Tropical Storm FITOW (WPAC): Disc, Analysis & Imagery

[RL3AO]

Everything is a super typhoon in the Pacific it seems.

[CrazyC83]

Everything is a super typhoon in the Pacific it seems.

It is not hard for storms to become super typhoons in the WPac...there is so much warm water around...

[Chacor]

Everything is a super typhoon in the Pacific it seems.

It is not hard for storms to become super typhoons in the WPac...there is so much warm water around...

JTWC is progging this to become an STY rather north (30N) however.

[Chacor]

Still an STS.

WTPQ20 RJTD 300000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0709 FITOW (0709)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300000UTC 24.0N 156.8E FAIR
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 120NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 310000UTC 26.9N 155.6E 80NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 010000UTC 28.4N 152.9E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 020000UTC 29.0N 148.5E 220NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

[Typhoon Hunter]

Ummmm another trip to Japan maybe?

We'll see, too early to think about that but the thought did occur. Interesting how Fitow is recurving the wrong way.

It's just shy of typhoon status at 60kts according to JMA.

Not sure what to make of JTWC forecast. Is the ocean heat content up near Japan capable of sustaining storms of that strength?

[HurricaneBill]

Vera struck Japan as a Category 5 in 1959. Although, I'm sure many find that questionable.

For a more recent storm, Super Typhoon Oscar in 1995 gave Tokyo a bit of a scare.

[alan1961]

Good job those world athlectics championships are finnishing in Osaka this weekend or this could of been a disruption.

[P.K.]

RSMC Tokyo have the CI up to T4.5 so expect an upgrade soon.

[PhillyWX]

Ummmm another trip to Japan maybe?

We'll see, too early to think about that but the thought did occur. Interesting how Fitow is recurving the wrong way.

It's just shy of typhoon status at 60kts according to JMA.

Not sure what to make of JTWC forecast. Is the ocean heat content up near Japan capable of sustaining storms of that strength?

Not really...the TCHP graphics indicate most of the juice is south of 25 N



the 26 C isotherm runs deepest along 20 N. I don't see Super Typhoon potential from the graphics below but I have not looked at shear, etc. to make a determination at how strong this could get. It could be a Cat 3 I guess but I think a STY is a bit of a stretch.

[senorpepr]

Since nobody posted it, here's the 09Z advisory from JMA...

WTPQ20 RJTD 300900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0709 FITOW (0709)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300900UTC 25.1N 157.1E FAIR
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 120NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 310900UTC 27.6N 155.2E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 010600UTC 28.8N 152.7E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 020600UTC 29.0N 148.5E 220NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =
NNNN

[Chacor]

Upgraded.

521
WTPQ20 RJTD 301200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0709 FITOW (0709) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301200UTC 25.8N 156.9E FAIR
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 220NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 311200UTC 28.2N 154.8E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 011200UTC 29.2N 152.2E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 021200UTC 29.3N 149.7E 220NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =

[HURAKAN]

Large eye:

[senorpepr]

No significant changes with the 21Z JMA forecast, other than forward motion direction.

ZCZC 245
WTPQ20 RJTD 302100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0709 FITOW (0709)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 302100UTC 26.5N 155.6E FAIR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 312100UTC 28.4N 152.0E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 011800UTC 29.0N 150.9E 150NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 021800UTC 28.9N 148.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =
NNNN


I still wouldn't want to be Japan with the latest model guidance.

[Chacor]

997
WTPQ20 RJTD 310000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0709 FITOW (0709)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 310000UTC 26.5N 155.1E FAIR
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 010000UTC 28.0N 151.2E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 020000UTC 28.4N 149.6E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 030000UTC 28.4N 147.5E 220NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

[windstorm99]

Close up view of FITOW with track overlaid...

[HURAKAN]

looks interesting:

[Chacor]

No change, still 65 kt 970 mbar.

[Coredesat]

Not looking healthy.



This probably isn't a typhoon anymore based on its appearance.

[HURAKAN]

Everything seemed to be going to well for Fitow but it's falling apart.

[Chacor]

Still T4.5 from RJTD at 12Z.