Invest 94L,Near Windwards-Discussions

[jaxfladude]

Bless This Ridge
(As Long As It Keeps The TD/TS/'Canes Away From The USA)
Bless Those Who Do Get Affected

[HURAKAN]

Looking much better tonight!!! DMAX, where are you!!!

[x-y-no]

Not necessarily but what I don't want is another Dean-like track. If all the long-trackers go straight west that's BORING. I want something different.

To each his own, I guess ... I found Dean an interesting and impressive storm to track.

[Cyclone1]

[img][/img]

Looking much better tonight!!! DMAX, where are you!!!

DMax is about 3-4 hours away. it's 8:25ish right now... hmm plus 3... carry the two... I'd say the earliest this will be upgraded is 5am. But hey, maybe we'll get a surprise upgrade at 11. However, they are likely to wait for recon unless they see some super special awesome chocolatey fudge coated organization before then. Honestly, at this point, that doesn't seem too far out of the question.

Storm2k members: "Chocolatey fudge coated organization? That makes no sense, idiot!"

[RL3AO]

Don't count on a 5am upgrade. NHC will want visibles.

[CrazyC83]

Last QuikSCAT pass completely missed the system.

[gilbert88]

If this thing will head toward Yucatan, I really hope it doesn't develop.

[HURAKAN]

Felix before September looks plausible.

[Derek Ortt]

better to head toward the Yucatan, even though they were just hit very hard, than a strike on Honduras

Hits on Honduras have traditionally been even worse than strikes on Haiti. The flooding problem is far worse now since Mitch accelerated the deforestation, which makes the region far more vulnerable

[CrazyC83]

Felix before September looks plausible.

Or Gabrielle? 96L has a closed circulation according to QuikSCAT, while this has no data...

[RL3AO]

At the pace invests are popping up, we could have another 94L before this one becomes a TD.

On a serious note, it is looking really good...especially for a system that has been called dead so many times.

[Ed Mahmoud]

New GFDL- even further South than Dean...


A little premature, but so far its looks good for the Western Gulf this season, and as much rain as we've had, that is a good thing.

[Blown Away]

So everybody pretty confident about 94L moving mostly due west for >2000 miles in Honduras in about 5+ days? The low riders must be easier to predict if there is that much confidence.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looks like some convection is firing up near what looks like the center, although the big colorful blob is still East of where the center looks to be (to me).

I see 11.5ºN and 54ºW based on the floater, last image 0015Z

I have no training, mind you.

[windstorm99]

GFDL Track...

[Ptarmigan]

Looks like Central America has to keep an eye on this one. Anything can happen though.

[hurricanetrack]

Note though that the speed at this point is around 8-9 knots. It slows down as it approaches Honduras. There is a nice trough seen in the 500mb animation on the latest GFS in the mid-section of the USA at 168 hours.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_168m.gif

People along the Gulf Coast had better hope that trough doesn't make it time to erode or shove the ridge around- allowing this to slow and then turn through the Yucatan Channel. It will be September when this is in play- that is somewhat a different overall pattern than mid-August was.

These are just my obs and opinions. I think we are intelligent enough to keep a close eye on it and realize that 126 hours from now, things could be a lot different.

94L does look very good tonight- compared to other nights. Looks like my global models have let me down!

[Brent]

I think it's looking the best it ever has. I'm hoping we can get another storm in August so all we need is a TD tomorrow!

I also have to think that a straight west track in September is highly unlikely, but I also didn't think Dean would do it. It's later in the season now though.

[cycloneye]

30/2345 UTC 11.9N 53.2W T1.5/1.5 94L -- Atlantic Ocean


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

One step closer to TD status.

[wxman57]

Well, I'm still not impressed. There is no "center", just a very large and broad area of low pressure. And I think that the "center" is now passing 55W out ahead of the convection. All the convection is firing on the eastern side of this broad area of low pressure because an upper trof is digging southwestward over 94L producing westerly wind shear (look at the WV loops). And the air in front of it for the next few days is still quite dry. I don't think it will develop over the next 2-3 days. May have a fair shot in 4-5 days when it approaches Nicaragua/Honduras. ECMWF still forecasts a very strong ridge building over the Bahamas this weekend then extending west across the Gulf next Mon/Tue. That should keep this system on a track very similar to Dean's, but possibly a bit farther to the south.