Bay of Campeche

[lrak]

we need a special tropical distrubance statement. Really though after watching that last satellite loop, I hope that that glob is moving West.

[lrak]

well just read the 8:05 and looks like we have to wait. Maybe bullish next time around.

[Tropics Guy]

Checking observations at Roatan Island on the north coast of Honduras, shows a brisk E wind at 25., so still no W winds in the area though the pressure is kinda low. Probably no closed low at the surface yet, just the mid levels.
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MHRO.html

TG

[HURAKAN]

Continues to look impressive.

[O Town]

Wouldn't this thing go over the Yucatan into the BOC and then onto Mexico and the Pacific with the steering pattern as it is now? I have to agree this thing looks better than 94L as of now.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm4.html

[HouTXmetro]

this has caught me off guard. Interested in steering currents.

[wxman57]

My first impression when I viewed a satellite image a few minutes ago was "Wow! This looks like it is developing!". But when I looped the satellite I can see that the burst of convection is occurring on the southeast side of an upper-level low, just where you'd expect it to occur. The apparent northward motion of the blob of convection is due to its rotation around the upper low. Though it does give the impression of developing, I don't think that we're seeing anything more than a temporary hot spot. Still, it does look better than 94L....

[Stratosphere747]

As of now the steering currents will take whatever this mess is into Mexico.

Something would have to form more towards the Yucatan Channel for a threat for the CONUS. Of course IMO.

[Dean4Storms]

The NHC has a floater on it now and they call it just Invest attm.

[wxman57]

Just made a surface plot in GARP and all winds are E-ESE through the blob. No evidence of any rotation, and pressures are relatively high in the area.

[Dean4Storms]

My first impression when I viewed a satellite image a few minutes ago was "Wow! This looks like it is developing!". But when I looped the satellite I can see that the burst of convection is occurring on the southeast side of an upper-level low, just where you'd expect it to occur. The apparent northward motion of the blob of convection is due to its rotation around the upper low. Though it does give the impression of developing, I don't think that we're seeing anything more than a temporary hot spot. Still, it does look better than 94L....

A very weak ULL at that, barely discernable.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

[skysummit]

As of now the steering currents will take whatever this mess is into Mexico.

Something would have to form more towards the Yucatan Channel for a threat for the CONUS. Of course IMO.

Hmm....maybe it can get caught up in the southeast to northwest flow...

[MGC]

Just like last night, an TW interacting with an ULL. Very small chance for development.....MGC

[caneman]

I don't believe that weak ULL is having much impact on this system at all. I've seen plenty of systems in this area with a ULL off to WEst only aid in development. I would only give it a slim chance of development due to land inteaction more than I would the ULL. Anyone have a wind shear map?

[Sanibel]

People are forgetting the fact that a clear surface Low was attached to this system that went into Honduras. That ULL is very weak. This is an invest that is having trouble getting going after crossing land and relocating NW.

[Ed Mahmoud]

May not be anything there now, and it might be headed for the Yucatan, but that ULL to its West looks like it is trying to induce a 'short wave ridge' right over the storms, which should help any surface low that did try to form, IMHO.

[gatorcane]

Chances of development are small folks. MGC gives the reason above.

[skysummit]

Chances of development are small folks. MGC gives the reason above.

Yea, they may be small, but the ULL is not aiding in the convection just east of Belize. If it is, please show me how.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Chances of development are small folks. MGC gives the reason above.

Well, the Yucatan will slow it down, but with what looks like semi-favorable conditions aloft, I have a funny and non-professional feeling that a surface low will spin up about 12 hours before a landfall near Tampico, just like Disturbance 93L did, but probably never gets classified as a TD as it is moving onshore before it becomes obvious.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The new TWOAT is out, and except for the time, I don't think they changed a word from the previous TWOAT.