Invest 96L,North Atlantic-Discussions

[BigA]

As evidenced by the recent blow up of convection on the northeast side, it's trying. I've got to admire a system that is trying, especially when it is not threatening any land areas.

[HURAKAN]

JUST FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES:

Arlene:


96L:

[HURAKAN]

Dvorak:
31/0945 UTC 38.1N 70.9W T1.5/1.5 96L -- Atlantic Ocean

[HURAKAN]

Once again the system becomes exposed.

[Thunder44]

481
WHXX01 KWBC 311226
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1226 UTC FRI AUG 31 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962007) 20070831 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070831 1200 070901 0000 070901 1200 070902 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 38.1N 70.5W 39.0N 69.6W 39.1N 67.4W 38.2N 64.1W
BAMD 38.1N 70.5W 40.3N 68.0W 43.3N 63.1W 47.0N 57.9W
BAMM 38.1N 70.5W 39.4N 68.7W 40.7N 65.0W 42.0N 60.0W
LBAR 38.1N 70.5W 39.9N 68.2W 42.4N 64.5W 45.9N 59.0W
SHIP 30KTS 36KTS 47KTS 55KTS
DSHP 30KTS 36KTS 47KTS 55KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070902 1200 070903 1200 070904 1200 070905 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 36.5N 60.7W 33.1N 56.9W 32.9N 55.4W 34.6N 52.1W
BAMD 50.5N 52.8W 57.8N 41.9W 63.8N 24.3W 65.4N 1.2E
BAMM 43.0N 54.9W 43.6N 46.1W 43.7N 37.5W 43.6N 32.0W
LBAR 50.0N 50.8W .0N .0W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 57KTS 47KTS 43KTS 28KTS
DSHP 53KTS 43KTS 39KTS 24KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 38.1N LONCUR = 70.5W DIRCUR = 40DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 37.2N LONM12 = 70.5W DIRM12 = 329DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 35.7N LONM24 = 70.4W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 90NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

No upgrade yet, though winds are up to 30kts and pressure down to 1003mb.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Systems like this not being upgraded makes me think that half the system that form in the gulf or western caribbean don't deserve upgrading. Because some of them get less then 1.0t. As far as I'm concerned they are less systems.

[HURAKAN]

Systems like this not being upgraded makes me think that half the system that form in the gulf or western caribbean don't deserve upgrading. Because some of them get less then 1.0t. As far as I'm concerned they are less systems.

You and me should take over the NHC!!!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Systems like this not being upgraded makes me think that half the system that form in the gulf or western caribbean don't deserve upgrading. Because some of them get less then 1.0t. As far as I'm concerned they are less systems.

You and me should take over the NHC!!!!

Yeah...

This thing has a well defined LLC with convection bursting over it. Not a bad system better then 30-40 percent of the systems in the Gulf. Possibly more. I'm sorry I'm this way, but I just like to have a standard. It is hard for me to see one system get upgraded that looks like nothing then have something "stronger" then it not being upgraded.

I understand that they upgrade a system because of land. But this hurts seasonal forecast some what. When there is so much pressure on it these days.

[Derek Ortt]

is it warm core though?

[Lowpressure]

is it warm core though?

Was Chantal?

[HURAKAN]

is it warm core though?

Up to now the NHC has only indicated the possibility of tropical development, not subtropical. This may indicate they think the system is tropical.

[Chacor]

is it warm core though?

Was Chantal?

Yes, Chantal was warm-core, otherwise it wouldn't have been called a tropical storm.

As for 96L... 06Z GFS suggests borderline cold-core.

[HURAKAN]

No change:
31/1145 UTC 38.1N 70.5W T1.5/1.5 96L -- Atlantic Ocean

[CrazyC83]

This may be the No-Name Storm of 2007...

[RL3AO]

This may be the No-Name Storm of 2007...

I thought it was going to be Chantal when it took the NHC so long. But you are probably right about this one (Chantal II).

[DESTRUCTION5]

It should get its name..It really looks like Felix to me..

[Thunder44]

It looks extratropical transition may be already beginning, on satellite imagery. The LLC is being more removed and stretched out, from convection to the east, and the convection itself is beginning to weaken. I doubt NHC will bother with this one anymore.

[Coredesat]

It should get its name..It really looks like Felix to me..

It wouldn't be named anyway, the winds associated with it aren't tropical storm force. The strongest winds on QuikSCAT are 30 kt, and there have been no reports of anything stronger.

[Hurricaneman]

This will probably get named in January when they do a possible reanalysis

[CrazyC83]

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas19.png

Center is around 37.7°N 71.5°W according to QuikSCAT.