Invest 94L,Near Windwards-Discussions

[cycloneye]

This morning they were tracking towards Southamerica.Tonight they are more north.

[ROCK]

not sure about 10knots that seems slow to me...pretty set in stone this will track west for the next few days with that ridge to the north...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm6.html

[superfly]

When the outlook calls for conditions to become more favorable in the coming days for 94L, what do you all think those conditions would be? In other words, what's wrong now that would not be wrong in a few days. How will conditions improve? Any thoughts?

Warmer SSTs

['CaneFreak]

When the outlook calls for conditions to become more favorable in the coming days for 94L, what do you all think those conditions would be? In other words, what's wrong now that would not be wrong in a few days. How will conditions improve? Any thoughts?

Warmer SSTs

And even moister conditions...its not in an unfavorable environment now as far as the moisture levels are concerned but later in the period it will be even moister...also shear will drop from 5 to 10 knots to near no shear under the upper level ridge over the central Atlantic. Not sure what the models are seeing that could slow the system down...I see a 18 knot westerly motion at about 275 to 280 for the next 4 to 5 days and THEN it may begin to slow down a bit like Dean did once it reached the eastern Caribbean. Otherwise...I AM CLUELESS!!!!

[MWatkins]

I wasn't sold on the fast movement earlier today. I honestly don't think it was moving that fast...but instead the "center" was so poorly defined...and the system was stretched out in the horiziontal...

SAB and TAFB fixes are pretty far apart:

TAFB: 10.5N 41.0W
SAB: 11.1N 41.6W

And east of the 0Z model initialization.

Not sure waht is going on right now but whatever it is...it isn't very organized.

MW

[windstorm99]

BAMS indeed have been trending north all day today.Dont like that forward speed at 10kts.

Does not look good tonight.

[windstorm99]

Wxman57 any thoughs on the forward speed at 10kts...

[skysummit]

[jaxfladude]

The US coastline seems safe for now at least until the powerful ridge that kept "Dean" well to the south of the US breaks down(hope it stays in place as long as possible)

[gatorcane]

wow models are trending North interesting...

[Sanibel]

It expanded and took in the ridge air from above and choked its tropical fuel mix. Should regroup and fire a center burst tonight (if it wasn't done in by those conditions).

[Blown Away]

If the circulation is near 11N/42W, the convection is building nicely to the west and south.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[skysummit]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT TUE AUG 28 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM HONDURAS
NORTHWARD TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE. THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES REMAIN LIMITED
THIS EVENING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA IS PRODUCING A SMALL AREA
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTHWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER RHOME

[jaxfladude]

How soon *if at all* will RECON and the NOAA Gulfstream IV fight crews can do their thing

[Derek Ortt]

possible NOAA flight on Friday

[RL3AO]

How soon *if at all* will RECON and the NOAA Gulfstream IV fight crews can do their thing

55W.

[jaxfladude]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT TUE AUG 28 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM HONDURAS
NORTHWARD TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE. THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES REMAIN LIMITED
THIS EVENING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA IS PRODUCING A SMALL AREA
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTHWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER RHOME

And take a swipe at some part of the east coast of Florida down the road?

[boca]

How soon *if at all* will RECON and the NOAA Gulfstream IV fight crews can do their thing

I believe 94L has to get to 55W before a recon go fly into it. I do smell a burst from what I saw on the floater.

[ConvergenceZone]

The US coastline seems safe for now at least until the powerful ridge that kept "Dean" well to the south of the US breaks down(hope it stays in place as long as possible)

While I think the east coast is safe, I don't think the Gulf is. I can't see that same ridge being exactly in the same place by the time this storm(if it develops) reaches the gulf(if it goes there)...USA was fairly lucky at the timing and placement of the ridge that intercepted Dean...

[Ed Mahmoud]

They didn't change a letter of the TWOAT except for the time, did they, from the previous one.?.?