Hurricane FELIX: Caribbean-Discussions

[caneman]

Indeed and Dean was a rarity to nail it that correctly that far out. I would be somewhat concerned with the NW track models are taking once near the BOC.

[hurricanebuoy]

Removed content.

[hial2]

as long as models depict major hurricanes as open waves... there is always going to be the need for human forecasters

I certainly don't want a machine to be responsible for lives. Give me a human being any time. Thank you Derek for all your great information and time on the forum.

Models are generated by computers...which are run by humans..and as long as they are run by humans,there will be a significant chance of error..
As the saying goes, "garbage in,garbage out"

[miamicanes177]

NHC track is now an outlier

[Ed Mahmoud]

How come no G-IV missions scheduled?

Maybe the ridge is so well established no need to sample environment and the 2 reliable models are trusted?

FELIX HAS SPED UP A LITTLE AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW
280/16. MUCH LIKE DEAN LAST MONTH...FELIX IS FORECAST BY NEARLY
ALL OF THE GUIDANCE TO MOVE IN ALMOST A STRAIGHT LINE ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN. THE MODELS ARE ALSO ARRANGED IN A SIMILAR MANNER AS
DURING MUCH OF DEAN...WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE GFS AND ECMWF TO THE SOUTH. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN SOLUTIONS GIVEN
THAT THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FELIX IS FORECAST TO BUILD
WESTWARD...SO THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH REASON FOR THE TRACK
OF FELIX TO BEND MUCH IF AT ALL TO THE NORTH.

[caneman]

As state before you have several models pointing towards South Texas at end run so just because Dean was nailed 6 - 7 days out, history says there is usually a few hundred mile margin of error so I prefer at this point to go with history and not a one strom Dean success this far out.

[Derek Ortt]

Felix is not a threat to the USA so no G-IV required

[caneman]

Felix is not a threat to the USA so no G-IV required

Hmm, this may be a copy and paste job later on. Unless of course you mean in just the short term.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Well, 98L should enter the Caribbean a couple of degrees further North than Felix, and it'll be another week later into Fall (not astronomical Fall, weather Fall), so all the people wanting a Gulf storm might finally get their wish.

But I trust the pros, who are trusting the models that best predicted Dean.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Felix is not a threat to the USA so no G-IV required

That was my first guess.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Getting stronger...


VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062007
A. 01/14:12:20Z
B. 12 deg 14 min N
063 deg 27 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 49 kt
E. 339 deg 010 nm
F. 068 deg 052 kt
G. 339 deg 009 nm
H. EXTRAP 1001 mb
I. 22 C/ 368 m
J. 25 C/ 375 m
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 1
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF306 0306A FELIX OB 03
MAX FL WIND 52 KT N QUAD 14:06:00 Z
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 56KT AT 14:21:00 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.

[Ed Mahmoud]

And, in 12 hours, gained a third of a degree latitude. Not much.

[Derek Ortt]

right now there is no threat to the USA

if the situation changes, of course there will be G-IV flights

[HURAKAN]

041
WTNT21 KNHC 011443
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FELIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
1500 UTC SAT SEP 01 2007

AT 8 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRENADA IS
DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM CUMANA TO PEDERNALES INCLUDING THE ISLAND OF
MARGARITA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 63.6W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 63.6W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 62.8W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 12.8N 66.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 13.4N 69.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.1N 72.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 14.8N 76.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...105NE 60SE 60SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.0N 82.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 75SE 75SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 17.0N 87.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 18.5N 91.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 63.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

[Aric Dunn]

Here is the radar we will need as Felix passes Aruba

BUT PLEASE DONT HIT RELOAD SO MUCH AS TOO CRASH THE SITE

http://www.weather.an/sat_img/radar.asp#

[Ed Mahmoud]

This won't be anywhere as popular as the 98L/possible TD #7/Gabrielle threads in a few days. That is an unoffically official prediction.

Unless 98L doesn't develop, of course.

[cycloneye]

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 17.0N 87.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

11 AM .They are now forecast a major.

[HurricaneHunter914]

They have it now at 65 mph! That was fast! I wonder what made them jump from 45 to 65?

[HURAKAN]

They have it now at 65 mph! That was fast! I wonder what made them jump from 45 to 65?

11AM Discussion:
IN FACT...AN AIR FORCE PLANE
JUST MADE IT TO THE CENTER AND REPORTED FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 69
KT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 55 KT AT THE SURFACE...AND 55 KT WILL
BE USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.

[caneman]

17 and 87 points towards Belize this is further North than previous and further North than Derek and WXMAN believed it would be at and if it end up with a NW motion at end run like some models procliam the Us or South Texas isn't out of woods.