Invest 94L,Near Windwards-Discussions

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[CrazyC83]

Looks like the center is around 10°N/49°W?

[O Town]

Looks like the center is around 10°N/49°W?

Underneath that new blow up of convection more along 11 than 10. That is where the LOW is located anyways, not really a center yet.

[Derek Ortt]

there is nothing at the surface, not even a significant wind shift based upon both the morning and afternoon QS

The Dvorak estimates are not meaningful since there is nothing at the surface to classify

[skysummit]

Just for the heck of it...another model plot:

[hurricanetrack]

You guys still losing sleep over 94L? Sorry to hear that. Hopefully NHC will call it at the 10:30 TWO.

[cycloneye]

Steve Lyons confirms what Derek said about nothing at the surface,all is aloft.

[skysummit]

You guys still losing sleep over 94L? Sorry to hear that. Hopefully NHC will call it at the 10:30 TWO.

Losing sleep? What time do you go to bed?

[hurricanetrack]

Ha! Sometimes 2:30 am waiting for this stuff. It's awesome though- if tropical cyclones were easy to forecast, it would not be as "fun".

Please don't take "fun" out of context. We all know what I mean.

[vacanechaser]

You guys still losing sleep over 94L? Sorry to hear that. Hopefully NHC will call it at the 10:30 TWO.

Losing sleep? What time do you go to bed?

he never sleeps!!!!!!!!!!






Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurrricane Intercept Research Team

[hurricanetrack]

I have been known to nap during the day though to make up for the lost sleep at night. My wife and 5,000 kids love when I do that.

:-0)

[vacanechaser]

690
ABNT20 KNHC 300223
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT WED AUG 29 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE
CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AROUND 15 MPH.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTEND SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
EAST AND NORTHEAST OF A NON-TROPICAL LOW CENTERED ABOUT 330 MILES
EAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE
MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
ON THURSDAY...IF NECESSARY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD
OR SOUTHEASTWARD.

CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING
TROPICAL WAVE ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT BEFORE IT MOVES OVER
MAINLAND MEXICO IN A DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH/RHOME

[hurricanetrack]

Well, it ain't dead yet. Looking at the floater, it is clear to me that some convection is firing near some center of circulation. Again, you gotta really speed up the animation to see the low clouds turning under all that mess, but there it is - on life support for a little while longer anyway.

Anyone know where the fat lady is? Perhaps she did not get this gig....

[vacanechaser]

Anyone know where the fat lady is? Perhaps she did not get this gig....

she is on discovery health right now.. lol..

well, we will see what happens... does look like it is trying to come back a bit..



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[skysummit]

I hear ya Mark...you are Mark, correct? LOL Remember me? I went visit you at Lowe's in New Orleans. I was there with Zack.

[wzrgirl1]

well get some sleep folks this thing is going to be around awhile and we will have many more nights to discuss it i am afraid

[hurricanetrack]

Yo skysummit, I do remember you. I really appreciated you and Zack coming by. That was an amazing tour and it's funny, seems like so long ago. And yet Katrina also seems like it was so long ago now. Wow.

Anyhow, 94L is hanging tough. I thought the models were going to be right once again and knock this thing off- which they still might do. But for now, it is not quite DOA. Let's see this time tomorrow night what it looks like.

[Sanibel]

There's definitely a circulation there. I would expect it to continue spinning and form further west. Should start blooming convection as the SST's force it.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I don't see anything intill its into the caribbean. For one there is shear and two the air is dry. So maybe in 2-3 days this could have a chance, intill then not much of a chance.

[brunota2003]

Haha, I saw Mark back in early June in Morehead City...and to think I'm a senior in school this year...O.o Where did the time go? Seems like just yesterday I was sliding down the ice covered stairs to the trailer in Virginia or Mark handed the key for the Isuzu Rodeo over to my parents...lmao! The Isuzu tried to roll down the hill until Mark jumped in and slammed on the brake...I remember how painstaking it was to clean all that glass and sand out of it and the smell. I remember talking to the Channel 12 News guy in the Parking Lot of Lowe's, he had no clue who I was, so I asked why he was there and he explained everything. I then introduced myself. The look on his face was priceless when he realized it...xD I offered to help carry his equipment, as he had a lot...but I guess he didnt trust me with it, as he said no... Then again, it was the companies equipment and not his personal stuff, so I do not blame him.

As for 94L, it looks ok. I highly doubt we will see any development from it though, but I will not completely turn my back to it.