CPAC: Invest 92C

[HURAKAN]

Pretty far to the north.

.25kts-NAmb-290N-1760W

[HURAKAN]

1000 AM HST WED AUG 29 2007

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

A nearly stationary upper level low centered about 1050 miles west northwest of Kauai continues to trigger isolated thunderstorms northeast of Midway atoll. Tropical cyclone development in this area during the next 48 hours is unlikely.

A weak, nearly stationary surface trough 1100 miles southeast of Hilo continues to produce isolated thunderstorms. Tropical cyclone development is not expected in this area during the next 48 hours.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Friday morning.

[CrazyC83]

Too far north to develop in the CPac.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

based on that visible it appears to be a tropical storm of around 35-40 knots. But its to far north anyways.

[bob rulz]

Too far north to develop in the CPac.

Stranger things have happened.

[PhillyWX]

Too far north to develop in the CPac.

Stranger things have happened.

Yes they have.



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unnamed_Hurricane_(1975)

http://ams.allenpress.com/archive/1520- ... -4-475.pdf (go to page 484)

[Derek Ortt]

no, its not too far north

[RL3AO]

If I only had visible satellite as a tool, I would call that Tropical Storm Kika. But the last QS shows that it isn't a closed circulation.

[CrazyC83]

It usually takes an El Nino for a storm to develop in the CPac above 20°N.

[PhillyWX]

It usually takes an El Nino for a storm to develop in the CPac above 20°N.

1975's Hurricane formed during a raging Nina I believe.

Dot was a hurricane in the North Central Pac (1970) and that was a Nina.

Wene formed during a weak nina in 2000.

The Central Pac storms in tropical latitudes form more frequently during NINO events from the mid latitude storms, albeit rare, form in different conditions.

[Coredesat]

ULL to the SW now appears to be shearing it apart.

[HURAKAN]

1000 PM HST WED AUG 29 2007

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

An upper level low centered about 1130 miles west northwest of Lihue, Kauai continues to produce disorganized scattered thunderstorms north and northeast of Midway atoll. No significant development is expected in this area as it drifts slowly west northwest toward the date line tonight and Friday.

A weak, nearly stationary surface trough located about 1135 miles east southeast of Hilo, Hawaii continues to produce disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. No significant development is expected in this area during the next couple of days.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Friday evening.

[Chacor]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST THU AUG 30 2007

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK...NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE
TROUGH LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII HAVE
DECREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVERNIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
LOCATED NEAR MIDWAY ATOLL ARE MOVING WEST ACROSS THE DATE LINE INTO
THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC OCEAN. THEREFORE...TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING

[Coredesat]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1016 HPA AT 32N 174E WNW 15 KT.



If you look closely you can see ex-92C to the ENE of Fitow, as a small faint swirl with convection to the S of the center.