Invest 94L,Near Windwards-Discussions

[gatorcane]

my jaw just about dropped when I read that forecast by Dr Masters. I cannot understand his line of reasoning at all

Not surprising at all...two back-to-back systems hitting CA is very unlikely....and to say its moving all the way to Nicaragua 5 days out is risky although possible.

In mid August when Dean traversed the Caribbean, ridges last longer but as we approach September they can break down more quickly and models have a tougher time with them.

Climatology says it should turn WNW or NW eventually.

[wxman57]

Dr. Jeff Masters has a completely different view from many, including the best computers models in the world. Dr. Masters suggests:

"If 94L does survive and pass into the Central Caribbean, a more northwesterly turn to threaten Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba is not out of the question."

The steering regime would seem to indicate that this is indeed possible, although it would have to remain weak to do so:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

What you have to consider is that is a CURRENT steering level chart. You need to look at the forecast for 2-3 days from now. The ridge north of 94L will build westward, so the steering level winds are changing with time.

[Derek Ortt]

latest SSM/I pass shows the center closer to 11 and I see it that way from the microwave pass you posted as well, Sanibel

This storm is no threat to the USA (unless it even moves farther south of what I am thinking, crosses over, catches another huge ridge and threatens Hawaii

[Fego]

What about those pics?, well I see is the same.

[gatorcane]

Dr. Jeff Masters has a completely different view from many, including the best computers models in the world. Dr. Masters suggests:

"If 94L does survive and pass into the Central Caribbean, a more northwesterly turn to threaten Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba is not out of the question."

The steering regime would seem to indicate that this is indeed possible, although it would have to remain weak to do so:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

What you have to consider is that is a CURRENT steering level chart. You need to look at the forecast for 2-3 days from now. The ridge north of 94L will build westward, so the steering level winds are changing with time.

Right we better hope it builds westward.....the point is that it may not and models might have overlooked something (case in point: Ernesto 2006)

[RL3AO]

latest SSM/I pass shows the center closer to 11 and I see it that way from the microwave pass you posted as well, Sanibel

This storm is no threat to the USA (unless it even moves farther south of what I am thinking, crosses over, catches another huge ridge and threatens Hawaii

You just crushed the hopes of about 30% of the people on the board.

[Derek Ortt]

You just crushed the hopes of about 30% of the people on the board.

I figured I did

[miamicanes177]

latest SSM/I pass shows the center closer to 11 and I see it that way from the microwave pass you posted as well, Sanibel

This storm is no threat to the USA (unless it even moves farther south of what I am thinking, crosses over, catches another huge ridge and threatens Hawaii

You just crushed the hopes of about 30% of the people on the board.

Forecast skill at 5+ days is subject to extreme error, and even the NHC has an error over hundreds of miles at 5+ days. It is way way too soon to determine the forecast track of 94L. It's not even an official depression yet.

And I would be interested in the historical forecast track error of Derek Ortt at 5-7 days out.

[wxman57]

my jaw just about dropped when I read that forecast by Dr Masters. I cannot understand his line of reasoning at all

Not surprising at all...two back-to-back systems hitting CA is very unlikely....and to say its moving all the way to Nicaragua 5 days out is risky although possible.

In mid August when Dean traversed the Caribbean, ridges last longer but as we approach September they can break down more quickly and models have a tougher time with them.

Climatology says it should turn WNW or NW eventually.

It's a good thing that climatology doesn't steer hurricanes. While I wouldn't absolutely 100% rule out any WNW-NW turn, I think the chances of that look slim. Remember 2-3 days ago the models were all turning 94L NW toward the NE Caribbean and I pointed out the same error they made with Dean, and that a more westerly course was likely? That's exactly what is happening. But now, the models have come into agreement with a more rapid westward track. Makes me feel pretty confident in a landfall from Belize southward to Nicaragua, south of Dean's track. This one will be a greater threat to Aruba than Jamaica.

[DESTRUCTION5]

You just crushed the hopes of about 30% of the people on the board.

I figured I did

No one here should have expected this to turn north in this pattern..Pretty straight FWD..

[skysummit]

latest SSM/I pass shows the center closer to 11 and I see it that way from the microwave pass you posted as well, Sanibel

This storm is no threat to the USA (unless it even moves farther south of what I am thinking, crosses over, catches another huge ridge and threatens Hawaii

So there's absolutely no possible way a trough will dig down in 5 days or so and weaken the ridge? Is that what you're saying? Absolutely NO THREAT?

[RL3AO]

I don't buy anything from the models. They didn't forecast a TD to form and they are making the same errors that they did with Dean.

[wxman57]

latest SSM/I pass shows the center closer to 11 and I see it that way from the microwave pass you posted as well, Sanibel

This storm is no threat to the USA (unless it even moves farther south of what I am thinking, crosses over, catches another huge ridge and threatens Hawaii

You just crushed the hopes of about 30% of the people on the board.

Forecast skill at 5+ days is subject to extreme error, and even the NHC has an error over hundreds of miles at 5+ days. It is way way too soon to determine the forecast track of 94L. It's not even an official depression yet.

Makes absolutely no difference if it has a name or not, we can forecast where it will most likely track. For all practical purposes, it IS a depression but without a name now. True, as it gets better organized we'll be more confident in the track. But I've rarely seen such strong model consensus for a westward track.

[Sanibel]

Yeah, I wondered about that. Visible loop looks pretty clear at 11 latitude. Must be an illusion in the microwave image (unless the center is sheared - which I doubt)

I knew this one would form because it had spin - even though some were saying "move on to the next storm". It convected-up right where I said it would too.

The islands will give us good readings.

[Derek Ortt]

This is one of the easier forecasts I have had to make.

I am fairly certain that best track will declare this as an official TD. remember, advisory information is NOT truly official, only best track is (and sometimes forecasts are made prior to advisories being issued)

[Blown Away]

A difference of opinion between the Pro's, I like it.

A Dean type track does not occur very often, so to have 2 low riding Dean type tracks in the same year is extremely rare. So I will bet that 94L's future will be much different than a Dean type track. Just playing the odds w/o science.

[AtlanticWind]

Though I would agree this will likely most westward into the carribean , I do remember last year where ernesto turned north despite most models showing it going west into the gulf.

[Fego]

I remember that early in the week a few predicted that this invest wouldn't develope, other said it will but after crossing the Caribbean. !I love the tropics!.

[CrazyC83]

Looks like TD6 (should be TD7 but I think they are letting 96L slip away) right now.

[Buck]

I guess it's safe to wait for recon, but I don't think it would've been foolish or hasty to go ahead and declare this a Tropical Depression at 11.