Hurricane FELIX: Caribbean-Discussions

[skysummit]

Definitely the U.S. is not in the clear. I can't understand why some on here are making such inaccurate statements.

[Sanibel]

Very low track. Belize should go to preparation mode.

[caneman]

sure seems possible, a significant jump in winds was just found

[HURAKAN]

If I remember correctly there was a storm that a while back intensified rapidly in the ECAR. I can't remember its name .... ah ... Dean!!!

[Aric Dunn]

Here is the radar we will need as Felix passes Aruba

BUT PLEASE DONT HIT RELOAD SO MUCH AS TOO CRASH THE SITE

http://www.weather.an/sat_img/radar.asp#

Actually felix should be coming into radar range later this afternoon .. and if present strengthening continues we may have a fastly intensifying hurricane .. So radar is going to be interesting and the Aruba radar is a lot better quality than the Guadeloupe radar that we had for dean.

[jlauderdal]

Definitely the U.S. is not in the clear. I can't understand why some on here are making such inaccurate statements.

checkout that ridge, the chance of the usa getting hit is next to nil.

[caneman]

Will it become a Cat. 4?

I agree. The experts and others should know better not to rely so heavily on one or two models success with just one storm. Bank on history with a several hundred mile track error as likely. This belief isn't good. Saw one poster actually state that maybe we're near 100% forecast accuracy. Come on as Derek says even a blind squirrel finds an acorn once and awhile well so too can be said for a model nailing something accurately 5-7 days out.

[Aric Dunn]

Definitely the U.S. is not in the clear. I can't understand why some on here are making such inaccurate statements.

checkout that ridge, the chance of the usa getting hit is next to nil.

for all in here !!!!! THINGS CAN CHANGE VERY FAST AND WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS STILL QUITE POSSIBLE

and is more probable since there is still a Stalled front that has been sagging ever so slowly south and is now over southern GA and the Northern gulf

[caneman]

Definitely the U.S. is not in the clear. I can't understand why some on here are making such inaccurate statements.

checkout that ridge, the chance of the usa getting hit is next to nil.

you trust a foreacasted ridges strength comepletely in the 5-7 days range?

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[Sanibel]

The ridge is so obviously strong that it has flattened Felix synoptically into that "half" shape.

[wxman57]

Time for a trip down memory lane...

Let's look back at model guidance for Dean as it was in the eastern Caribbean between 14N-15N. Note that Dean moved inland into the Yucatan near northern Belize, south of all model guidance:



Now let's take a look at the global and hurricane models for Felix. I've removed the BAM models, as they shouldn't be used in situations like this, and I removed models like LBAR and the extrapolated track and Climo models. What we get is the GFDL, GFS, and European forecasting landfall between northern Nicaragua and Belize then westward, probably passing south of the Bay of Campeche. The NOGAPS and interpolated HWRF take Felix NW at the end. The CONU (consensus model goes right in between the NOGAPS and GFS, as it simply adds the lat/lon values and divides by the number of models used. It's always in the middle.

While I'll certainly keep a close eye on Felix for any signs of a WNW movement, I can see that Felix is tracking south of all model guidance over the past 2-3 days so I'm not inclined to believe these forecasts of a turn toward the NW Yucatan. I'll stay south of most model guidance with my track, closer to the ECMWF.

[Derek Ortt]

the NHC track is almost the same as the track I issued... only real difference is that it is weaker

[caneman]

WXMAN well stated, however, 1 storm doesn't make a trend and 1 models success doesn't mean they'll finish the year nailing everything. 5+ days out still needs to be watched.

[miamicanes177]

I'll stay south of most model guidance with my track, closer to the ECMWF.

Well according to Derek Ortt the ECMWF is not a reliable tropical model.

[wxman57]

the NHC track is almost the same as the track I issued... only real difference is that it is weaker

My track is a bit south of of NHC, particularly the last 36 hours (about a degree south at 120hrs). I don't buy that little hook at the end.

[Derek Ortt]

Aruba may need to consider a Hurricane Warning soon

[caneman]

The Euro supposedly only does well 3-5 days. If that is correct than perhaps the other models know a little something more about a NW turn at 5 days.

[Derek Ortt]

I also do not buy a 280 heading that NHC has... they may be a bit too far north of the ABC Islands

[wxman57]

Aruba may need to consider a Hurricane Warning soon

Probably won't have any hurricane-force winds on its south side as it passes 60-90 miles north of Aruba, though, even if it did reach hurricane strength in 24 hours. As it stands now, Aruba is outside the TS force wind projections, but I wouldn't rule out the possibility of 40mph sustained wind there.