Invest 98L,Central Atlantic

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1231 UTC SAT SEP 1 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982007) 20070901 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070901 1200 070902 0000 070902 1200 070903 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.5N 36.0W 13.7N 38.3W 13.9N 40.6W 14.0N 43.0W
BAMD 13.5N 36.0W 13.8N 39.0W 13.9N 41.9W 14.0N 44.7W
BAMM 13.5N 36.0W 13.6N 38.2W 13.6N 40.6W 13.6N 42.8W
LBAR 13.5N 36.0W 13.6N 38.7W 13.8N 41.4W 14.1N 43.9W

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070903 1200 070904 1200 070905 1200 070906 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.1N 45.6W 14.8N 50.5W 15.4N 55.8W 15.8N 61.0W
BAMD 14.1N 47.4W 14.9N 52.7W 15.7N 58.1W 16.2N 63.7W
BAMM 13.4N 45.0W 13.4N 49.6W 13.5N 54.2W 13.7N 58.9W
LBAR 14.4N 46.6W 15.0N 51.6W 14.9N 55.9W 12.2N 58.2W

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.5N LONCUR = 36.0W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 13.7N LONM12 = 33.5W DIRM12 = 264DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 14.0N LONM24 = 31.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

Another invest pops.

[Derek Ortt]

not as bullish on this one as I am for Felix... and you can thank Felix for that

The outflow from Felix is streaming to the west and as the UH builds over Felix, a UL should build to its east. This may produce some shear to this invest

Still... some slow development is a possibility, but it's not a certainty

[punkyg]

Woooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooohoooooooooooooooo!
now lets talk about our baby Gabby/98L.

[Tropics Guy]

Another low tracker?, or will this be more of a concern for the northern islands since it is starting out at a higher latitude.

TG

[CrazyC83]

Didn't the Felix wave clear SAL out for it?

[punkyg]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/wv-l.jpg

She is looking good so far.

[windstorm99]

[Derek Ortt]

Didn't the Felix wave clear SAL out for it?

Only if the Saharan Desert was located where the Caribbean is located

[windstorm99]

[HURAKAN]

You may be looking @ Invest 98L.

My words were prophetic!!!

[canegrl04]

Seems everything is destined for Mexico or Central America this season

[boca]

Here in Florida were protected by the bubble of no trouble which is high pressure. If this pattern continues I won't have to use my shuttters at all this year. I think 98L will be a 10 yard line system too probably destined for Central America.

[Thunder44]

Seems everything is destined for Mexico or Central America this season

If it develops, it has a better chance of moving further north, since it already starting out much further north and east than Dean and Felix. Don't pay so much attention to the BAMM models in the long-range either. Wait for the globals to have a better handle on it.

[canegrl04]

Seems everything is destined for Mexico or Central America this season

If it develops, it has a better chance of moving further north, since it already starting out much further north and east than Dean and Felix. Don't pay so much attention to the BAMM models in the long-range either. Wait for the globals to have a better handle on it.

the BAMMs are probably the worst at tracking.We'll see in the coming days with the other models

[KatDaddy]

I believe this one has a better chance of making it into the GOM and becoming a possible threat to the US. The ridge better hold strong through the end of next weekend.

[Fego]

Is worth to know what the experts says but also what my eyes can see. Btw, there is not floater, still too far in the central Atlantic?

[windstorm99]

Any thoughts from promets wxman57 or derek on the pattern the next 7-10 days?

[x-y-no]

Well first thing I said when I looked at satellite this morning was "that's got to be an invest."

...

I'm not so convinced that Felix is going to negatively impact this ... there looks to me to be enough separation for that not to happen.

[Derek Ortt]

I would not be shocked to see a large UL form behind Felix, like we saw behind Dean

[punkyg]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

Right now as you can see in the picture i have. 98L ain't that organized
it actually has 3 balls of convection with it, but i expect this wave to develop slowly like felix.