Invest 98L,Central Atlantic

[Hurricaneman]

I think the track of this invest will be determined by if the Joe Bastardi storm comes to fruition or not, if the JB storm develops, 98L goes more to the north, and Vise Versa

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[Ed Mahmoud]

I hope it will become a Category 4 Gabrielle

I will resist the strong temptation to blast and lecture here
Suffice to say, I hope you are wrong.

This looks like a real threat to the US, either the GOMEX or the East Coast, although far too soon to say for sure.


Except for the flooding because summer has been so wet, I wouldn't mind a tropical storm hitting SE Texas for a little excitement, but the idea of hoping for a Cat 4, that will almost certainly kill people and destroy their homes, is beyond stupid.

Good work resisting the strong temptation. But I suspect a vigorous reponse or series of responses is what was expected, so I will also not say anything more.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looks like 98L is starting to win the battle against shear, I can see outflow starting to develop to the West

[Buck]

i just hope it will become a fishie... i am a big fan of fishies....

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Fabian was NOT a fish. It was Bermuda's most damaging hurricane in it's history.

[wxman57]

Take a look at this McIDAS shot of 98L and you can see that the low pressure center is located east of the convection, between 13N-14N and along about 36.5-37W. NHC initialized it at 13.5N/36W at 12Z. Looks like a good initialization. I do agree it's something to keep an eye on. For the record, the European has it skirting the NE Caribbean in 4 days, though it's difficult to detect unless I do a 0.25 mb analysis and just watch the 500mb inverted trof moving along. Oh, and the European moves something toward the SE U.S. Coast by next Friday with high pressure blocking it to the north.

I agree with JB on the potential for TS development off the SE U.S. Coast between the 3rd-6th of the month. Nothing there now, but there are a number of indicators that a low will form on a stalled front next week in that area. Maybe this is what the ECMWF sees and not 98L threatening the SE U.S. late next week?

[gerrit]

what do the models say about 98L? will it become a Category 4?

I hope it will become a Category 4 Gabrielle

What do you have with cat. 4?

And uhm.. what is a Category 4 Gabrielle?

I personally hope this one does not develop because of its potential track (northern islands, east coast USA)..

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looks like 98L is starting to win the battle against shear, I can see outflow starting to develop to the West

Maybe I spoke too soon, closeup visible from NRL site shows all the storms West of the low cloud swirl(s).

[fci]

Yes, the higher latitude and ridge in place alarms me much more than Dean did or Felix does.

Plus the Pros hinting at concern combine to make me more nervous.

[Brent]

Looks interesting and like it's on it's way, definitely think it will be north of Dean/Felix's track.

[storms in NC]

Looks interesting and like it's on it's way, definitely think it will be north of Dean/Felix's track.

I think this will be more of a east coast from middle of Fla up. JIMO

[Zardoz]

This was probably one of those dissipated waves that came off Africa at a high latitude.

Yep, this one, in fact:

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

FWIW, a psychic that I know did predict that
the storm termed "Gabrielle and Felix" Would both be
significant storms.

This same psychic friend also was only one storm off
in predicting charley 04 and katrina 05. I'm not
taking what he says as guarenteed, but with his
accurate record, this is something I will watch.

[CourierPR]

Yes, the higher latitude and ridge in place alarms me much more than Dean did or Felix does.

Plus the Pros hinting at concern combine to make me more nervous.

I agree because this one seems likely to track into the northern Leewards or just to the north and then all eyes on the US east coast will be watching.

[hurricanetrack]

It is really interesting to watch these develop this season even though the GFS and other powerhouse globals don't "see" them. Yet, in some cases, the Canadian has over done quite a few. As of now, the 12Z GFS just evaporates this 98L in to nothingness in about 4 days. I am a big fan of watching the global models but I guess they really aren't that good at sniffing out cyclogenesis afterall. And as Derek said in a previous post, Dean was as good as it gets for the globals to sniff out- like "a blind squirrel finding a nut".

So, we will just wait and see what 98L does. Who knows, they might all track west like lemmings off a cliff.....

[fci]

FWIW, a psychic that I know did predict that
the storm termed "Gabrielle and Felix" Would both be
significant storms.

This same psychic friend also was only one storm off
in predicting charley 04 and katrina 05. I'm not
taking what he says as guarenteed, but with his
accurate record, this is something I will watch.

Can the psychic predict football games and point spreads too???

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

FWIW, a psychic that I know did predict that
the storm termed "Gabrielle and Felix" Would both be
significant storms.

This same psychic friend also was only one storm off
in predicting charley 04 and katrina 05. I'm not
taking what he says as guarenteed, but with his
accurate record, this is something I will watch.

Can the psychic predict football games and point spreads too???

Probably not...he says he sees things in advance that are likely to be
significant events in some way. It's wierd. In 2004 of May he told
me to watch "Charley" this year and by August there was cat 4 charley.
In 2005 he said "Katrina" would be the monster...and he told me that early
in 2005 like march 2005. When that came true I was shocked as heck.

And then, he this year said that either Felix or Gabrielle would be a serious
storm event.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

98L does look like it could become a tropical depression
in the next 2-3 days, conditions will allow with low
shear and warm water.

[bvigal]

Yes, have been watching this for a few days... there was another thread on it. It just survived a few days of strong SAL. Already 13.5N, that is a worry to our neighborhood.

[fci]

Yes, have been watching this for a few days... there was another thread on it. It just survived a few days of strong SAL. Already 13.5N, that is a worry to our neighborhood.

Where is your neightborhood?
The islands??

[bvigal]

Yes, the BVI - British Virgin Islands.

And THANKS, fci! Your question made me notice that I didn't have it listed in my profile, so have now added it.

Cheers!
Gloria