Invest 94L,Near Windwards-Discussions

[Lowpressure]

I also see no turn even to the WNW until the system clears Aruba

Not good news at all as TCs ar typically very deadly in SA and Nicaragua and Honduras

And usually pretty strong storms too.

[gatorcane]

global models continue to breakdown the ridge over the CONUS at 144 hours. A westward track like Dean may not happen and in fact if unlikely in my opinion. Take a look at what the global models are showing. A westward track to about Jamaica is likely and then after that it may want to turn towards the NW or N.

GFS:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=144hr

MM5FSU45b:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsu45 ... hour=120hr

CMC:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=144hr

[boca]

I'm afraid this one is going to develop today. There's a ship south of 94L reporting SW winds at 20 kts now. I'm already working up a track taking it into Nicaragua on Tuesday. ECMWF did excellently with Dean, and I think it has the best handle on the building ridge north of 94L. Take a look at the ECMWF surface and 500mb pattern for next Tuesday evening as 94L reaches the western Caribbean. Don't look for any turn like Ivan or Charley. More likely a track south of Dean's. Even Aruba might get a piece of this one.

What about the accuracy of the ECMWF that wxman 57 pointed out? Its just a crab shoot.

[gatorcane]

How about the NOGAPS? Weakens the ridge even more:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... hour=144hr

[MWatkins]

There's your reasoning as to why the BAMS is further north than the other models.

The surface ridge is going to open up...but all of the models...all of them...have a huge 588DM mid-level high sitting over the GOM. This ridge should protect the US and keep this thing down in the Caribbean.

The western extent of the ridge is what is going to drive that EPAC system into the Baja perhaps.

Models have been trending south as well with the track..

At the end of hte 5 day period things could change...but right now this is a pretty staightforward track.

MW

[gatorcane]

You can see a break in the ridge over the SE CONUS here. We had better hope it fills in with that High out in the central US...

[skysummit]

Wxman57....seeing that the other globals are all weakening the ridge, are you saying you're basing your forecast track solely off the Euro? What about Derek? Euro too?

[boca]

That steering current I posted before is for today not next Tuesday.The Euro is the only model showing a building ridge sitting over the Gulf of Mexico. Things can change in five days.

[HURAKAN]

No change:
31/1145 UTC 11.3N 56.6W T1.5/1.5 94L -- Atlantic Ocean

[miamicanes177]

That steering current I posted before is for today not next Tuesday.The Euro is the only model showing a building ridge sitting over the Gulf of Mexico. Things can change in five days.

We'll have to wait see. As was evidenced by Dean, when the models lock in on a track they tend to cement that track into place and are correct almost always. They are pretty close to cementing a straight west track here. We'll need a few more runs to confirm it however. It was amazing to watch their accuracy on Dean, and so far 94L is trending the same way.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:




See you later. I have class at 10 AM.

[boca]

How strong can 94L actually get on its track half of its circulation will be over SA.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[hurricanetrack]

Hey, where is that trough that was so prevalent early this season? Anyone seen it lately? No? Better hope it stays out of the picture as sooner or later, one of these low trackers will come north. They can't all go to Mexico- or can they?

[boca]

This might be wrong to say this but if theirs a system out there heading towards a land mass I rather it not be the United States.

[wxman57]

Wxman57....seeing that the other globals are all weakening the ridge, are you saying you're basing your forecast track solely off the Euro? What about Derek? Euro too?

I would say that you're not looking at the right level. Look at the mid-levels for steering, not the surface chart. Check the ECMWF map I posted above and compare it to the GFS and NOGAPS below. All predict a moderate ridge building over the Gulf by early next week. Easterly flow south of the ridge points to Nicaragua for a likely landfall.

[wxman57]

That steering current I posted before is for today not next Tuesday.The Euro is the only model showing a building ridge sitting over the Gulf of Mexico. Things can change in five days.

Better look at the GFS and NOGAPS 500mb flow maps I posted above, Euro isn't alone.

[wxman57]

And just for good measure, let's see what the Canadian model says for next Monday night. Hmm, same ridge the Euro, GFS, and NOGAPS show over the Gulf. A strong argument for a rapid westward movement toward Nicaragua and no turn toward the Gulf.

[flwxwatcher]

That steering current I posted before is for today not next Tuesday.The Euro is the only model showing a building ridge sitting over the Gulf of Mexico. Things can change in five days.

Better look at the GFS and NOGAPS 500mb flow maps I posted above, Euro isn't alone.

WXMAN57.. you beat me to it. I was just looking at the 500 MB charts of the GFS and NOGAPS and that South track looks like a pretty good bet .

[storms in NC]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
732 AM EDT FRI AUG 31 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN
A NORTHEAST DIRECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE EAST COAST AND
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN MAY PERSIST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

[BigD]

Definitely looks like the Gulf will be closed for business next week. Odd pattern this year.