TS FELIX: RECON Discussion

Derek Ortt · #61 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Fri Aug 31, 2007 3:44 pm

it was carried internally as a depression. That is the responsible thing to do when there is a marginal system... in fact, I did the same... only HRD saw the forecast track I issued at 1500 UTC

miamicanes177 · #62 Postby **miamicanes177** » Fri Aug 31, 2007 4:00 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:it was carried internally as a depression. That is the responsible thing to do when there is a marginal system... in fact, I did the same... only HRD saw the forecast track I issued at 1500 UTC

What good does it do to hide "depression status" from the public? That is absurd. Kudos to Accuweather for speaking up and getting the word out. When you're a professional meteorologist and you see a depression you're supposed to call it a depression. If you see a spade then call it a spade.

oyster_reef · #63 Postby **oyster_reef** » Fri Aug 31, 2007 4:08 pm

miamicanes177 wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:it was carried internally as a depression. That is the responsible thing to do when there is a marginal system... in fact, I did the same... only HRD saw the forecast track I issued at 1500 UTC
What good does it do to hide "depression status" from the public? That is absurd. Kudos to Accuweather for speaking up and getting the word out. When you're a professional meteorologist and you see a depression you're supposed to call it a depression. If you see a spade then call it a spade.

I have to agree with that 100%

Derek Ortt · #64 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Fri Aug 31, 2007 4:08 pm

It is good if they are 75% sure of calling something a TD, but recon could still find something as not a TD

Besides, its a depression. Who really cares... the effects are the same for a TD or a weak TS as they are for a strong wave

#65 Postby **RL3AO** » Fri Aug 31, 2007 5:47 pm

223800 1205N 05838W 9657 00385 0091 +220 +220 174041 042 999 999 03

42kt FL winds.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #66 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Fri Aug 31, 2007 5:52 pm

42 knots*1.15*.9=43.47 mph at the surface. Or at .85 41 mph at the surface...So the case is soild.

#67 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Aug 31, 2007 5:52 pm

Félix at 8 PM, anyone!!!

42 * .90 = 37.8 kts

42 * .80 = 33.6 kts

Thunder44 · #68 Postby **Thunder44** » Fri Aug 31, 2007 5:53 pm

RL3AO wrote:223800 1205N 05838W 9657 00385 0091 +220 +220 174041 042 999 999 03

42kt FL winds.

That's about 34kts at the surface, we may have a TS at 8pm or 11pm.

#69 Postby **RL3AO** » Fri Aug 31, 2007 5:55 pm

They will probably wait until 11.

Bane · #70 Postby **Bane** » Fri Aug 31, 2007 5:55 pm

vortex had 35kt winds. it could definitely get the quick upgrade.

#71 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Aug 31, 2007 5:55 pm

44 x .80 = 35.2 kts (TS)

If they found 42 kts, it's very likely that 44 kts winds exist.

aguaviva · #72 Postby **aguaviva** » Fri Aug 31, 2007 6:05 pm

I think the only responsible thing to do, from the perspective of making people in warning areas aware about the magnitude of winds they should be expecting in a very short time frame is to upgrade at 8 pm, especially since there is no factor so far that has been identified which would cause the storm to weaken in the next 12 hours, by which time it will be right over the Southern Windwards, and because it is in fact intensifying fast.

miamicanes177 · #73 Postby **miamicanes177** » Fri Aug 31, 2007 6:14 pm

HURAKAN wrote:44 x .80 = 35.2 kts (TS)

If they found 42 kts, it's very likely that 44 kts winds exist.

The NHC using a rounding technique however so they would round 38.64mph (42kts FL at 80% conversion) to 40mph.

#74 Postby **CrazyC83** » Fri Aug 31, 2007 6:41 pm

That suggests we can say Hello Felix at 8 pm...a third storm before August comes to a close...

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