Hurricane FELIX: Global & BAM Models

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Re: TD SIX: Global Models

#121 Postby miamicanes177 » Fri Aug 31, 2007 6:27 pm

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464
WHXX04 KWBC 312323
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX       06L

INITIAL TIME  18Z AUG 31

DISCLAIMER ...  THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE.  IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.  PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR        LATITUDE        LONGITUDE        HEADING/SPEED(KT)

   0            11.2             58.2           275./14.9
   6            11.5             59.3           287./10.6
  12            11.5             60.8           268./15.4
  18            11.8             62.5           280./16.7
  24            12.5             64.1           297./16.9
  30            12.6             65.6           272./15.0
  36            13.4             67.8           290./22.7
  42            13.7             69.6           281./17.8
  48            14.2             71.7           282./20.4
  54            14.1             73.3           269./15.8
  60            14.3             74.8           278./15.2
  66            14.6             76.6           278./17.3
  72            14.9             78.1           282./14.8
  78            15.1             79.6           280./14.4
  84            15.4             80.9           279./13.2
  90            15.7             82.2           286./13.2
  96            16.2             83.4           291./12.1
 102            16.3             84.5           278./10.8
 108            16.5             85.6           281./10.6
 114            16.6             86.6           276./ 9.1
 120            16.8             87.3           285./ 7.8
 126            17.1             88.4           283./10.1
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Re: TD SIX: Global Models=18z GFDL Posted at page 7

#122 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 31, 2007 6:35 pm

That initial plot from GFDL starts a tad south than what the 5 PM position was 11.8n-58-6w.
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Derek Ortt

#123 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Aug 31, 2007 6:41 pm

initial time from the GFDL is 1800 UTC, not 2100 UTC
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Re: TD SIX: Global Models=18z GFDL Posted at page 7

#124 Postby O Town » Fri Aug 31, 2007 6:51 pm

GFDL shows the storm going up till about 17 degrees and then making a bee line back south. Interesting.


Image
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Re: TD SIX: Global Models=18z GFDL Posted at page 7

#125 Postby Tertius » Fri Aug 31, 2007 7:01 pm

O Town wrote:GFDL shows the storm going up till about 17 degrees and then making a bee line back south. Interesting.


That's not the GFDL. That's a different model that always has odd little jogs in it seems. I'd ignore that one.
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Re: TD SIX: Global Models

#126 Postby Brent » Fri Aug 31, 2007 7:03 pm

That would be the HWRF. The lines are the same colors but the little positions are different shapes.
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#127 Postby lamsalfl » Fri Aug 31, 2007 7:04 pm

.2 north in 3 hours.

JUST SAYIN...
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Re: TD SIX: Global Models

#128 Postby O Town » Fri Aug 31, 2007 7:22 pm

Brent wrote:That would be the HWRF. The lines are the same colors but the little positions are different shapes.

*OTown returns to kindergarten to repeat lesson on shapes and colors............ :P
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Re: TD SIX: Global & BAM Models Thread

#129 Postby vaffie » Fri Aug 31, 2007 8:19 pm

If the models start to shift north at this point, they will shift north even more in a couple days, due to the weakness in the Western Gulf at midweek.
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Re: TD SIX: Global & BAM Models Thread

#130 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 31, 2007 8:19 pm

graphics...


https://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pagei ... ema=PORTAL


moved this over from the other thread....
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Re: TD SIX: Global & BAM Models Thread

#131 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 31, 2007 8:21 pm

vaffie wrote:If the models start to shift north at this point, they will shift north even more in a couple days, due to the weakness in the Western Gulf at midweek.



not willing to jump yet....We need to wait for the globals to jump then we might have something of a trend.
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Re: TD SIX: Global & BAM Models Thread

#132 Postby Stratosphere747 » Fri Aug 31, 2007 8:24 pm

ROCK wrote:
vaffie wrote:If the models start to shift north at this point, they will shift north even more in a couple days, due to the weakness in the Western Gulf at midweek.



not willing to jump yet....We need to wait for the globals to jump then we might have something of a trend.


Now your talking.
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#133 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Aug 31, 2007 8:25 pm

hmmm..

The HWRF model has also shifted north (according to ROCKs graphic). That is certainly interesting considering it is a "tropical" model.

I am still not buying into it yet though until we see more models jump north and more run-to-run consistancy.
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Re:

#134 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 31, 2007 8:26 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:hmmm..

The HWRF model has also shifted north (according to ROCKs graphic). That is certainly interesting considering it is a "tropical" model.

I am still not buying into it yet though until we see more models jump and more consistancy.



man I need to change my name. :D ..EWG- I am Paul on KHOU forum...but yes, not jumping on this bandwagon until the globals do.....
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Derek Ortt

#135 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Aug 31, 2007 8:28 pm

HWRF also has an open wave
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#136 Postby southerngale » Fri Aug 31, 2007 8:28 pm

Would someone mind uploading the above model graphic, that ROCK posted, to imageshack or somewhere and posting it? I have no idea why (as I could see that graphic last year), but it won't open for me, on any of my computers. I know of two other people in Texas, who have Roadrunner, with the same problem. hmmm

It's also nice for them to be uploaded before posting anyway, then you can look back and quickly see what they were when new ones come out. :)

Anyway, I'd appreciate it.
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Re:

#137 Postby vaffie » Fri Aug 31, 2007 8:29 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:hmmm..

The HWRF model has also shifted north (according to ROCKs graphic). That is certainly interesting considering it is a "tropical" model.

I am still not buying into it yet though until we see more models jump north and more run-to-run consistancy.


I just noticed that too. Quite a substantial move. And a superb model too, as I've noticed this summer. Note that it is the 18Z model however, so the 00Z model will be even more enlightening.

Refresh to see new HWRF: https://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pagei ... ema=PORTAL
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Re:

#138 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 31, 2007 8:30 pm

southerngale wrote:Would someone mind uploading the above model graphic, that ROCK posted, to imageshack or somewhere and posting it? I have no idea why (as I could see that graphic last year), but it won't open for me, on any of my computers. I know of two other people in Texas, who have Roadrunner, with the same problem. hmmm

It's also nice for them to be uploaded before posting anyway, then you can look back and quickly see what they were when new ones come out. :)

Anyway, I'd appreciate it.



sorry, I do not know how to use imageshack..... :D
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Re: TD SIX: Global & BAM Models Thread

#139 Postby Stratosphere747 » Fri Aug 31, 2007 8:33 pm

I don't know if I would consider the HWRF a "superb" model. It was all over the place at times with Dean.
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Re: TD SIX: Global & BAM Models Thread

#140 Postby ronjon » Fri Aug 31, 2007 8:34 pm

From what I can tell, the FSU MM5, HWRF, BAMS, BAMM now take the storm over or near JAM toward the Yucutan channel or NE tip of Yucatan. Both the MM5 & HWRF keep the system weak. And the BAM sh & med are steered more by the lower-to-mid levels. So, are we seeing just a different steering pattern for a weaker shallower steered storm versus a stronger deeper systemwhich would be more southward? Or are the models now seeing an erosion of the 500 mb ridge at the 5 day mark? Hmmm.....
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