Tropical Wave About To Exit Africa

[Meso]

I think this may be the one that the Ukmet and some other models have been developing.Could be the one that exited the coast yesterday but 00z Ukmet shows it around the C.Verdes around 24 hours,And the wave that moved off yesterday is already at that area.
Clouds tops are really cold with this wave,lets once again see what happens when it moves offland

[punkyg]

I gots you a newer pic. i saw the one you have up there last night.

[Meso]

Ah yes,thanks. I noticed after I posted that the other image is not updating.Still looking fairly good though.

[SouthFloridawx]

Yeah, looking at the cyclone phase page, I would say this is the one that the models develop.

[punkyg]

Aw shoot Meso looks like that wave you like is fizzling, but its ok 94L looks better. let me get you a soda.

[skysummit]

No punky...it's not fizzling. It's HUGE. Wait till it gets completely offshore.

[punkyg]

Okay when its off shore it'll do a Dean on us and develop.


is there alot of models developing this like with Dean.

[ConvergenceZone]

Invest 94L is boring the heck out of me....Either this one that's just emerging or the other one over the mainland will develop. If not, then something is seriously wrong with the tropics. As we will be into the first week of September by then...

[HURAKAN]

Invest 94L is boring the heck out of me....Either this one that's just emerging or the other one over the mainland will develop. If not, then something is seriously wrong with the tropics. As we will be into the first week of September by then...

Hurricane Season: 183 days.

No. of Storms: 11

Ave. # of days that a storm lasts: ~ 4 days.

11 x 4 = 44 days.

183 / 100 = 44 / X

X = 4400 / 183

X = 24%

Which means that in an average season we should see nothing 76% of the time.

____________________________________________________

2007:

Average forecast: 15 storms

15 x 4 = 60

X = 6000 / 183

X = 33%

If we get 15 storms this season, we should still expect 67% of nothingness!!

_____________________________________________________

Conclusion: PEOPLE, CALM DOWN!!!

[ConvergenceZone]

Invest 94L is boring the heck out of me....Either this one that's just emerging or the other one over the mainland will develop. If not, then something is seriously wrong with the tropics. As we will be into the first week of September by then...

Hurricane Season: 183 days.

No. of Storms: 11

Ave. # of days that a storm lasts: ~ 4 days.

11 x 4 = 44 days.

183 / 100 = 44 / X

X = 4400 / 183

X = 24%

Which means that in an average season we should see nothing 76% of the time.

____________________________________________________

2007:

Average forecast: 15 storms

15 x 4 = 60

X = 6000 / 183

X = 33%

If we get 15 storms this season, we should still expect 67% of nothingness!!

_____________________________________________________

Conclusion: PEOPLE, CALM DOWN!!!

Hey, we are trackers, that's what we do, take away our drug and we go crazy

[HURAKAN]

BTW, I didn't take into account that most of the time TC come in bunches and not separately. So, the number of storm days should be reduced.

[RL3AO]

I think if you have two tropical storms, it gets counted as two storm days.

[CrazyC83]

This wave is emerging in the water now. All the SAL seems to be to the north right now...giving it room to develop before Cape Verde...

[ronjon]

Pretty healthy wave over west Africa now - several of the globals including GFS develop this one in 3-4 days.

[Meso]

Looks good,will probably need to monitored.Last time I checked SAL was low too and the environment should be pretty moist ahead of it due to Invest 98L

[punkyg]

Wow look at that huge wave right behind the wave thats coming off.