Invest 96L,North Atlantic-Discussions

[cycloneye]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

The invests keep popping,but no meat so far.Lets see what happens with this 96L one east of the Carolinas.

[HURAKAN]

I think the NHC may want to redirect the RECON today.

[Thunder44]

QS pass just in shows a broad but closed LLC. One wind barb of up to 30kts just east of the center:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas19.png

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 301248
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1248 UTC THU AUG 30 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962007) 20070830 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070830 1200 070831 0000 070831 1200 070901 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 35.7N 70.4W 36.7N 70.9W 37.8N 71.3W 38.5N 70.8W
BAMD 35.7N 70.4W 36.8N 70.6W 38.4N 70.0W 40.5N 67.8W
BAMM 35.7N 70.4W 36.7N 70.9W 38.0N 70.8W 39.5N 69.4W
LBAR 35.7N 70.4W 36.4N 70.2W 37.8N 69.3W 39.9N 67.5W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 45KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070901 1200 070902 1200 070903 1200 070904 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 38.8N 69.0W 36.6N 64.1W 33.7N 61.8W 33.4N 60.9W
BAMD 43.2N 63.5W 48.6N 53.5W 53.2N 42.2W 58.1N 27.8W
BAMM 40.9N 65.8W 42.9N 56.3W 43.7N 48.3W 45.5N 39.4W
LBAR 42.9N 64.2W 50.2N 49.9W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 53KTS 55KTS 51KTS 42KTS
DSHP 53KTS 55KTS 51KTS 42KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 35.7N LONCUR = 70.4W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 0KT
LATM12 = 35.3N LONM12 = 70.0W DIRM12 = 321DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 34.9N LONM24 = 69.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[flwxwatcher]

Looks like whatever becomes of 96L will be moving NE the next few days

[Chacor]

Possibility of Fujiwhara interaction with 95L?

[DanKellFla]

This morning GFDL and the HWRF have it developing a little and heading east to bother the fish. The GFDL hints that it might get named.

[storms in NC]

I seen it this morning and it looks like it will not bother any one but the fish. But looks better than 95l does. but if 95l could get down a little more you would see it build up fast.

[Tropics Guy]

96L looking good on the visible shot, think this will be the invest to make it to TD status first.

TG

[windstorm99]

Nothing but a problem for the fish.

[boca]

whenever you get systems that form off North Carolina their ususally NE accellerators. I would bet this will only affect the fish.

[cycloneye]

You can go and vote in poll in Talking Tropics forum about which invest will be a TD first.

[HouTXmetro]

Since the Highs have been so dominant, anyone think this can get pushed back South later in the forecast?

[storms in NC]

Since the Highs have been so dominant, anyone think this can get pushed back South later in the forecast?

I was thinking the same thing here. With the front coming down could it pull it close to the coast of NC?

Sure would be nice for some rain. TD or TS would be just fine for me.

[storms in NC]

I guess we will just see how weak it really is

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
940 AM EDT THU AUG 30 2007




LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW AMPLE MOISTURE LINGERING AND SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS MAY NEED TO BE CARRIED INTO SUNDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
REGARDING CLOUD COVER AND THE RESULTING AFFECTS ON TEMPERATURES.
ONLY MODEST CAA BEHIND THE FRONT SO BREAKS OF SUN WOULD ONLY LEAD
TO HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE OF MIDWEEK. NERLY FLOW
STRATUS HOWEVER COULD REALLY KEEP TEMPS DOWN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC/GFS GUIDANCE WHICH SHOW
TEMPS PRETTY CLOSE TO CLIMO. ANOTHER WILDCARD IS THE
STRENGTH/POSITION OF LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST AND ITS
POSSIBLE INFLUENCE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR/DRY AIR
ADVECTION. MON-WED LOOK DRY WITH A POORLY DEFINED HIGH STILL TO
THE NORTH AND VERY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW.

[CrazyC83]

Recon is being redirected from 95L to 96L? Looks like we very well may have TD6 here...

[HURAKAN]

Shows winds up to 50 knts.

[Epsilon_Fan]

It has good convection and outflow to the southern side. I'd say this was on its way to a TD if it isn't already

[cycloneye]

No tasking for 96L in the todays plan of the day.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?

[AnnularCane]

Wow, where did this one come from? I didn't even know there was anything there.