Hurricane FELIX: Caribbean-Discussions

[DanKellFla]

No, it's a cat.

[HeeBGBz]

Well, hello Felix! Time to stare mindlessly at spaghetti lines once again. Especially when they start leaning to the right. Felix seems to be pretty healthy.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[punkyg]

Felix is looking good today same with his little sis.

Oh did he move north since last night?

[Evil Jeremy]

If 94L does survive and pass into the Central Caribbean, a more northwesterly turn to threaten Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba is not out of the question.

If Jeff Masters is right, kudo's to him.

[cycloneye]

AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FELIX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.8 WEST OR ABOUT 75
MILES...120 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF GRENADA.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...FELIX WILL MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING AND WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR TO
THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS OF ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE FELIX LATER THIS MORNING

[HURAKAN]

"AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE FELIX LATER THIS MORNING"

Do they expect the plane to go back or will they send another plane?

[punkyg]

Guys do you believe that the models will continue to move north?

[jlauderdal]

If 94L does survive and pass into the Central Caribbean, a more northwesterly turn to threaten Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba is not out of the question.

If Jeff Masters is right, kudo's to him.

Ridge Ridge Ridge nuff said, its not coming to cuba or haiti

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[jlauderdal]

Guys do you believe that the models will continue to move north?

maybe a little but this thing is not busting through that ridge, all usa people I disagree with will have to wait for something else. max mayfield on channel 10 in miami is having a real easy time of it.

[caneman]

I think the one in the Central Atlantic will be one for us to worry about if it develops. Looks fairly good right now and is at a higher Latitude with a better chance of pattern change by the time or if it reaches the Carrib.

[wxman57]

I'd like to make a couple of points. First, remember what happened with an almost identical pattern during Dean two weeks ago. All the global models, with the exception of the European, kept trying to turn Dean to the right as it entered the Caribbean. That trend continued as Dean crossed the Caribbean. The GFDL even had Dean turning across western Cuba and heading toward southeast Louisiana for a while. All that time, the European kept saying Central America for landfall then west across the southern BoC.

So far, Felix has continued to track just north of due west, despite all the models trying to take Felix on a WNW track immediately. The models have been wrong. Compare Felix's track so far with model guidance from days ago. Felix is staying south of the model forecasts. So why believe the global models now? They've proven to have a right bias with both Dean and now Felix.

I'd keep a closer eye on the European. Here's its forecast for 7pm CDT Tuesday:

[HURAKAN]

I agree. There is no need to check your evacuation routes in Florida or start evacuating Texas. Félix will continue west, or north of due west, but not wnw or nw. So, if you feel some kind of rush, calm down because if you live in the states Félix is not going to get you. Look a little bit to the east to find a possible menace.

[cycloneye]

01/1145 UTC 12.3N 62.5W T3.0/3.0 FELIX -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[WmE]

That would translate into 45kts.

[CrazyC83]

No, it's a cat.

It's a male cat.

[KatDaddy]

I would be more concerned about the tropical wave midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. It should be in the E Carribean about the same time Felix is making landfall into Central America. It looks to be further N than Felix in the Caribbean. By the time it reaches the NW Caribbean the ridge may not be as strong. Something to watch over the next week.

[EyELeSs1]

reports from grenada obtained from the storm carib site reports gusts as high as 61knts and apparent 'sustained' winds near 45knts with gusts to 55knts

[HURAKAN]

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I would vote for hurricane in 24 hrs.