Hurricane FELIX: Caribbean-Discussions

[Cyclenall]

No reaction to that in eight minutes. Must be a new record.

It's the middle of the night for North America, what do you expect?

[Brent]

[Meso]

Looking good

[Derek Ortt]

Model shift may not mean anything

The GFDL ahift most certainly does not unless this weakens to a wave, as in 24 hours, the GFDL has this as an open wave before redeveloping

Models seem to be having a hard time figuring out that there is a TC

[Scorpion]

Even so, it looks like the NHC will have to shift its track north for 5 AM

[Brent]

Even so, it looks like the NHC will have to shift its track north for 5 AM

Probably just a little, I agree. They don't make dramatic shifts especially since the GFS/Euro, two very good models with Dean, are further south.

[Derek Ortt]

there is no reason to shift the track north

The only two globals that actually have this as a TC (and GFS barely at that) are south of the wave guidance. The Canadian, which has the depest cyclone, is still in Nicaragua.

The guidance that has this as a wave is not very meaningful unless this dissipates... so the US mainland threat remains small at this time

[Steve]

The apparent setup in the WPAC is different than what happened with Dean. It will be interesting to follow the forecast of Typhoon Fitow to see if it telegraphs anything. The last one supported the downstream ridging across the Gulf South. The evolution of the Fitow forecasts could show us whether this has the potential to be a threat to the U.S. and A or if it becomes another western Gulf storm.

https://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/wp1007.gif

Who knows?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 /1005.9mb/ 35.0kt

[Brent]

[KWT]

That track Brent would have Felix emerge back into the BOC and making a second (close to a third mind you!) around 20N in Mexico.

[windstorm99]

TS Felix NHC 5:00AM Discussion....

THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN SOLUTIONS GIVEN
THAT THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FELIX IS FORECAST TO BUILD
WESTWARD...SO THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH REASON FOR THE TRACK
OF FELIX TO BEND MUCH IF AT ALL TO THE NORTH. THIS NEW FORECAST IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY....IF ANYTHING NUDGED TO THE
SOUTH.

[Derek Ortt]

this track is similar to the track of Fifi... a name that has the same connotation to Mitch

best place for this to strike is where Dean did, as it was sparcely populated prior to dean and there is not exactly anything to damage now

[KWT]

I think at least in the next 3-4 days the track will be extremely close to Edith from 1971, both where it formed and its current track look really similar tohugh Felix is a touch stronger then Edith at this point. I think at least in the short term its a better match then Fifi, we better hope this doesn't turn into a Fifi...

[Derek Ortt]

Edith may be worse as that brings the center and RFQ into Honduras

[Normandy]

NHC shouldn't buy the north shift.

Felix is a good deal south of the forecast track right now it seems.

[Nimbus]

Both the GFDL and the Nogaps are showing some curve bringing the storm into the Yucatan near Cozumel. That is quite a change in guidance for just 24 hours. The NHC prudently has a rather large strike cone that covers Jamaica as well as the Honduras and Nicaragua slthough they are staying with a mostly western track for consistancy.

The upper air pattern in this mornings WV imagery still shows an anticyclone over the plains but it looks as though the atlantic ridge could move east and allow the weakness that forms between them to dig and maybe provide some steering, possibly even some shear. NHC has increased the intensity forecast so that Felix becomes a cat 2 before landfall in the Yucatan so none of that is in the official forecast.

It will be interested to see if all the models will maintain a high over the gulf in the long range upper air forecasts, that would diminish the chance of a US landfall.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[tormenta]

best place for this to strike is where Dean did, as it was sparcely populated prior to dean and there is not exactly anything to damage now

As always this is a relative thing, but I'm involved in relief efforts for that area, and the hundreds of people rebuilding right now would probably not agree.

[abajan]

So far, judging from the following observations, it would appear that Barbados has had the highest sustained winds:

• Grenada
• St. Vincent
• Barbados
• Tobago

Unfortunately, there is no record at 5:00 AM in Grenada so I don't know if any wind shift occured around that time. As for Barbados - the 15 mph recorded at 11:00 PM can be safely diregarded. Trust me, the winds around that time were much higher. It's just that at the exact time of the recording they were 15 mph.

Anyway, my main point is that the position of the Felix, as seen from the satellite pix and given in the official advisories, doesn't seem to gel with the observations from the above stations. I suppose topographical interaction may have something to do with the unexpected wind direction and speed in some instances. But still...