Invest 94L,Near Windwards-Discussions

[windstorm99]

The US coastline seems safe for now at least until the powerful ridge that kept "Dean" well to the south of the US breaks down(hope it stays in place as long as possible)

While I think the east coast is safe, I don't think the Gulf is. I can't see that same ridge being exactly in the same place by the time this storm(if it develops) reaches the gulf(if it goes there)...USA was fairly lucky at the timing and placement of the ridge that intercepted Dean...

What a second how can we say the eastcoast is safe when its still very early in the ball game.Were this system ends up is anybodys guess at the present time.

[AtlanticWind]

Seems to me it looks a little better tonight , could be getting ready for a burst .

[jaxfladude]

The US coastline seems safe for now at least until the powerful ridge that kept "Dean" well to the south of the US breaks down(hope it stays in place as long as possible)

While I think the east coast is safe, I don't think the Gulf is. I can't see that same ridge being exactly in the same place by the time this storm(if it develops) reaches the gulf(if it goes there)...USA was fairly lucky at the timing and placement of the ridge that intercepted Dean...

The Gulf as suffered enough these past few years, they have had bad to catastrophic hurricanes and a retired TS since 2001, and history before is replete with historic hurricanes in the Gulf(man, I miss those so called "quiet seasons")...

[boca]

The US coastline seems safe for now at least until the powerful ridge that kept "Dean" well to the south of the US breaks down(hope it stays in place as long as possible)

While I think the east coast is safe, I don't think the Gulf is. I can't see that same ridge being exactly in the same place by the time this storm(if it develops) reaches the gulf(if it goes there)...USA was fairly lucky at the timing and placement of the ridge that intercepted Dean...

What a second how can we say the eastcoast is safe when its still very early in the ball game.Were this system ends up is anybodys guess at the present time.

True the models seem to have trended a little north from this morning along the South American coast. Mexico to Maine has to watch 94L as of now.

[punkyg]

Just wondering, but when is the next quikscat pass?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Recon tasking finally hit the interweb

NOUS42 KNHC 281445
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT TUE 28 AUGUST 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 29/1100Z TO 30/1100Z AUGUST 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-096

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
AT 31/1800Z NEAR 13N 58W.

II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
SEF

[caneman]

ir's out but didn't really cover this area.

[Derek Ortt]

NOAA may be deploying to Barbados, so they could possibly reach the storm farther to the east if this moves like a turtle, but I do not see that scenario happning

[wxman57]

Wxman57 any thoughs on the forward speed at 10kts...

Haven't been looking at it since I headed out on my bike around 5pm. Thunderstorms chased me around until 6:30pm when I took cover at an H-E-B and had my wife come pick me up. Don't mind a bit of rain when it's in the 90s but I can live without the lightning. One strike hit the parking lot about 100 feet away from me as I was on the phone with my wife. Cut off the connection.

Seems a bit odd that it would be tracking at 18-20 kts for 3-4 days then slow to a crawl beneath a rather strong ridge. I think that the NHC is having a hard time positioning any "center" so they don't have a good handle on the speed of advance. Consider that initializing the models at 10 kts would have a significant impact on the projected tracks (slower = more WNW). So if the forward speed estimate is wrong, the model projections are likely wrong.

Bottom line is it's quite weak tonight - too weak to really get a good read on the forward speed. Recon MAY go out Friday to investigate as it nears the eastern Caribbean. I don't think it'll develop before then.

[GeneratorPower]

I just about died laughing when I found this Duracell hurricane-simulator website http://www.rulethestorm.com/

I know it's off topic. But it's worth it this time!

[Recurve]

I'm wondering about the low thingy off the carolinas weakening the atl ridge before getting swept away with this wave approaching the area and possibly developing a high fills back in. I do not want to see anything drift north of the Antilles and get stuck on a NW track in the hot zone, if you know what I mean.

[CrazyC83]

I'm wondering about the low thingy off the carolinas weakening the atl ridge before getting swept away with this wave approaching the area and possibly developing a high fills back in. I do not want to see anything drift north of the Antilles and get stuck on a NW track in the hot zone, if you know what I mean.

That has the best potential of being a ridge-breaker and sending this northward. Otherwise, I see it taking the same route Dean took.

[Sanibel]

We'll see what the visible shows as far as any center tomorrow.

This one could be busted down and blown apart.

[SouthFloridawx]

Really there shouldn't be any speculation on the long term track of a system, that is hardly organized.

Secondly this ridge breaker that you speak of is at the tail end of a front... There is an ULL to the East of the dying front. However, if anything were to form at the surface off of the Carolina's, it should have too much effect on a 500mb ridge. Storms tend to ride the ridge until they find a weak point...

I would be more concerned about the ULL that is between 20-30N and 60-70W, as far as potential movement of this ill defined area of low pressure. The ULL might not even have much effect on the track of the wave itself, unless the low deepens and is more in tune with the mid-upper levels, where the Mid-Upper Level Low is located.

The thing with Dean was, most of the models were fairly/moderately consistent with the track, (I don't mean every run of every model) but the average of them showed him moving to the west, and the deal breaker with Dean was dependant on that ULL in the Gulf, whether it moved west, and it did.

I wouldn't watch so much with surface features ahead of a system trailing a couple thousand miles behind. Watch GFS in the upper levels in the long range forecasts to see if you see any similarities, that may end up effecting the ridge. Even though GFS is, "horrible" at long range forecasts... It did get Dean fairly well....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor1.html
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_wv_ls_0.html
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm5.html

94L is sitting under a developing/weak upper ridge, I wonder if the SAL really is suppressing convection that much...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html

I'm wondering about the low thingy off the carolinas weakening the atl ridge before getting swept away with this wave approaching the area and possibly developing a high fills back in. I do not want to see anything drift north of the Antilles and get stuck on a NW track in the hot zone, if you know what I mean.

That has the best potential of being a ridge-breaker and sending this northward. Otherwise, I see it taking the same route Dean took.

[DrewFL]

Possible low level invest RECON flight at 13 and 58.

Yeah, there's three planes in St. Croix. Anything near 50 W is fair game.

[abajan]

...Don't mind a bit of rain when it's in the 90s but I can live without the lightning. One strike hit the parking lot about 100 feet away from me as I was on the phone with my wife. Cut off the connection...

That's mighty close, Brother!
Thank God you're still with us.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It has nice shape to it with convection forming near the "center" but overall mid level dry air will be a program. What I mean partly by dry air is the fact it is in a stable enviroment...This Subtropical ridge is amazingly strong.

There is a chance we could get another mini storm to develop and move through the caribbean,.

I would watch the system off NC for some development. That thing is looking good this morning. FSU shows a warm core to.

[Meso]

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND
THE LESSER ANTILLES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

[DrewFL]

And that is obviously a forecast....who wrote it please?

[Thunder44]

And that is obviously a forecast....who wrote it please?

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