Credibility of Expert Predictions if Season Busts

[RL3AO]

They have errors with the 5 day forecast sometimes. What do you expect for the six month forecast. The NHC is good, but not that good.

[Category 5]

Let me ask a question.

Have they EVER been 100% right?

Let me answer you then, does it matter? You live in a hurricane area you prepare whether you get 1 or 20. I don't worry about what's forecast I worry about what develops. I'm certainly not in a position to be presumptuous enough to think I have the expertise to criticize Dr. Gray, NOAA or anyone else that is recognized as an expert in the field.

My point isn't that, my point is that some people take the preseason outlook too seriously, it's a guide at best, some people look at it and expect it to always be right.

[fci]

Let me ask a question.

Have they EVER been 100% right?

Let me answer you then, does it matter? You live in a hurricane area you prepare whether you get 1 or 20. I don't worry about what's forecast I worry about what develops. I'm certainly not in a position to be presumptuous enough to think I have the expertise to criticize Dr. Gray, NOAA or anyone else that is recognized as an expert in the field.

My point isn't that, my point is that some people take the preseason outlook too seriously, it's a guide at best, some people look at it and expect it to always be right.

I pay no heed whatsoever to the predictions.
NO ONE knows how many storms we will have in any given season.
I don't even see the predictions as a guide.

The experts could predict the "average" every year and be right more often
Mathematically that make sense.

To gain a good idea of the credence I pay the predictions see my post on Page 1 where I suggested the MPOOH Model # of Storms Predictor! (Monkey Pick Out of Hat).

[HURAKAN]

Predictions will always be predictions, which means that they will never be 100% correct. But there's a science to what they're doing. Meaning, you look for what's the current pattern and you compared it with previous years as a reference. That will give you an idea of how many storms you should expect that season. I think everyone can do it.

It's like rain chances. If you got a 70% that it would rain, and it doesn't rain in your house, then you got the 30% that said that it wouldn'd rain!!!

[fci]

I don't discount that there is science involved based on patterns.

However, 2005 and this season are exhibits A and B on how not good they can be.

I say predict an "average" year EVERY year and you will beat the experts on a regular basis.

[benny]

One good rule.. don't verify the seasonal forecasts before the season is up!