Invest 94L,Near Windwards-Discussions

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Re: Invest 94L,East of Windwards-Discussions-Analysis & Imagery

#661 Postby RL3AO » Fri Aug 31, 2007 12:02 am

bvigal wrote:Agencies of the government of the United States of America, such as NWS/NHC can't issue watches or warnings for "the islands", most of which are sovereign nations,



Correct. From TD Eleven-E.

AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF
ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACHACA TO TECPAN DE GALEANA. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
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Re: Invest 94L,East of Windwards-Discussions-Analysis & Imagery

#662 Postby hial2 » Fri Aug 31, 2007 12:03 am

Derek Ortt wrote:Cuba tends to be more friendly to NOAA flights. NOAA was flying the P3 over Cuba during Michelle


(Holding back my natural bias)

Probably because Michelle was the strongest hurricane to affect Cuba since Fox in 1952..
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#663 Postby RL3AO » Fri Aug 31, 2007 12:27 am

TCFA issued.
Last edited by RL3AO on Fri Aug 31, 2007 12:30 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#664 Postby Chacor » Fri Aug 31, 2007 12:28 am

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 310530Z AUG 07//
WTNT02 KNGU 310600Z
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.5N 55.0W TO 13.0N 63.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
2. AT 31/0000Z AUG 07, A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
11.9N 53.2W WITH AN ESTIMATED SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1011.0 MB.
THIS SYSTEM IS TRACKING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS. CURRENT SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, ANTI-CYCLONIC
FLOW LOCATED OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA AND WEAK WIND SHEAR
ARE ALL FACTORS HELPING TO ENHANCE THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 010600Z.//
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#665 Postby bvigal » Fri Aug 31, 2007 12:35 am

Been running the floater loop while trying to catch up on all this reading! That nice round 'blob' under the center of circulation is gone, convection broken up and spread over a much larger area. More organizing?

from 2am TWD:
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W/54W S OF 16W MOVING W 15 KT WITH A 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N. BROAD BUT LOW AMPLITUDE LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION COVERS THE AREA FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 51W-58W. THIS WAVE/LOW HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM 10N51W TO 13N57W.
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#666 Postby RL3AO » Fri Aug 31, 2007 12:37 am

This is just making that recon flight tomorrow that much more interesting.
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#667 Postby bvigal » Fri Aug 31, 2007 12:58 am

Interesting the TCFA, issued at 0530z places center at 00z at 11.9N 53.2W, while TWD at 0600z "BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC" places center "near" 11N
GFDL @ 0z 11.2N 54.0W

Just a comment, Grenada is at 12.1N
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Re: Invest 94L,East of Windwards-Discussions-Analysis & Imagery

#668 Postby AJC3 » Fri Aug 31, 2007 1:03 am

hial2 wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:Cuba tends to be more friendly to NOAA flights. NOAA was flying the P3 over Cuba during Michelle


(Holding back my natural bias)

Probably because Michelle was the strongest hurricane to affect Cuba since Fox in 1952..


It's not just that. See.... http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/20sep00recon.html

Image

Western Cuba from ~1000 feet...

Image
Last edited by AJC3 on Fri Aug 31, 2007 1:06 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re:

#669 Postby Chacor » Fri Aug 31, 2007 1:03 am

bvigal wrote:Interesting the TCFA, issued at 0530z places center at 00z at 11.9N 53.2W, while TWD at 0600z "BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC" places center "near" 11N
GFDL @ 0z 11.2N 54.0W

Just a comment, Grenada is at 12.1N


And TPC/NCEP ATCF says...
AL, 94, 2007083100, , BEST, 0, 114N, 539W, 25, 1010, WV, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 120, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

Just to spice things up. :lol:
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Re: Invest 94L,East of Windwards-Discussions-Analysis & Imagery

#670 Postby TheEuropean » Fri Aug 31, 2007 1:45 am

Now NRL says

94LINVEST.35kts-NAmb-119N-532W
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Re: Invest 94L,East of Windwards-Discussions-Analysis & Imagery

#671 Postby TheEuropean » Fri Aug 31, 2007 2:19 am

Now again NRL with

94LINVEST.25kts-1010mb-114N-539W

What's going on?
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Re: Invest 94L,East of Windwards-Discussions-Analysis & Imagery

#672 Postby Zardoz » Fri Aug 31, 2007 2:24 am

94L is ready to rumble:

Image

AccuWeather

The system we are most concerned with is the tropical wave now along 53 west about 500 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. This system has become better organized and clouds are starting to wrap around the surface low in an organized manner near 11 north. Satellite images show some thunderstorms forming on the south and east side of the developing circulation. Drier air continues to cause thunderstorm decay over the northwest and west side of the circulation. If this system continues to evolve and if thunderstorms can start to wrap around the low-level circulation, it could become a depression as early as Friday. Computer model output takes this system westward into the Lesser Antilles Friday night and Saturday, then into the eastern Caribbean Sunday and near or just south of Jamaica Sunday night and Monday. Some of that model output suggests this will become a tropical storm as it moves through the Lesser Antilles Saturday and could strengthen further into a hurricane over the weekend.
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Re: Invest 94L,East of Windwards-Discussions-Analysis & Imagery

#673 Postby Thunder44 » Fri Aug 31, 2007 2:43 am

048
WHXX01 KWBC 310718
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0718 UTC FRI AUG 31 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942007) 20070831 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070831 0600 070831 1800 070901 0600 070901 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.4N 55.2W 12.5N 58.3W 13.4N 61.4W 14.4N 64.1W
BAMD 11.4N 55.2W 11.8N 58.7W 12.4N 62.0W 13.1N 65.3W
BAMM 11.4N 55.2W 12.0N 58.8W 12.6N 62.1W 13.5N 65.4W
LBAR 11.4N 55.2W 11.6N 58.1W 12.2N 61.5W 12.9N 65.2W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 47KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070902 0600 070903 0600 070904 0600 070905 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.0N 67.1W 16.4N 74.1W 17.2N 80.2W 18.2N 85.2W
BAMD 13.9N 68.7W 15.0N 75.6W 15.3N 81.3W 15.4N 85.0W
BAMM 14.3N 68.8W 15.5N 75.9W 16.2N 82.2W 17.0N 86.7W
LBAR 13.6N 68.8W 15.0N 75.6W 16.1N 79.8W .0N .0W
SHIP 57KTS 74KTS 83KTS 87KTS
DSHP 57KTS 74KTS 83KTS 87KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.4N LONCUR = 55.2W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 11.4N LONM12 = 52.7W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 11.1N LONM24 = 49.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 140NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN


6z Models still a 25kt disturbance.
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#674 Postby RL3AO » Fri Aug 31, 2007 2:49 am

The odds that recon will find a depression (or storm) is growing by the hour.
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Re: Invest 94L,East of Windwards-Discussions-Analysis & Imagery

#675 Postby Brent » Fri Aug 31, 2007 2:59 am

I don't expect an upgrade til visibles come in... so 11am probably like with Dean(or they could wait til the plane gets there and it be 5). They don't usually initiate advisories at 5am.

I do fully expect at least TD 6 today though at some point.
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Re: Invest 94L,East of Windwards-Discussions-Analysis & Imagery

#676 Postby Coredesat » Fri Aug 31, 2007 3:44 am

TheEuropean wrote:Now again NRL with

94LINVEST.25kts-1010mb-114N-539W

What's going on?


It was an error. The ATCF file has always said 25 kt.
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Re: Invest 94L,East of Windwards-Discussions-Analysis & Imagery

#677 Postby Sanibel » Fri Aug 31, 2007 4:18 am

Boom over the center. Just in time for Caribbean. Back to bed.
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#678 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Aug 31, 2007 4:29 am

Image
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#679 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Aug 31, 2007 4:31 am

Image

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 310530Z AUG 07//
WTNT02 KNGU 310600Z
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.5N 55.0W TO 13.0N 63.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
2. AT 31/0000Z AUG 07, A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
11.9N 53.2W WITH AN ESTIMATED SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1011.0 MB.
THIS SYSTEM IS TRACKING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS. CURRENT SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, ANTI-CYCLONIC
FLOW LOCATED OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA AND WEAK WIND SHEAR
ARE ALL FACTORS HELPING TO ENHANCE THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 010600Z.//
Last edited by HURAKAN on Fri Aug 31, 2007 4:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Invest 94L,East of Windwards-Discussions-Analysis & Imagery

#680 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 31, 2007 4:32 am

ABNT20 KNHC 310930
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT FRI AUG 31 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WELL-ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE...IS CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS AND IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER THIS MORNING. REGARDLESS...
AS THE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND
WINDS WITH GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE. INTERESTS IN THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...AND IS
EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT. ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT THIS
MORNING...AND THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT REACHES COOLER WATERS.
REGARDLESS...IT COULD STRENGTHEN AS A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS MOSTLY DIMINISHED AND
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER KNABB


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