[/b]

From the San Juan NWS discussion.

So...what do you think Luis? I've got two choices here...one, to stay for Labor Day and get the last business of the season...the other, to go to Jost Van Dyke for a memorial service for a friend who would be laughing that I'm having a dilemma of "earn money or have a great time remembering" what a funny, crazy guy he was with people from all over the islands...he'd say, do both, MJ, bring your hot sauce and sell it!! But...he was crazy You think we'll have some weather?
And then of course, the non-choice...leaving on the 4th for that continent above us...wondering what might be next. I hate leaving in September

I am with the NWS of San Juan on this.Due to uncertaintys in terms of the enviroment it can get as it nears the Caribbean,I am in the range of strong wave to a TD as it moves thru our longitud.But being the time of the year,late August,going into early September,anything can happen.My best advice for you is to prepare for the worse case scenario,that being this a Tropical Storm or more,to the best,that is a wave to a TD.In any case we will get bands of rain with gusts moving thru depending on what strengh and track this comes into the Caribbean,we can get more or less bad weather.

[ConvergenceZone]

and I promise I won't make any season cancel posts until September 10th. If by then, no storms have formed and no storms are on the horizon, then by all means, the door is closing, but not until around that time frame...

[windstorm99]

and I promise I won't make any season cancel posts until September 10th. If by then, no storms have formed and no storms are on the horizon, then by all means, the door is closing, but not until around that time frame...

You might want to hold of on that call with a developing la nina the season things may run into late october or even early november.Adrian

[Regit]

and I promise I won't make any season cancel posts until September 10th. If by then, no storms have formed and no storms are on the horizon, then by all means, the door is closing, but not until around that time frame...

We'd be on pace with 1954, the season that saw October produce Hurricane Hazel.

[SoonerMaximus]

It's funny how this board slows down after everyone gets off of work.
Storm2k - "the working man's friend."


Learning a ton, glad I found the best forum from which to glean great info.

[windstorm99]

Convection through the late afternoon hours has been on the decrease....Lets see what the overnight hours bring as it runs into a more favorable conditions.

FNMOC IR loop-

[Buck]

Guys, we've seen in recent years that there is no formula. At least anymore. 2005 saw climatology go out the door. We could have an average start, then nothing in September, then all hell breaks loose in October and November. You just never know. We get signs of what might happen next, but "season cancel" predictions are useless and just take up forum space.

[ConvergenceZone]

Guys, we've seen in recent years that there is no formula. At least anymore. 2005 saw climatology go out the door. We could have an average start, then nothing in September, then all hell breaks loose in October and November. You just never know. We get signs of what might happen next, but "season cancel" predictions are useless and just take up forum space.

True, every season is unique, but you got to admit, the season cancel posts were valid for last year... . The skeptics gave rough responses, but finally they gave in and admitted it

[Extremecane]

Even though it lost convection its more organized and im starting to see more of a circulation. I remember dean doing the same thing when it lost its convection but started to get more organized. Wait till it gets another pulse of convection

[mattpetre]

I've had a horrible record so far and I would like to keep it up by saying that I think this thing is going to bomb by this time tomorrow night. I'm including an animated gif that includes 94L as the first frame and then 3 subsequent frames of Dean at approximately 5 hours before now, now, and tomorrow at this time. If this does nothing like Dean, then I think it's chances are much less and I'll once again concede to the models, at least till it reaches the W. Carrib.

[clfenwi]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE AUG 28 2007

...


A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES ALONG 40W/41W S OF 18N. A 1010 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE
AXIS NEAR 10N. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE HAVE NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE
TROPICAL N ATLC WED NIGHT OR THU...AND INTO THE E CARIBBEAN FRI
AND SAT.

[wxmann_91]

Guys, we've seen in recent years that there is no formula. At least anymore. 2005 saw climatology go out the door. We could have an average start, then nothing in September, then all hell breaks loose in October and November. You just never know. We get signs of what might happen next, but "season cancel" predictions are useless and just take up forum space.

True, every season is unique, but you got to admit, the season cancel posts were valid for last year... . The skeptics gave rough responses, but finally they gave in and admitted it

Last year was an El Nino, which limits late season activity. This year is a La Nina, which enhances late-season activity.

[fci]

and I promise I won't make any season cancel posts until September 10th. If by then, no storms have formed and no storms are on the horizon, then by all means, the door is closing, but not until around that time frame...

I PROMISE you that there will be named storms prior to September 10th.

(Oh, I am so bold in my prediction.....)

[Tropics Guy]

94L looking pretty pathetic, but it may refire more convection near the center later tonight.

[webke]

and I promise I won't make any season cancel posts until September 10th. If by then, no storms have formed and no storms are on the horizon, then by all means, the door is closing, but not until around that time frame...

We'd be on pace with 1954, the season that saw October produce Hurricane Hazel.

Regit,
Whatever history shows do not mention Hazel here in NMB SC it still leaves a bad memory with a lot of my family. Let this thing become a fish and all that follow her this season.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 290053
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0053 UTC WED AUG 29 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942007) 20070829 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070829 0000 070829 1200 070830 0000 070830 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.9N 42.0W 11.4N 44.9W 12.2N 47.5W 12.9N 50.2W
BAMD 10.9N 42.0W 11.2N 44.2W 11.3N 46.2W 11.3N 48.3W
BAMM 10.9N 42.0W 11.3N 44.3W 11.6N 46.6W 11.9N 48.8W
LBAR 10.9N 42.0W 11.0N 44.1W 11.0N 46.4W 11.0N 48.8W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 43KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070831 0000 070901 0000 070902 0000 070903 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.7N 52.9W 15.0N 58.2W 15.9N 63.5W 16.3N 69.5W
BAMD 11.4N 50.3W 12.1N 54.3W 12.6N 57.8W 13.1N 60.5W
BAMM 12.2N 51.2W 13.0N 56.0W 13.5N 60.5W 13.9N 65.0W
LBAR 11.1N 51.3W 12.0N 56.9W 12.7N 62.2W 14.4N 66.0W
SHIP 49KTS 56KTS 60KTS 64KTS
DSHP 49KTS 56KTS 60KTS 64KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.9N LONCUR = 42.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 10.7N LONM12 = 40.0W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 10.6N LONM24 = 38.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


00:00z BAM Models.Speed is now much more slower 10kts 275 westward.

Any pro met who may want to chim in on what implications the reduction in speed means for the future of the system.

[hurricanetrack]

When the outlook calls for conditions to become more favorable in the coming days for 94L, what do you all think those conditions would be? In other words, what's wrong now that would not be wrong in a few days. How will conditions improve? Any thoughts?

[jhamps10]

00:00z BAM Models.Speed is now much more slower 10kts 275 westward.

Any pro met who may want to chim in on what implications the reduction in speed means for the future of the system.

I'm not a pro met, but I would think that a slower system would increase the chances of a possible recurve or fish. HOwever I have not looked at any upper air charts today to see if that appears possible right now, but it would mean a possible of it moving more WNW.

also if it's in an area of shear, which from reading other posts on here it may be in a bit of shear, and that a slower system, would keep it in that a bit longer, although not too much at all though.

AGAIN I'm not a pro met, and this is just my opinion and my interpetion.

[Jinkers]

I was watching nbc6 here in south florida at 6, and they said it was going to be favorable for development as it moves more to the west, so he says we must keep an eye on it, they led our weather segment with this system.