Invest 95L off SC/GA coast:=Gone from NRL

[windstorm99]

95L could pose a threat to the florida coast in the coming days as steering currents will be very weak and this thing will just be drifting around.

[windstorm99]

Appears to be drifting to the south at a pretty good clip.

[fci]

Appears to be drifting to the south at a pretty good clip.

OK, I am being a wiseguy here but doesn't "drifting" imply slow movement?

If so, how can something "drift" at a "pretty good clip"?

Just curious......

[windstorm99]

Appears to be drifting to the south at a pretty good clip.

OK, I am being a wiseguy here but doesn't "drifting" imply slow movement?

If so, how can something "drift" at a "pretty good clip"?

Just curious......

We'll thats what i see...and iam right to share my opinion correct?Overall steering curents will be weak and 95L will likely be drifting around in the coming days.

[marcane_1973]

Shouldn't be a problem for the East coast. A very strong cold front will be moving through soon. I can't wait. Our high temps are gonna drop 10 degrees in N.C. with a low of 63 sat night. This system would have to travel pretty far south to not catch a ride with this strong front. What have the models been showing?

[HeeBGBz]

Is the convection near 21n 68w a part of 95L or is it a separate entity?

[lrak]

Is the convection near 21n 68w a part of 95L or is it a separate entity?

totally different.

[lrak]

looks like it might get sucked up into 95L

[storms in NC]

It seem like there is quite a few on here who say they need the rain. It sure would be nice to get some good rain. But with this front coming though it is going to leave us and go fishing.

[windstorm99]

[wxman57]

The shear monster is eating 95L this afternoon. Deepening upper trof right over the disturbance. Not much chance of development until if/when the trof weakens. It'll probably have to cut off then wind down. Not sure that 95L will survive that long, but models indicate new development east of Florida early next week.

[BensonTCwatcher]

The shear monster is eating 95L this afternoon. Deepening upper trof right over the disturbance. Not much chance of development until if/when the trof weakens. It'll probably have to cut off then wind down. Not sure that 95L will survive that long, but models indicate new development east of Florida early next week.

Being so close, I watch that area a bit. There have been a few circulations develop there in the last week and a 1/2 but all have encountered dry air, trof, or ULL so they have not been able to produce the convention and convergence (other than a burst or two) Neverless a persistent circ. over the gulf stream as upper air conditions improve and we could even see a TS that close to the coast. Be interesting to see if the models verfiy.

[PhillyWX]

If there is something that has a good chance of developing in the Atlantic at the moment is this system. Very similar kind of development experienced Florence in 2000.

That's a very good analog for this storm IF it develops. Shear is a bit of a concern though.

[cycloneye]

[bA LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL FRONTAL LOW
CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY...IF NECESSARY. THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD.
][/b]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1513.shtml

5:30 PM EDT TWO for 95L.

[ROCK]

convection has been blown off to the east......just a naked swirk right now dropping south.....needs to refire tonight and get into some less hostile shear if it wants to survive....reminds me of Chris last year somewhat....

[sfwx]

weather.gov
National Weather Service

Area Forecast Discussion

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
240 PM EDT WED AUG 29 2007

.DISCUSSION...

OVERNIGHT...SHRA FOCUSING ON THE NW-SE ORIENTED CONVG BAND...WHICH
IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING A LEE-ORL-MLB LINE AND PUSHING QUICKLY SWD.
EXTRAPOLATING IT`S MOVEMENT PLACES IT OVER THE FAR SRN CWA BY 00Z...
SO HAVE LIMITED TEMPORAL/SPATIAL RANGE OF EARLY EVENING SHRA TO NO
LATER THAN 01Z OVER LAND/03Z OVER WATER...FROM ABOUT FPR SWD. WITH
DEARTH OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM OVER THE ATLC...HAVE CLEARED OUT SKIES
MUCH MORE OVERNIGHT AND REMOVED SHRA OVER THE ATLC WATERS.

THU-FRI...AN EXPOSED LL CENTER CURRENTLY NEAR 30.1N AND 76W IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A SOUTH DRIFT ON THU...BECOMING SITUATED JUST N
OF THE BAHAMAS BY EARLY FRI. AIR FORCE HURR HUNTERS ARE TENTATIVELY
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM DURING A FIRST FLIGHT EARLY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE LATEST GFS RUN KEEPS FEATURE JUST OFF THE FL
COAST WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT THROUGH FRI THEN BEGINS A SLOW NE DRIFT
OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT STILL REMAINING IN GENERAL PROXIMITY OT THE
REGION. THERE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SYSTEM TO
LINGER A LITTLE LONGER NEAR THE FL COAST AS INDICATED BY NHC
OBJECTIVE AIDS AS WELL AS THE LATEST GFDL SOLN. WITH THIS IN MIND
THE LT ELEMENTS REMAIN SUBJECT TO FUTURE DEVELOPMENT OF SYSTEM. WV
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW QUITE A LOT OF DRY AIR INGESTING ONTO THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION WHICH WOULD HINDER DEVELOPMENT
IN THE SHORT TERM. WITH THE AREA ON THE DRYER SIDE OF SYS AND WL
KEEP JUST A SCT POP IN FCST OVER MARINE AND LAND AREAS DURING THE
DAYTIME PERIODS WITH CONTINUED CHANCE OF ISOLD PRECIP AT THE COAST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE OUT OF THE
NORTH @ THE COAST AND AROUND 10 MPH INLAND WITH HIGHER AFTERNOON
GUSTS WITH DECENT DRYING OVER THE INTERIOR IN THE AFTERNOONS DUE TO
NLY COMPONENT.

EXTENDED...FORECAST SHOWS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AND WL FORECAST GFS
MOTION TO SYS IN LINE W/ HPC SFC PROGS AS WELL WITH SLOW NE TO E
MOVEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE AWAY FROM AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF SYSTEM INITIALLY RESTRICTS MOVEMENT AWAY
FROM THE AREA BUT AS HIGH MOVES AWAY OVER THE OPEN ATLC THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE FROM THE REGION ON TUE. WL KEEP ISOLD SCT
POPS IN FCST WITH SOME DRYING BY MIDWEEK AS STABLE AIRMASS FROM
MARINE AREA MOVES INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW.


.

.MARINE...N-NE WIND SURGE AROUND 15KT BEHIND SWD MOVING BDRY IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH SEAS UP TO AROUND 4FT AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT. GIVEN LACK OF UPSTREAM CLOUDS/SHRA ON RADAR/VIS SAT
IMAGERY...HAVE TAKEN OUT PRECIP OVER THE ATLC AFTER 03Z. BREEZY
CONDITIONS OVER THE MARINE AREA THU-FRI WITH ADJUSTMENTS DEPENDING
ON POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRAWING CLOSER TO THE
MARINE AREA. NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME BUT ANY
INCREASE IN WINDS WOULD REQUIRE CAUTION STATEMENTS IN LATER
FORECASTS.


SHORT TERM...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST

[storms in NC]

FXUS62 KILM 291917
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
317 PM EDT WED AUG 29 2007


. ANOTHER WILDCARD IS THE STRENGTH/POSITION OF
LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST AND ITS POSSIBLE INFLUENCE ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR/DRY AIR ADVECTION. MON-WED LOOK DRY WITH A
POORLY DEFINED HIGH STILL TO THE NORTH AND VERY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW.

[windstorm99]

Here an image i made of 95L showing the beating its takeing tonight...Almost a naked swirl.

[Cyclone1]

HURAKAN, it's not tonight yet. It's still today. I say that because tonight, it could flare up with the advantage of the duirnal maximum.

[CrazyC83]

It has a circulation but no convection. Looks like a very weak tropical low at this point.