Hurricane FELIX: Global & BAM Models

[Derek Ortt]

the shallow steering would be more northerly... but a hurricane is not steered by the shallow flow

[ronjon]

I don't know if I would consider the HWRF a "superb" model. It was all over the place at times with Dean.

Strat, actually the HWRF was pretty good on track - on intensity it suffered by one making it an open wave and the next run a CAT 5 hurricane. The GFDL peformed poorly on Dean's track (remember TX/LA) until about 48 hrs prior to landfall.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

jlauderdal, I was refering to September for this storm. I remember Dean quite well also. I was expecting him to turn north also and hit Texas or SW LA (Rita). As you mentioned high pressure has been dominate this year. The local weatherman here on the news this evening showed how many upper90 and 100 degree days we had this month. it was ridiculous.

[SoonerMaximus]

Would someone mind uploading the above model graphic, that ROCK posted, to imageshack or somewhere and posting it? I have no idea why (as I could see that graphic last year), but it won't open for me, on any of my computers. I know of two other people in Texas, who have Roadrunner, with the same problem. hmmm

It's also nice for them to be uploaded before posting anyway, then you can look back and quickly see what they were when new ones come out.

Anyway, I'd appreciate it.

I'm also in Texas, and if I want to view anything at all on the sfwmd.gov website, I have to use a proxy. I'm not Roadrunner, but it's starting to sound like Florida doesn't like Texas.

[Ixolib]

graphics...
https://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pagei ... ema=PORTAL
moved this over from the other thread....

[Berwick Bay]

Haven't been keeping track with TD 6. Have some of those models (BAMS) shifted north a little since this afternoon, or still about the same?

[Stratosphere747]

I don't know if I would consider the HWRF a "superb" model. It was all over the place at times with Dean.

Strat, actually the HWRF was pretty good on track - on intensity it suffered by one making it an open wave and the next run a CAT 5 hurricane. The GFDL peformed poorly on Dean's track (remember TX/LA) until about 48 hrs prior to landfall.

Maybe it was the intensity I was thinking about.

I need some verification stats!!

[hurricanetrack]

More north now. Not sure why....hmm....

[ronjon]

One thing I've noticed with the models shift toward the north is that BAMD and GFDL have also shifted north from their previous runs - although not as much as the BAM sh and medium. As we head into this weekend, things might really start to change on the long range tracks. Too early yet, but I'm sensing an erosion of the western end of the 500 mb high at 5 days.

[ROCK]

thanks Ixobil...I need to learn how to do that one day.....

[canegrl04]

The NHC model shows a north trend. along with the other 3.If the rest begin to do that as well, we are looking at a monster in the making for the GOM

[Ixolib]

thanks Ixobil...I need to learn how to do that one day.....

No problem...

[ROCK]

The NHC model shows a north trend. along with the other 3.If the rest begin to do that as well, we are looking at a monster in the making for the GOM

whoah now... I agree if something did get into the GOM there is plenty of heat potential to fuel a major.....but again BAMMS are not that great in the deep tropics. they will tend to jump around some....NOW if the globals shift significantly north then I might get nervous some....

[Stratosphere747]

I think it's a bit misleading for folks that see this shift in the BAM models and assume this is going to become a trend. It will take the global models to show any shift before we should take any real notice.

[ROCK]

I think it's a bit misleading for folks that see this shift in the BAM models and assume this is going to become a trend. It will take the global models to show any shift before we should take any real notice.

yes it is....but interesting none the less.....if you look at the 0Z steering layers at 200-700hpa you can see a NW flow in the carib....now at 700-850mb it looks more of a westly flow straight across...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm6.html

[Janie2006]

I too think we need greater model consensus on a more WNW-NW course before biting on the bait, so to speak. I do think the models may be sniffing around at something of interest, though. Besides, I've never been a big Emeril (BAM) fan anyway.

[windstorm99]

Models for TD6....

[ROCK]

The WRF is all over the place.... reminds me of old AE98 model ran some years ago.....or maybe the LBAR to some extent.....

[Vortex]

Nam 00z rolling out. At +42 much more pronounced NW movement


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_042l.gif

[jhamps10]

Nam 00z rolling out. At +42 much more pronounced NW movement


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_042l.gif

wow, unless nam takes it WSW from there, Belize is out of NAM's hit for now.