Hurricane FELIX: Global & BAM Models

[Derek Ortt]

what's different Ron Jon, is that the northern models are so badly initialized and their solutions do not exactly make dynamic sense, that they should be ignored

Felix is not going to open up into a wave, it likely will become a major hurricane and kill very many though

[PhillyWX]

again, the models indicating a northward track are the ones carrying Felix as an open wave. This is likely to become a major hurricane, chuck those models down the toilet...

Unfortunately, the likely track means likely death and destruction

Honduras/Belize/Nicaragua are under the gun, IMO. I don't buy the north trend on the other models myself. Given the GFS and EURO doing well with this storm the last time a lot of weight has to be thrown in that direction at this point, IMO.

[Portastorm]

NWSFOs in Texas are all saying that the ridge builds in strong here in Texas by the middle of next week. The troughiness we have over the state now is progged to lift northeast out of the state by Tues/Wed with a building ridge. That would confirm what the Euro and GFS are suggesting, along with NHC.

[Derek Ortt]

the Canadian also should be strongly considered with Felix as it actually has a real TC... it is northern Nicaragua

[cycloneye]

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE FELIX (AL062007) 20070901 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070901 1200 070902 0000 070902 1200 070903 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.3N 62.8W 13.0N 65.8W 13.9N 69.0W 15.0N 72.2W
BAMD 12.3N 62.8W 13.0N 65.8W 13.9N 69.0W 14.7N 72.2W
BAMM 12.3N 62.8W 13.0N 66.2W 13.8N 69.8W 14.6N 73.3W
LBAR 12.3N 62.8W 12.9N 66.2W 13.8N 69.8W 14.6N 73.4W
SHIP 45KTS 56KTS 66KTS 73KTS
DSHP 45KTS 56KTS 66KTS 73KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070903 1200 070904 1200 070905 1200 070906 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.0N 75.5W 17.7N 81.2W 19.3N 85.7W 21.3N 89.8W
BAMD 15.5N 75.3W 17.1N 80.4W 18.9N 83.9W 20.9N 86.7W
BAMM 15.4N 76.9W 16.6N 82.7W 17.9N 87.3W 19.9N 91.2W
LBAR 15.4N 77.0W 16.3N 83.1W 16.9N 88.0W .0N .0W
SHIP 81KTS 92KTS 96KTS 93KTS
DSHP 81KTS 92KTS 96KTS 37KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.3N LONCUR = 62.8W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 11.9N LONM12 = 59.5W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 11.4N LONM24 = 56.7W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 140NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 40NM RD34SE = 20NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 40NM

[ronjon]

I understand what you are saying Derek & wxman57 -and if Felix is a powerful hurricane it will tend to pump up the ridge north of it like Dean. Just prefer to be a little cautious given that the average error in 5 day forecasts is 350 miles and we have a group of models split from others.

[Janie2006]

Also, if the ridging continues to develop for the western and central GC as forecasted, then I see no reason for deviation from the current track. Another trough approaches toward the end of the next week, but that's far too late to affect Felix's path. Unfortuantely I have to agree with Derek: signs point toward a landfall where people are most vulnerable....Nicaragua and possible a bit further north along the Central American coast.

[tailgater]

the Canadian also should be strongly considered with Felix as it actually has a real TC... it is northern Nicaragua

That the CMC is saying Nic should ease the minds of the people of Niaragua. J/J Euro is the one to watch IMHO!

[Meso]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation
06z HWRF


Thought I may as well post these models here too

[Ed Mahmoud]

The Euro and GFS did best w/ Dean, and, if the system doesn't get up near 20ºN, it doesn't look to feel the trough over Texas, and neither shows them ever getting that far North.


If and only if the 2 more reliable models show a track far enough North to feel the Texas trough, would I (as a dedicated amateur) worry about the US Gulf Coast.

In the real world, looking at the floater, Felix has gained almost no latitude since last night.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well considering the fact that the model consensus usually is the most accurate thing to look at...I think a more northward track is very possible. Obviously the models must be seeing SOMETHING. Heck, even the GFS turns the storm more northward once it reaches the BOC. For now I am still not worried, but I am definitely paying closer attention. I do not like this new trend one bit!

BTW..

Every single model (on this chart) gives Felix a more northward tilt by the end of their runs...even the southern ones:

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_06.gif

[Ed Mahmoud]

This won't be anywhere as popular as the 98L/possible TD #7/Gabrielle threads in a few days. That is an unoffically official prediction.

Unless 98L doesn't develop, of course.

[Extremeweatherguy]

From the latest NHC disco..

Felix has been moving basically to west for the past 6-12 hours and
my initial motion estimate is 270/16. A strong ridge is forecast
to steer the storm a little north of due westward for the next few
days. Track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario. Beyond
3 days...there is a question of how much ridging will be present in
the Gulf of Mexico. A few models have enough of a weakness in the
ridge to force a west-northwest or northwest motion near the end of
the period. However...the reliable GFS/ECMWF are keeping a strong
ridge. The official forecast is a little south of the
previous one due to the westward motion early on...but then
is very close to the previous forecast by the end of the period.

According to the NHC, it is still up in the air beyond day 3.

[Extremeweatherguy]

If it makes landfall as far south as Joan did I would be astonished. I don't think any of the models show something like that. However, I guess anything is possible in the tropical world...

[ronjon]

Alot of eggs being placed in the Euro basket. I think the PROs are going by what we call persistence - similar set up to Dean, Euro performed well with Dean, so Felix must follow suit. Nothing wrong with that. I just remember how the Euro early on placed DEAN off the SE coast of FL, and the GFDL keep swinging it to TX/La. I remember that once we were within 4-5 days - the GFDL was the only outlier going north. Everything else was tightly clustered on the Yuc. This time, at 4-5 days out, we have a spread from Nic to the Yuc channel for Felix. The BAM Deep has moved consistently north over the last 3-4 runs. Still a question mark how the western edge of this ridge will be oriented in 4-5 days.

[skysummit]

The 12z GFS has begun rolling out if anyone wants to post it.

000 Hours

[ronjon]

Well, for what it's worth here is the 12Z NAM. Please, before the trashing me starts - I realize the NAM is not a good tropical model. But let's add it to the mix. It's track is very similar to the FSU MM5 for Felix.

[cycloneye]

42 hours

[cycloneye]

60 hours

Just east of the NE corner of Nicaragua.

[Buck]

Looks like a lot of the models are starting to trend more north... Most are calling for a turn to the north... I guess the question is how far west will it start to turn north?