Invest 94L,Near Windwards-Discussions

[Brent]

In the last few hours, convection is firing west between 55W-57W, on the western side of the broad center. This could be a sign that shear is letting up a bit. Let's hope it decreases overnight. Don't need another storm in the Caribbean.

Yes, lets hope for the shear to decrease. But if you don't want another storm in the Caribbean, decreasing shear won't help that thought.

[wxman57]

In the last few hours, convection is firing west between 55W-57W, on the western side of the broad center. This could be a sign that shear is letting up a bit. Let's hope it decreases overnight. Don't need another storm in the Caribbean.

Yes, lets hope for the shear to decrease. But if you don't want another storm in the Caribbean, decreasing shear won't help that thought.

I meant let's hope that the convection will decrease tonight, not the shear.

[HURAKAN]

[Weatherfreak14]

Lookin pretty good right now by that shot.

[GeneratorPower]

Please do not remove large sections of the document you are quoting without using an ellipsis (...) or making a note that it is only a partial quote. This is very confusing, as it looks like you've posted the entire TWO. It has many more parts that were not quoted, however. Thanks -GP

ABNT20 KNHC 310227
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT
480 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM FROM THIS SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM ON FRIDAY...IF NECESSARY.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN



10:30 PM TWO.

[RL3AO]

Please do not remove large sections of the document you are quoting without using an ellipsis (...) or making a note that it is only a partial quote. This is very confusing, as it looks like you've posted the entire TWO. It has many more parts that were not quoted, however. Thanks -GP

This thread is for 94L. There is no need to post the entire TWO, just the part that mentions 94L.

[GeneratorPower]

Please do not remove large sections of the document you are quoting without using an ellipsis (...) or making a note that it is only a partial quote. This is very confusing, as it looks like you've posted the entire TWO. It has many more parts that were not quoted, however. Thanks -GP

This thread is for 94L. There is no need to post the entire TWO, just the part that mentions 94L.

Agreed. But let's make a note of that fact in the post. That's why I suggested the ellipsis. Snip away, just let us know so we don't think it's the whole document.

[HURAKAN]

Looking good!!! Can't wait for DMAX!!!

[Sanibel]

The smaller convection circle on the left is covering the center. It should grow tonight while the bigger one diminishes. Then the whole storm should grow (probably slowly).

[Vortex]

94L is becoming better organized by the hour...

In fact, I expect an upgrade to TD with the first visibles and possible TS upon RECON reaching storm..

Late Friday night/Saturday morning I expect "Felix" to pass near barbados with 45-55 mph...

I do not think the forecast direction is set in stone..In fact "Felix" may enter the Eastern Carribean further S then Dean. However, after analyzing the synoptic data this evening and forecasted thru +72 there may be more of a weakness in play across the western atlantic and "Felix" MAY come very near western Haiti/Eastern Cuba on Monday night/Tuesday...

[miamicanes177]

Well, I'm still not impressed. There is no "center", just a very large and broad area of low pressure. And I think that the "center" is now passing 55W out ahead of the convection. All the convection is firing on the eastern side of this broad area of low pressure because an upper trof is digging southwestward over 94L producing westerly wind shear (look at the WV loops). And the air in front of it for the next few days is still quite dry. I don't think it will develop over the next 2-3 days. May have a fair shot in 4-5 days when it approaches Nicaragua/Honduras.

I strongly disagree with this post, but agree with the NHC and believe a tropical depression could form friday. 94L needs to be watched very closely as it could eventually become a serious hurricane. I fully expect development over the next 2-3 days and beyond until it eventually makes landfall.

[pojo]

we are here to investigate IF CARCAH deems necessary.

[cycloneye]

we are here to investigate IF CARCAH deems necessary.

There was a question back from bvigal about from where the mission would depart.ST Croix is from where the mission if it goes will depart right?

[Ed Mahmoud]

The GFS doesn't show a surface feature at hour 0, but does have a closed 576 dm height contour, so it knows it is there.

[pojo]

we are here to investigate IF CARCAH deems necessary.

There was a question back from bvigal about from where the mission would depart.ST Croix is from where the mission if it goes will depart right?

correct.

[Ed Mahmoud]

OK, this isn't the model thread, but at 12 hours, closed 1012 mb isobar.

Now that GFS sees it, it';; be interesting to see how it tracks it.

[Ed Mahmoud]

we are here to investigate IF CARCAH deems necessary.

There was a question back from bvigal about from where the mission would depart.ST Croix is from where the mission if it goes will depart right?

correct.

Where those URNT10 messages this afternoon a St. Croix aircraft checking the systems?

[Vortex]

GFS at H+18

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_018l.gif

[Vortex]

GFS at H+24

E/Ene of barbados moving wnw..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_024l.gif

[pojo]

How soon *if at all* will RECON and the NOAA Gulfstream IV fight crews can do their thing

RECON (USAFR) flight on Friday.... IF CARCAH deems necessary.