Invest 94L,Near Windwards-Discussions

[storms in NC]

(That is an estimate that isn't based on any measured wind data.)


Lick finger stick out window.LOLOLOLOL sorry Mods I had to say it. Having a really bad day.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Looking more intense.

[windstorm99]

Infrared loop....You can see the over all better organization improveing as it taps into those warmer SST'S.

[wxman57]

Here's the 12Z European with surface analysis down to 0.5mb and 500mb flow to 10 meter increments. It now has a closed low (as opposed to the open wave earlier) hitting northern Nicaragua Tuesday morning with strong ridging to the north.

New recon - 12.8N/59.5W FL 350/31 kts, surface 050/30 kts.

[BigA]

Looks like it should clear South America, but dry air from SA could still affect it.

[hurricanefloyd5]

Am I blind/seeing things or dose this system/TD#6 looks to be moving on a more wnw track???? If this is true and not saying it is but if it is true then the track has to be shifted farther north and I correct????

[bvigal]

It's true, that Vortex surface winds are estimated, I read the note at the bottom. And I understand the tendency, then, to follow the rules and use the formula for converting flight level winds. But, one way they do the surface estimates is, they LOOK at the sea. Waves look certain ways at certain wind speeds. For example, you can't have a light wind blowing the tops clean off waves, when you see that, you know the winds are over 40kts. The human brain and eye are still better, in some respects, than all the formulas to-date. If the observer saw 30kt winds, I BELIEVE that, because it makes more sense, looking at surrounding conditions. Heck, we had 19-20kt sustained winds here today, with gust to 26, reported by an experienced captain who's on the water every day. Meanwhile, our airport reported no more that 15mph, and it's a dead flat open island, not protected by hills. It's always windier out on the water, and 22.5kt is just a good sailing day out on the open Atlantic.

[storms in NC]

Am I blind/seeing things or dose this system/TD#6 looks to be moving on a more wnw track???? If this is true and not saying it is but if it is true then the track has to be shifted farther north and I correct????

I siad this all day. It was moving WNW.

[Thunder44]

The STDS from earlier has been taken down from the NHC site. That probably means they've made a decision already to upgrade or not.

[miamicanes177]

New recon - 12.8N/59.5W FL 350/31 kts, surface 050/30 kts.

Is this the center at 12.8N 59.5W? If so then that is much further north than the models thought. The BAMM did not have it at 12.8N until about 65W. GFDL was closer bringing it there at about 62W. Let's see if this changes the track any if that is indeed the center.

[Derek Ortt]

STDS's usually only remain online for 6 hours

[wxman57]

New recon - 12.8N/59.5W FL 350/31 kts, surface 050/30 kts.

Is this the center at 12.8N 59.5W? If so then that is much further north than the models thought. The BAMM did not have it at 12.8N until about 65W. GFDL was closer bringing it there at about 62W. Let's see if this changes the track any if that is indeed the center.

That's the lat/lon where the wind observation was made. It's northwest of the center a good ways.

[windstorm99]

There you have it 06L.NONAME up on NRL...

[cycloneye]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

NRL has NONAME.

[RL3AO]

There we go.

[Buck]

Finally!

[Brent]

FINALLY!

[cycloneye]

When the advisory is issued,this thread will be locked.

[windstorm99]

Thoughts on the center being located at 12N...

[pojo]

we have a noname!!!