Bay of Campeche

[skysummit]

Yea, this should move into the Yucatan before anything can really happen. Maybe it'll get another shot in the BoC.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I've driven through Houma, but never stopped. I spent a week offshore out of Cocodrie (well, on an inland barge), and came back to a flat tire with a split sidewall. Roads were pretty rough.

Had to drive all the way back to Lafayette on a donut.


I don't care if it adds 5 pounds to the weight of a car, no car should carry a donut as a spare.

A little OT here.

[Sanibel]

There was a surface Low attached to this -BUT- come to think of it, it is possible the convection got stripped off the main disturbance and taken up by the ULL in pseudo curvature. Myself, I think this will develop, but we'll see tomorrow when we can see what is on the surface on visible.

[skysummit]

I've driven through Houma, but never stopped. I spent a week offshore out of Cocodrie (well, on an inland barge), and came back to a flat tire with a split sidewall. Roads were pretty rough.

Had to drive all the way back to Lafayette on a donut.


I don't care if it adds 5 pounds to the weight of a car, no car should carry a donut as a spare.

A little OT here.

Cool...yea, little ole' Houma has really grown since Katrina. That's good and bad though I've been to Houston, many, many, MANY times

[mattpetre]

I'm going to test a theory I have about me being 100% wrong all the time so far this year and say that NOTHING tropical storm wise is going to come of this area... if this thing wakes up and heads to the US, then I'm going to quit thinking I have any clue as to what might happen with a storm.

[wxman57]

I'm going to test a theory I have about me being 100% wrong all the time so far this year and say that NOTHING tropical storm wise is going to come of this area... if this thing wakes up and heads to the US, then I'm going to quit thinking I have any clue as to what might happen with a storm.

You may be right this time.

[GeneratorPower]

I'm going to test a theory I have about me being 100% wrong all the time so far this year and say that NOTHING tropical storm wise is going to come of this area... if this thing wakes up and heads to the US, then I'm going to quit thinking I have any clue as to what might happen with a storm.

You are absolutely cracking me up! haha

[srainhoutx]

I'm going to test a theory I have about me being 100% wrong all the time so far this year and say that NOTHING tropical storm wise is going to come of this area... if this thing wakes up and heads to the US, then I'm going to quit thinking I have any clue as to what might happen with a storm.

You may be right this time.

[HeeBGBz]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

Why does it look like it's pulling north when everyone says it's going west?

[SouthFloridawx]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

Why does it look like it's pulling north when everyone says it's going west?

It better fire up real quick, form a circulation, be initiated as in invest, become a tropical depression in the next 24 hours... Otherwise it's headed to the Pacific.

And as I am typing this, ssd site as this labeled as in Invest...

It doesn't look horrible though...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float2.html

Also... wnw would be a pretty good bet... iffffff, ifffff it can continue to hold convection long enough to develop a circulation.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W/86W S OF 23N MOVING W 10 KT. A
LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION IS TO THE W OF THE WAVE AXIS
OVER BELIZE WITH AN UPPER HIGH NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 16N-23N
BETWEEN 82W-89W.

[tailgater]

Big blow up over Belize this morning, my guess, it'll be another one developing as it comes ashore near Tuxpan.

[Sanibel]

I don't want to argue details, but that big blow-up over Belize is the Low center which proves this isn't just a ULL phenomenon. That's the disturbance center. The problem is it is back over land again. We'll see if it makes it to BOC.

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Weather Outlook


Statement as of 11:30 am EDT on August 29, 2007

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

A tropical wave located about 900 miles east of the Windward Islands
is producing showers and thunderstorms. Although this activity is
currently disorganized...environmental conditions are expected to
gradually become more favorable for development as the system moves
westward at 15 to 20 mph.

An area of disturbed weather over the western Atlantic is primarily
associated with a non-tropical low centered about 260 miles
southeast of Charleston South Carolina. Upper-level winds could
become a little more favorable for development during the next few
days...and an Air Force plane is ready to investigate the system on
Thursday...if necessary. The low is expected to drift southward.

Showers and thunderstorms primarily located over the Yucatan
Peninsula are associated with a tropical wave. This activity is
expected to move over the Bay of Campeche during the next day or so
and will be monitored for any signs of development.

Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.

$$

Forecaster Avila/Blake

[lrak]

monitored, unbelievable they even said that.

[CrazyC83]

Maybe this will be called 96L soon?

[RL3AO]

Maybe once it gets back over water.

[Portastorm]

This system right now looks a lot more impressive than 94L. Wow!

The satellite loops suggest a northwest movement which would give it some time over the western Gulf to spin up some, yet I know TPC says the wave is moving west. Regardless, it is hard to deny what you can see and clearly it is moving more NW than W. Who knows, maybe it'll enhance our already-high rain chances for this weekend here in south-central Texas!

[Nimbus]

Once this area gets back out over the BOC we should see an invest.

It hasn't been very exciting to watch due to all the land interaction thus far, but it could be of concern to South Texas and the Tex/Mex oil rigs.

94L is developing so slowly under that dry ridge that this area might beat it to become Felix.

Crude oil is currently up $1.73 a Barrel and that is not due to 94L.

[Sanibel]

Looks to be developing, but still can't locate the center?

BOC will tell.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This thing won't develop intill its into the BOC. Its over the Yucatan right now. Looks pretty good with the big area of convection. Lets see if it can develop into a weak system once over the BOC in 12 hours.