TS FELIX: RECON Discussion

[Lowpressure]

Yes, I know. I was just saying that unfortunately for SA at some point the graphic will be correct. Kinda like the stopped clock.

[x-y-no]

They're criss-crossing around trying to fix a center.

Looks like a pretty broad, loose circulation still - but closed nonetheless.

Deserves to be upgraded to TD in my opinion.

[Chacor]

Accuweather is becoming the JTWC of the Atlantic. Unfortunately the JTWC does a much better job. Nevertheless, nothing says Accuweather can't do it, or you, or me.

The JTWC is semi-official (best described as a #2 source - JMA is the official source) being a NOAA agency.

JTWC is a DOD agency, not an NOAA/DOC one.

[Lowpressure]

System not very impressive at all- to this point- per hunter. Minimal TD, with good potential down the road. IMO.

[Thunder44]

Have the found any NW winds? There was a ship report from ELQQ4 of NW 22mph and 1009.5mb, so unless that ob doesn't pass QC. This looks like at 25kt TD at best, so far.

[CrazyC83]

Have the found any NW winds? There was a ship report from ELQQ4 of NW 22mph and 1009.5mb, so unless that ob doesn't pass QC. This looks like at 25kt TD at best, so far.

Yes they did when they did the first pass of the center (albeit very briefly).

[Thunder44]

They are flying around 400m meters so standard reduction is 80%. 29kts is about 23kts at the surface.

[Derek Ortt]

Accuweather's products do not even compre to the ones I out out. To say they are number 2 to NHC is beyond laughable. I know of quite a few other forecasts that easily beat theirs

[wxman57]

Accuweather's products do not even compre to the ones I out out. To say they are number 2 to NHC is beyond laughable. I know of quite a few other forecasts that easily beat theirs

I only listen to TWC - "The Hurricane Authority".

[Lowpressure]

Accuweather's products do not even compre to the ones I out out. To say they are number 2 to NHC is beyond laughable. I know of quite a few other forecasts that easily beat theirs

Totally agree Derek!

[Brent]

Accuweather's products do not even compre to the ones I out out. To say they are number 2 to NHC is beyond laughable. I know of quite a few other forecasts that easily beat theirs

I only listen to TWC - "The Hurricane Authority".

I had to rely on them for a couple of days during Dean due to a major internet outage, and the frequent mistakes they made were laughable. I can't even remember them all now but I know one time Dean was supposedly moving east. When it was a Cat 4 east of Jamaica still it was declared one of the strongest hurricanes ever.

[dwg71]

94L is not looking that great at the moment, warming cloud tops (expected at this time of day), i dont really see the need to issue and upgrade at 5PM.
Maybe at 11PM if convection persists around a center.

[HenkL]

NOUS42 KNHC 311430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT FRI 31 AUGUST 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-099

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 02/0000Z
B. NOAA2 0306A CYCLONE
C. 01/2000Z
D. 13.0N 67.5W
E. 01/2100Z TO 02/0300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO
A. 02/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0406A CYCLONE
C. 02/0400Z
D. 13.2N 69.2W
E. 02/0500Z TO 02/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE
A. 02/1200Z
B. NOAA3 0506A CYCLONE
C. 02/0800Z
D. 13.5N 71.0W
E. 02/0930Z TO 02/1430Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12 HRLY FIXES.
P-3 DOPPLER RADAR MISSIONS EVERY 12 HRS

II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

The flight numbers are nn06A.

[CrazyC83]

NOUS42 KNHC 311430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT FRI 31 AUGUST 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-099

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 02/0000Z
B. NOAA2 0306A CYCLONE
C. 01/2000Z
D. 13.0N 67.5W
E. 01/2100Z TO 02/0300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO
A. 02/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0406A CYCLONE
C. 02/0400Z
D. 13.2N 69.2W
E. 02/0500Z TO 02/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE
A. 02/1200Z
B. NOAA3 0506A CYCLONE
C. 02/0800Z
D. 13.5N 71.0W
E. 02/0930Z TO 02/1430Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12 HRLY FIXES.
P-3 DOPPLER RADAR MISSIONS EVERY 12 HRS

II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

The flight numbers are nn06A.

Interesting, first sign of an upgrade?

[x-y-no]

Accuweather's products do not even compre to the ones I out out. To say they are number 2 to NHC is beyond laughable. I know of quite a few other forecasts that easily beat theirs

Absolutely agree. First and foremost, you consistently put out verifiable forecast tracks. Accuweather has only very rarely and sporadically issued verifiable forecasts - preferring to speak in generalities and produce vague and sometimes (as today) very inaccurate graphics.

BTW, over 4 hours and counting (and a recon vortex message saying 1009mb) and Accuweather still says this has a pressure of 988mb.

[oyster_reef]

Accuweather's products do not even compre to the ones I out out. To say they are number 2 to NHC is beyond laughable. I know of quite a few other forecasts that easily beat theirs

Absolutely agree. First and foremost, you consistently put out verifiable forecast tracks. Accuweather has only very rarely and sporadically issued verifiable forecasts - preferring to speak in generalities and produce vague and sometimes (as today) very inaccurate graphics.

BTW, over 4 hours and counting (and a recon vortex message saying 1009mb) and Accuweather still says this has a pressure of 988mb.

but all in all, they are the best recognized and most profitable weather service in the open marktet. They are a business and they have done that well.

McDonalds doesn't make the best burger either. They do make money.

[x-y-no]

but all in all, they are the best recognized and most profitable weather service in the open marktet. They are a business and they have done that well.

McDonalds doesn't make the best burger either. They do make money.

True, but you don't see McDonalds trash-talking Bobby Flay about the quality of his burgers.

If I hear one word of boasting about how they called this TD 6 hours before NHC did, I'm going to be absolutely outraged.

[Derek Ortt]

besides, NHC called this TD 6 very early today... they have already issued 3 forecasts on this system. So no, Accuwx did NOT call this before NHC

[cycloneye]

besides, NHC called this TD 6 very early today... they have already issued 3 forecasts on this system. So no, Accuwx did NOT call this before NHC

Those are not for public comsumption right?

[tolakram]

besides, NHC called this TD 6 very early today... they have already issued 3 forecasts on this system. So no, Accuwx did NOT call this before NHC

Those are not for public comsumption right?

How can a government agency like NHC produce forecasts that aren't for public consumption? Is there an explanation of this somewhere?