Hurricane FELIX: Caribbean-Discussions

[crownweather]

I'd like to make a couple of points. First, remember what happened with an almost identical pattern during Dean two weeks ago. All the global models, with the exception of the European, kept trying to turn Dean to the right as it entered the Caribbean. That trend continued as Dean crossed the Caribbean. The GFDL even had Dean turning across western Cuba and heading toward southeast Louisiana for a while. All that time, the European kept saying Central America for landfall then west across the southern BoC.

So far, Felix has continued to track just north of due west, despite all the models trying to take Felix on a WNW track immediately. The models have been wrong. Compare Felix's track so far with model guidance from days ago. Felix is staying south of the model forecasts. So why believe the global models now? They've proven to have a right bias with both Dean and now Felix.

I'd keep a closer eye on the European. Here's its forecast for 7pm CDT Tuesday:

I pulled up a 120 hour forecast prog off of the ECMWF model and it looks like it places it over Belize. So, I guess I'm trying to picture how the EC model tracks it from Nicaragua in 96 hours to Belize in 120 hours??

[HURAKAN]

Looking stronger by the minute.

[njweather]

It seems Felix is entering a pocket of warmer waters (check the SST box):

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[hurricanetrack]

If what wxman57 says about the ECMWF is true, then we can expect little to no additional tropical cyclone activity until at least after September 10/11. It apparently nailed Dean and now will nail Felix. So could one presume that the Euro would be right then in showing a complete lack of TC activity aside from Felix for the next 240 hours? If so, it is going to be a long and boring month....aside from Felix of course.

[hurricanetrack]

One other note-

remember back when the 5-day position was over a certain location and everyone said "yaaay! It's over me, that means it won't hit me!!!"

Where did that go? Since when did 5-day forecasts have such low errors? I can plainly remember people saying that if they were in the 5-day landfall lat/lon pair that they were safe since the hurricane is never there at 5 days. We have come a long way in just a few short years.

[PhillyWX]

http://philadelphiaweather.blogspot.com ... bbean.html

My first discussion on Felix is above...there are two things to take from Felix at this point.

(1) The 15/80 'benchmark'. If Felix clears north of 15 latitude before passing west of 80 W it will probably not interact much with Nicaragua/Honduras assuming it stays on a WNW path. This would likely bring Felix to Cat 4 in the Western Carib, IMO, with a possible landfall near Belize City on Wednesday PM. If it fails to clear this benchmark it will likely interact with Honduras, weakening the storm if not bringing it completely inland.

(2) It likely is not a threat to the US given the presence of high pressure to the north and the deep layered steering flow it is in.

I think the biggest threats right now are from the Nicaragua/Honduras border north and west to Belize City.

As always, my discussion is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[miamicanes177]

last few frames look like a jog to the NW to me. I'm going with the Ukmet track on this one.

[HURAKAN]

[PhillyWX]

last few frames look like a jog to the NW to me. I'm going with the Ukmet track on this one.

The UKie initialized much farther to the north though than where the TS is located presently.

[Ixolib]

One other note-

remember back when the 5-day position was over a certain location and everyone said "yaaay! It's over me, that means it won't hit me!!!"

Where did that go? Since when did 5-day forecasts have such low errors? I can plainly remember people saying that if they were in the 5-day landfall lat/lon pair that they were safe since the hurricane is never there at 5 days. We have come a long way in just a few short years.

You are so right. Interestingly enough, if this trend in forecasting track and intensity continues, it will one day soon make weather forums like this obsolete simply because there will be no "second guessing" taking place. In the future, the track/intensity will be 100% from the get-go, negating any discussion otherwise.

[Derek Ortt]

as long as models depict major hurricanes as open waves... there is always going to be the need for human forecasters

[cycloneye]

Mark,another month has passed and the number jumps to 23,the consecutive months without a landfalling hurricane in the U.S. mainland.

[caneman]

Well there are at least 3 major models that take Felix on a NW course when near the BOC so I wouldn't say not a US threat yet, if I see them flatten out and get more consistant at end run that will be a different thing.

[HURAKAN]

More impressive by the minute:

[wxman57]

00Z 96hr Euro has a 1009.5mb closed low entering northern Nicaragua at 00Z Wed. (96 hrs). The 120hr has an open wave when I analyze down to 0.5mb extending SSW from Belize. If the low center was analyzed over central Belize at 120hrs, that's a track of 300 degrees from the 96hr point - across Honduras then back over water briefly. But if the low is analyzed over southern Belize, that's a track to 290 degrees from northern Honduras. Over land almost the whole way (crossing Honduras).

I'd like to make a couple of points. First, remember what happened with an almost identical pattern during Dean two weeks ago. All the global models, with the exception of the European, kept trying to turn Dean to the right as it entered the Caribbean. That trend continued as Dean crossed the Caribbean. The GFDL even had Dean turning across western Cuba and heading toward southeast Louisiana for a while. All that time, the European kept saying Central America for landfall then west across the southern BoC. So the EC at 96 hours has Felix moving at 290 deg for a bit then due west past southern Belize.

So far, Felix has continued to track just north of due west, despite all the models trying to take Felix on a WNW track immediately. The models have been wrong. Compare Felix's track so far with model guidance from days ago. Felix is staying south of the model forecasts. So why believe the global models now? They've proven to have a right bias with both Dean and now Felix.

I'd keep a closer eye on the European. Here's its forecast for 7pm CDT Tuesday:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/Felix15.gif

I pulled up a 120 hour forecast prog off of the ECMWF model and it looks like it places it over Belize. So, I guess I'm trying to picture how the EC model tracks it from Nicaragua in 96 hours to Belize in 120 hours??

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWFTROPATL_0z/f120.gif

[wxman57]

If what wxman57 says about the ECMWF is true, then we can expect little to no additional tropical cyclone activity until at least after September 10/11. It apparently nailed Dean and now will nail Felix. So could one presume that the Euro would be right then in showing a complete lack of TC activity aside from Felix for the next 240 hours? If so, it is going to be a long and boring month....aside from Felix of course.

Not a correct assumption. The European did well with Dean and is doing well with Felix, however, it's pressure forecast for Dean was almost 100mb too high. For Felix, it's forecasting a pressure of 1009mb at landfall in Central America. So you can't just look at the ECMWF's surface analysis and say it's not forecasting any development for 10 days. I think 98L could well develop, and I think we'll quite possibly see another storm develop north of the Bahamas by the middle of next week on the trailing end of a stationary front.

[Cookiely]

as long as models depict major hurricanes as open waves... there is always going to be the need for human forecasters

I certainly don't want a machine to be responsible for lives. Give me a human being any time. Thank you Derek for all your great information and time on the forum.

[ronjon]

One other note-

remember back when the 5-day position was over a certain location and everyone said "yaaay! It's over me, that means it won't hit me!!!"

Where did that go? Since when did 5-day forecasts have such low errors? I can plainly remember people saying that if they were in the 5-day landfall lat/lon pair that they were safe since the hurricane is never there at 5 days. We have come a long way in just a few short years.

You are so right. Interestingly enough, if this trend in forecasting track and intensity continues, it will one day soon make weather forums like this obsolete simply because there will be no "second guessing" taking place. In the future, the track/intensity will be 100% from the get-go, negating any discussion otherwise.

Don't get over confident on the 5 day track just because Dean's track was nailed. See my posts on the Felix global models thread. This is not to take anything away from the NHC track forecasts because they are the best. However, there is a reason why they put the disclaimer on the 4 & 5 day tracks due to an average error of 300+ miles. Storms that ride the bottom of ridges are the easiest to forecast. It's when the storms advance into the mid-latitudes (i.e. US) that tracks get more uncertain.

[HURAKAN]

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