Credibility of Expert Predictions if Season Busts

[gatorcane]

What do you think the impact of a bust season will be on the credibility of forecasters such as Gray and other weather experts who predict #of storms (should the season actually end up way below the predictions)? These experts predicted an above normal season again this year. Last year most of them were wrong but they attributed this error to a surprise El Nino. There is actually a slight La Nina this year....

One thing is for sure -- we have a *long* way to predicting the number of storms. Clearly mother nature and her hurricanes continue to baffle mankind and we may have yet to figure out a way to forecast them accurately.

[dwg71]

I think most know its an inexact science at best, we are still in the infancy of predicting things like this. I dont think it will deter them and retract some credibility, they will add this years data to future forecasts and hopefully they will become even more accurate.

[sfwx]

It is as credible as it gets. No one has been able to figure out old Mother Nature and I applaud them for even trying. Aren't scientists WRONG most of the time and they go back and assess what went wrong or why it went wrong? There are so many variables involved that a true accurate tropical forecast may never happen.

Eric

[x-y-no]

Well if this season winds up below average then there'll have to be some major reassessment of seasonal forecast methods. Last year was explainable by the unexpected El Nino - but there's no convenient explanation this year.

Plenty of time left for having a busy season, though. Let's see what September brings.

[storms in NC]

It is like asking the 8 ball. You win some you lose some. it is just that a quessing game. No one can tell what is going to happen 6 months down the road. They have a hard time with just 3 days. Don't fool Mother Nature. She may come back and bite you back

[Downdraft]

I never really cared what the numbers were to begin with and I won't next year or the year after that. People get to wrapped up in the numbers but the way I see it that's silly. It only takes one Andrew, one Hugo, one Ivan, one Mitch, one Katrina, etc to make a season. If nothing else happened this year I'd be a happy camper from the enjoyment I got out of watching Dean. I'm tired of people expecting 20 storms or the season is a bust or worse yet, if we don't have a major landfalling hurricane in the U.S. the season is a bust. With all the basins to observe the season lasts a lot longer than June 1 to November 30.

[jasons2k]

Plenty of time left for having a busy season, though. Let's see what September brings.

Yes, thank you!!
I think if I see one more season-cancel/bust related thread before September with at LEAST 5 named storms already I think I'm going to have an aneurysm

[fci]

Downdraft nailed the answer.

It takes one horrific storm to make a season.
Andrew, Camille, Hugo, Katrina, Wilma....... and many more.
Dean was on the cusp of being such a storm but decided to hit relatively unpopulated areas. Those who live there would not agree with me but as a resident of the U.S. I get swayed more by threats to the U.S. Not that I don't have concerns for the relatively unpopulated areas of Mexico but storms really don't become historic when they hit there.
But I digress......

Bottom line is that the "experts" are guessing.
Simple as that.

Yes, more educated than me or you (probably, unless "you" are an expert); but it is a guessing game.

I have NEVER put down a prediction of the number of storms, majors, etc.. since I DON'T KNOW!

And either does anyone else.....

So, let's take sheets of paper and put numbers from, lets say; 6 to 20 on them and have a monkey pick one out and use it as our prediction.
See how it does.

Lets have 50 of them pick random pieces of paper out of a hat and we can cell it the MPOOH Model # of Storms Predictor! (Monkey Pick Out of Hat).
Maybe register it as a model and call a press conference.

I'll get right on it!!!!

[storms in NC]

Downdraft nailed the answer.

It takes one horrific storm to make a season.
Andrew, Camille, Hugo, Katrina, Wilma....... and many more.
Dean was on the cusp of being such a storm but decided to hit relatively unpopulated areas. Those who live there would not agree with me but as a resident of the U.S. I get swayed more by threats to the U.S. Not that I don't have concerns for the relatively unpopulated areas of Mexico but storms really don't become historic when they hit there.
But I digress......

Bottom line is that the "experts" are guessing.
Simple as that.

Yes, more educated than me or you (probably, unless "you" are an expert); but it is a guessing game.

I have NEVER put down a prediction of the number of storms, majors, etc.. since I DON'T KNOW!

And either does anyone else.....

So, let's take sheets of paper and put numbers from, lets say; 6 to 20 on them and have a monkey pick one out and use it as our prediction.
See how it does.

Lets have 50 of them pick random pieces of paper out of a hat and we can cell it the MPOOH Model # of Storms Predictor! (Monkey Pick Out of Hat).
Maybe register it as a model and call a press conference.

I'll get right on it!!!!

These people wouldn't think that was funny. Please read.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Mitch

[fci]

I was laughing at the prospect of the group of Monkey's picking numbers out of a hat.
Certainly not any destruction from storms not hitting the US.
I thought that was apparent.............

[Jam151]

How many storms do yall want? There's around 4 suspect areas right now. If 2 of those form into TCs, that's 7NS before Sep 10 (the climo peak). That sets us up for around 14NS for the season, and who knows if the 2nd half will be more active than the first. It's too early for threads like this.

[Cryomaniac]

Plenty of time left for having a busy season, though. Let's see what September brings.

Yes, thank you!!
I think if I see one more season-cancel/bust related thread before September with at LEAST 5 named storms already I think I'm going to have an aneurysm

If you keep banging your head on that wall, you'll have an aneurysm!!

[hurricanetrack]

2005 was also a terrible under-forecast by the experts. Very bad. Way, way under done.

[cpdaman]

i second the sentiment provided by storm in NC, and down draft and to the poster who said it's too early to ask questions like this (?) we can ask questions like this the day the prediction comes out.


my answer to how much credibility they will lose. NONE . regarding predicting the hurricane season totals hey had NONE to begin with. yes they are the best at what they can do accurately, and this is not and will not be predicted accurately IMO

they will tell you it is in it's infancy, yet some insurance agents use these inaccurate guesses to adjust insurance premiums (seems like a loopwhole for foul play(guessing active seasons) to me)

[Sanibel]

They'll obviously lose credibility since they'll bust badly 2 years in a row. Africa isn't looking too hot right now as far as waves or conditions. Global warming could be strengthening the dry ridge sweeping into the hurricane belt.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

They'll obviously lose credibility since they'll bust badly 2 years in a row. Africa isn't looking too hot right now as far as waves or conditions. Global warming could be strengthening the dry ridge sweeping into the hurricane belt.

True...Global warming is heating the caribbean waters but could also strengthen the dry ridge.
Those water temps are hot hot hot. Near record. Global warming is clearly playing a role.

[ConvergenceZone]

They'll obviously lose credibility since they'll bust badly 2 years in a row. Africa isn't looking too hot right now as far as waves or conditions. Global warming could be strengthening the dry ridge sweeping into the hurricane belt.

Every day that passes by without development is just nail in the coffin. Granted there's alot of nails to put in it, but nonetheless, this is just another one....It's not looking good...

I only look at those number by the NHC for entertainment only, never take them seriously.

[Category 5]

Let me ask a question.

Have they EVER been 100% right?

[cpdaman]

Let me ask a question.

Have they EVER been 100% right?

regarding what? please i wouldn't steer this discussion to such a simplistic level. it is not black and white. never is. there are different degrees of difficulty when predicting

1 day forecast 3 day 5 day etc they all have less and less levels of "100% rightness"

and 6 month and 3 month tropical forecasts have such a high level of uncertainty that they are IMO useless unless (possibly) there is a strong to moderate El nino event.

so i dont think you can compare or use (as a reason) for validity, the point that tropical forecasts are not 100 percent accurate like all other forecasts . the 3 day forecast which is also not 100 percent accurate, is used because it has a high enough degree of accuracy. it is the same reason you don' see a 30 day forecast, because (while they are also less than 100 percent, like everythin) it is to a degree of uselessness

that is if you read between the lines

[Downdraft]

Let me ask a question.

Have they EVER been 100% right?

Let me answer you then, does it matter? You live in a hurricane area you prepare whether you get 1 or 20. I don't worry about what's forecast I worry about what develops. I'm certainly not in a position to be presumptuous enough to think I have the expertise to criticize Dr. Gray, NOAA or anyone else that is recognized as an expert in the field.