Hurricane FELIX: Caribbean-Discussions

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I do not see this as a threat to the US as of now, unless something drastic changes. I know it is not a given but the trough that was supposed to drop down early next week looks to be a lot weaker and the area forecast discussions from Houston to Mobile are all saying strong high pressure is going to be in the GOM early to mid next week. Another Dean type track.

[windstorm99]

As thought from the begining high pressure to its north will keep TD6 on a westward course through the caribbean on a track futher south then dean's.

U.S. threat at this time just is not there.Adrian

[RL3AO]

As thought from the begining high pressure to its north will keep TD6 on a westward course through the caribbean on a track futher south then dean's.

U.S. threat at this time just is not there.Adrian

Sure it is. It could hit Hawaii in 17-20 days.

[Recurve]

This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I trust tropical models three days out, but then.... -- they can miss changes. I'll be watching for anything might make it wander at 4-5 days and go more northward. I need to look at the UL models to do more than guess now though. Bears watching up here, since it's a long weekend. And a storm anniversary to remember (here is a story).

[cycloneye]

As we did with Dean,once a system is classified as a TD,a new thread is made and it will remain open until the last advisory is written.If TD SIX turns into a storm,thread will continue open and if it goes to hurricane the same.

[HURAKAN]

Latest: Bursting over the LLC

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Tropical depression 6
3:30pm pst/6:30pm est
8-31-2007


...6th offical tropical depression of the season develops east of the leeward islands.

Recon found a closed but broad LLC with 1009 millibar pressure, also they found 36 knot winds at flight level; that means that at the surface at .9 reduce the system is 37 mph. It is possible that small areas of higher winds are with in the system. The morning quickscat shown 35-40 knot winds on the east and southeast quad. The LLC and MLC are pretty well stacked with inflow in all quads. Latest shear charts show 20 knot shear to the south of the system with 10 knots over the system...That is only partly favorable for development of a tropical cyclone. Overall don't expect super fast strengthing over the next 12-36 hours hours. I do expect it to become a tropical storm by 5am est. Overall expect the upper level high pressure/Anticyclone that appears to be starting to form to strengthen over the system...A burst of convection is forming over the LLC, that could be the first formations of a cdo like cloud. Most of the shear appears to be above the height of the system. So it could strengthen faster then thinking. As it moves into the western Caribbean it should hit super TCHP and lower shear levels as the ridge builds north of it. But its overall forward speed could slow its strengthen down...Normally if the system becomes a hurricane the forward rate of speed no longer effects development...So once into the western caribbean this could get interesting.

The subtropical high pressure is north of the system...With a cell at 250-500 millibars near 25 north/60 west. This should help to keep the system at around 275-285 degrees westward through out the next 24-36 hours. The ridge is stronger as you go up into the Atmopshere...So a more intense system would go more westward, even against the fact the more intense systems like to go northward. The Gfdl at 12z shown a west-northwest track through the islands into the eastern Caribbean, through out the next 36 hours placing it near 13.8 north/66.5 west. It does not strengthen it to much...Even so it does strengthen it fast for the first 12 hours. We discounting that because of the fact that only one frame shows it. The Gfdl makes it a hurricane after 60-66 hours...The Gfdl fellows the nhc forecast track almost perfectly into Belize. At 126 hours...In fact it shows it shows it as a major hurricane. The 06z Gfdl did not show a developed system but a wave near 70 west at 48 hours...So give or take the trend on speed seems to be pretty good. The new Hwrf model shows it moving through the leewards at around 12-18 hours...Also for the next 6-12 hours it takes a more westward, fellowed by a west-northwest after 24 hours. At 48 hours it takes it to 14.5 north/69.5 west...Or near were the last few Gfdl's have been placing it. Just slightly northward...Most likely because it shows it as a very weak system. South of Hati it opens it up...

The 12z Gfs shown pretty much a west or west-northwest...Mostly not even closing the LLC. But the latest gfs shows a weak system moving into the Caribbean a lot like the Gfs...It shows it at 12 north/70 close to south America. I feel that is way to far southward. It does not even get it above 15 at 72-78 hours. The Gfs forecasts a high pressure cell to develop at 500 millibars over the western Atlatnic at 36-72 hours time frame. This helps the system to stay west or west-northwestward. At 90-96 hours the Gfs shows it just west of the central American coast line near 15.5-82 west. We think this is about 2-3 degrees to far south. The Gfs-MM5 shows the system very weak but at after 96 hours it turns it northwestward, making landfall in Cuba after 120 hours. It shows a weak low pressure in the eastern Gulf of Mexico,,,with another broad low pressure over the western Atlatnic, which is why it does it. The cmc crosses it just north of south America through out the next 36 hours...We find it hard to believe since its already at near 12 north. Our forecast is for it to fellow close to the Gfdl through the next 24-36 hours...Then slightly north of it through out the latter part of the forecast period. Landfall appears to be a good bet near 18 north at 120 to 126 hours near were dean made landfall. We will have to watch closely for a weakness.

hour and winds
0 30 knots
6 35 knots
12 40 knots
24 45 knots
36 55 knots
48 60 knots
72 75 knots
96 90 knots
120 105 knots

Forecaster Matthew


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[HURAKAN]

...6th offical tropical depression of the season develops east of the leeward islands.

Leeward = north

Windward = south

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[Rainband]

Hopefully this ridge lasts all season

[miamicanes177]

Despite what appears to be TS Felix, NHC says TD 6 has not strengthened.

NHC 8pm update:
"Repeating the 800 PM AST position...12.0 N...59.3 W. Movement
toward...west near 16 mph. Maximum sustained winds...35 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1008 mb."

Forecaster Beven

[Derek Ortt]

Kept as a TD, and properly so at 8 p.m.

[RL3AO]

If that growing burst of convection continues to get more organized, it may be upgraded at 11.

[miamicanes177]

Kept as a TD, and properly so at 8 p.m.

getting raw t#s at 4.3 right now...42kts flight level winds....with deep convection firing in earnest as we speak...I disagree with you based on these facts.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Derek are they using lower then .8 reduce?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Kept as a TD, and properly so at 8 p.m.

getting raw t#s at 4.3 right now...42kts flight level winds....with deep convection firing in earnest as we speak...I disagree with you based on these facts.

Don't look at the raw...

[miamicanes177]

Kept as a TD, and properly so at 8 p.m.

getting raw t#s at 4.3 right now...42kts flight level winds....with deep convection firing in earnest as we speak...I disagree with you based on these facts.

Don't look at the raw...

I did look at the raw and I will continue to do so.

[Ed Mahmoud]

w/ watches and warnings already issued, not upgrading on an intermediate advisory wouldn't seem all that big a deal.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

4.3t would be around be around 70+ knots. This is no were near it...It does it because it see's the deep convection. But does not take into account the organizion or anything else. At .8 if they took it from that reduce then it is very close if not a tropical storm. But the real cimss number is=
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.1 /1008.2mb/ 31.0kt

[Cyclone1]

With a pressure at only 1008, it should remain at depression status.