Long-Term Model Runs

[skysummit]

GOOD BYE MIAMI!

[cycloneye]

Yes,a MIAMI hit,maybe a tad south.

[skysummit]

Ok....now let's remember though. This is 16 days away, HOWEVER, the GFS is bring this offshore of Africa in only 3 DAYS! Could this be another Dean type forecast for the GFS?

[PTrackerLA]

WABAM!

That would effectively shut off all talk of a "quiet" year.

[dwg71]

384 = the portion of disneyworld that houses the Dumbo ride......... Fantasyland.

[cycloneye]

Now it will be very interesting to see if the 00z run later tonight has this again or close to it.

[Meso]

Yeah,as for the location of the storm.It's really like picking a random area along the coast.It will change lots before hand.But the consistency of storms moving off the coast by the GFS has been rather good.I really think we will be seeing something come off the coast within the next week or two based on what the GFS has been showing.As well as other models moving surges of low pressure off the coast in their runs,as well as some developing systems.

[skysummit]

384 = the portion of disneyworld that houses the Dumbo ride......... Fantasyland.

Yea, you also said something to that liking for it showing Dean at long range.

[Scorpion]

I recall the GFS forecasting Dean to hit Miami 384 hours out with similar strength depicted. The next GFS runs should be monitored for signs of any consistency.

[Meso]

lol skysummit. I've only ever seen dwg71 make negative comments on systems.No matter how they're looking or what anything says. It always seems to be a "It won't develop".But oh well.But for once I agree with him that at 384 hours one shouldn't count on anything.But the fact that the GFS develops the systems within a week or so changes it,although week long forecasts are still not that correct.

[skysummit]

I recall the GFS forecasting Dean to hit Miami 384 hours out with similar strength depicted. The next GFS runs should be monitored for signs of any consistency.

That's corrrect. Before Dean, I would've completely discounted 2 or even 3 runs in a row at long range. However, if tonight's 00z shows something similar....at least keeps a storm, I'll consider it a good possibility....especially since it's moving the system off of AFrica in only 3 days. That's not very long term.

[Brent]

lol skysummit. I've only ever seen dwg71 make negative comments on systems.No matter how they're looking or what anything says.

Same here!!!!

Anyway, not taking this seriously now, but it has to be watched for consistency.

[canegrl04]

Since Dean,I have more faith in the GFS. I will be closely following what they have to say with TD 6

[SWFLA_CANE]

GOOD BYE MIAMI!

If that were true it would also be goodbye to Naples.

[CrazyC83]

That's a 983mb low = a Category 1 hurricane.

[SWFLA_CANE]

That's a 983mb low = a Category 1 hurricane.

This was also about the same strength GFS showed Dean when he was already a Cat 5.

[deltadog03]

yea, that 983mb by a global model means like 930 on a real scale....That would be a SIG. hurricane to south florida...*** if that was right***

[windstorm99]

[SWFLA_CANE]

I think GFS is developing the wave that is exitting Africa now. We should get a better idea about development inthe next 48 to 72 hours.

[HeatherAKC]

Did the exact same thing with Dean. Straight into South Florida, run on the 14th of August................