Yes or No: Is SFL in danger

[Evil Jeremy]

Some people here on various topics have been saying that Florida might get a direct hit and where it could be, but I want to know if SEFL, like the Palm Bach, Broward, and Miami Dade counties might be threatened later on this season.

[storms in NC]

Dr Gray said that the East coast was going to have a higher than average hits this year. But till the Ridge brakes down I wouldn't look for any thing on the whole east coast. The Caribbean and the gulf will I think so.

[JonathanBelles]

I cant say much for the rest of the season, but for the next week or two, there is no imminent danger.

[Brent]

Most of South FL's hits come from Wilma-like systems, so it cannot be ruled out again, but for right now, there is no danger.

[flwxwatcher]

Its only August 30th , Way to early to let the guard down. The African Wave train is cranking and we are getting into September when things can get cranking in a hurry.

[gtalum]

Its only August 30th , Way to early to let the guard down. The African Wave train is cranking and we are getting into September when things can get cranking in a hurry.

Sure, but people said the same thing about August.

[Ed Mahmoud]

SFL is South Florida.

I saw that an thought "spherically focused log". That is the Schlumberger name for the short radius of investigation resistivity log they run, usually paired with a deep and medium induction log, plus whatever porsoity tools one wants to run on the Platform Express platform.

Halliburton calls it the "DFL".

[storms in NC]

Its only August 30th , Way to early to let the guard down. The African Wave train is cranking and we are getting into September when things can get cranking in a hurry.

Anything coming off the coast right now would go just like Dean. Stright across. JMO

[Ed Mahmoud]

When did Hurricane Kate hit in 1985? Late, wasn't it? Wilma and Mitch (Mitch was only a TS at the time) are also late season storms that have hit Florida.

Unlike Texas, which is about 4 weeks away (Barely Cat 1 Jerry only October hurricane to hit Texas in almost 60 years) from being all clear, Florida's season really does stretch June to November,

[Ed Mahmoud]

November 22nd was when Kate hit Florida as a Cat 2.


Florida's season goes right to the end.

[flwxwatcher]

Its only August 30th , Way to early to let the guard down. The African Wave train is cranking and we are getting into September when things can get cranking in a hurry.

Sure, but people said the same thing about August.

September is the most active month for Hurricanes and as the chart at this link shows,( second table on the page) from 1900 -1996 Florida has been hit by more Major Hurricane in September then any other Month.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/paststate.html

[fci]

First off, Jeremy is referring to Southeast Florida so I limit my discussion to Southeast Florida. (which takes Charley out of the discussion)

Can a storm still hit Southeast Florida? Yes.
Do I expect it? No
Why? Because this has been a rather inoccuous season and I just don't see it ramping up.

Look, let's face it. For Southeast Florida (the subject of the thread) just how many Hurricanes have hit over the past 40 years?
I don't have the list but I can say that in the past 10 years we have had about 4 hits (could be 1 or 2 short) With all 4 of them in the past 3 years.
Going back, limiting discussion to SOUTHEAST FLORIDA off the top of my head I can remember Betsy, Cleo, David, Andrew, Frances, Jeanne, Katrina and Wilma. Not counting storms like Mitch and other Tropical Storms; just limiting to Hurricanes.
I may have missed one or two (which I suspect others will remind me of- I did move away from 1986-2003 but still followed from afar)
So I count 8 in 40+ years
So, hits to Southeast Florida are NOT COMMONPLACE.
Near misses are a lot more commonplace

So, my expectation annually is that a Hurricane WILL NOT hit Southeast Florida.
I guess we are generally lucky...

Not that the luck will always continue and I am in no way minimizing the need to be ready; but I do not expect it, never do and rarely get surprised.

Just my unscientific, purely from personal experience; opinion.

[Sanibel]

South Florida is always in danger. I suspect slightly more so this year because the CV track will eventually pull north.

[cpdaman]

action ramping up later in the season due to la nina definitely spells danger for florida and the carolina's. potential danger, not imminent. florida is always dangerous in september and october september from the east and south east mostly, and october from the south west generally w/ excpetions

[robbielyn]

ok but what about that stubborn ridge keeping everything to our south and west so far? and all those ull's of se coast line that interfere with development? I think if fl has a chance of getting hit this year it will be formed from the carribean or gulf.

[Blown Away]

If 98L develops, I think this might be a close call for SFL and/or for the SE. Regardless of what the models say I just can't buy 3 low rider storms through the Caribbean. If 98L/Gabby comes through near PR as Jeff Masters hinted, that's the Hebert Box area and that makes the SFL storm odds go up. 98L's current position,the early September timing, and a general W track towards the Hebert Box = Close attention for SFL residents.

[gatorcane]

First off, Jeremy is referring to Southeast Florida so I limit my discussion to Southeast Florida. (which takes Charley out of the discussion)

Can a storm still hit Southeast Florida? Yes.
Do I expect it? No
Why? Because this has been a rather inoccuous season and I just don't see it ramping up.

Look, let's face it. For Southeast Florida (the subject of the thread) just how many Hurricanes have hit over the past 40 years?
I don't have the list but I can say that in the past 10 years we have had about 4 hits (could be 1 or 2 short) With all 4 of them in the past 3 years.
Going back, limiting discussion to SOUTHEAST FLORIDA off the top of my head I can remember Betsy, Cleo, David, Andrew, Frances, Jeanne, Katrina and Wilma. Not counting storms like Mitch and other Tropical Storms; just limiting to Hurricanes.
I may have missed one or two (which I suspect others will remind me of- I did move away from 1986-2003 but still followed from afar)
So I count 8 in 40+ years
So, hits to Southeast Florida are NOT COMMONPLACE.
Near misses are a lot more commonplace

So, my expectation annually is that a Hurricane WILL NOT hit Southeast Florida.
I guess we are generally lucky...

Not that the luck will always continue and I am in no way minimizing the need to be ready; but I do not expect it, never do and rarely get surprised.

Just my unscientific, purely from personal experience; opinion.

FCI put the 1920s-1940s in your statistics and things change. South Florida got hit *alot* back then...and there is no reason we won't go back into that pattern again....

South Florida is very vulnerable.

[fci]

All of the coast line is vulnerable.
No arguement there.

About 8 storms in 40 years.
That is what is most relevant to me.

What indications do you have that we will return to the activity of the 20's-40's?
Ragtime music, the Great Depression or the opening of Gone with the Wind?

I think a sample run of the past 40 years is pretty good and based on that while there is of course vulnerability; the expectation HAS to be that Southeast Florida will generally miss being struck by a Hurricane.

Could this be the year?- Of course. (Your favorite emoticon)
Is that the REASONABLE expectation?- No.
I going with the law of averages here. 4 storms in the past 3 years tell me that we are NOT overdue. In fact, we are due for a break to keep the average in line!!!! (MY favorite emoticon!)

[jimvb]

The latest GFS runs, especially 2007 Sep 2 00Z, shows a hurricane approaching the Carolina coast. It also shows a string of storms following it. The 06Z run shows it going out to sea instead, but at this range, there can be huge errors in the GFS. The storm could go to SFL instead, or to GOM or Central America. In any case, I would not say anywhere on the East or Gulf coasts is out of danger yet. The Marine Summer Solstice has yet to come - September 10, the peak of the hurricane season. More than half remains.