Hurricane FELIX: Global & BAM Models

[vaffie]

At 30 hours, the 12Z GFS has almost lost the surface representation of it completely north of Caracas, Venezuela--regains it later. See: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_030l.gif

The 500 mb representation still has it clearly, and at 36 hours, it is a fair bit north of the 6Z model 42 hour spot.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_036l.gif

Compare to older 6Z: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_042l.gif

[cycloneye]

72 hours

Just offshore the NE corner of Nicaragua.

[vaffie]

6Z 78 hours: hitting the Honduras/Nicaragua border.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_078l.gif

Now:
12Z 72 hours: north of Honduras.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072l.gif

[Thunder44]

Looks like a lot of the models are starting to trend more north... Most are calling for a turn to the north... I guess the question is how far west will it start to turn north?

The models that have the "north trend" are generally unreliable models in the tropics. And those same models are affecting the CONU which doesn't include the ECMWF. The 6z GFDL shift it's track further south. As long as the more reliable GFS and ECMWF remain united in a more southern path, the NHC will probably not shift their forecast track. The ECMWF is better long-range forecast than all of them model in my opinion.

[cycloneye]

84 hours

I dont see big changes to this 12z GFS.Almost same track as the past runs.Now at 84 hours is east of Belize.

[cycloneye]

96 hours

Just east of the Belize Mexico (Yucatan) border.Sounds famliar that position.

[vaffie]

Agree. track not changed much. But the 12Z model is nevertheless showing a weaker high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico compared to previous runs at 84 hours. This is probably what the other global models are seeing too.

See the 96hour 12Z vs the 102 6Z and look at the size of the black 588mb line in the Gulf--it is definitely smaller--especially on the southern side--indication of a weaker westward steering pattern as it enters the Gulf compared to the previous run. If the trend continues over the next few runs of having a weaker high in the Gulf, it will track further north than predicted right now.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_096l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_102l.gif

[cycloneye]

108 hours

Same place it has made landfall (Belize,Mexico (Yucatan) border as the past 00z,6z runs.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks like a lot of the models are starting to trend more north... Most are calling for a turn to the north... I guess the question is how far west will it start to turn north?

The models that have the "north trend" are generally unreliable models in the tropics. And those same models are affecting the CONU which doesn't include the ECMWF. The 6z GFDL shift it's track further south. As long as the more reliable GFS and ECMWF remain united in a more southern path, the NHC will probably not shift their forecast track. The ECMWF is better long-range forecast than all of them model in my opinion.

unreliable models? I don't think so. According to this article ( http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/models.asp ), some of the best tropical models are the GFDL, GFS, UKMET, HWRF and NOGAPS. Most of those models are currently showing a more northward track with Felix, and all of them show some kind of WNW or NW bend toward the end of their runs. That is pretty impressive, IMO, and we certainly should not write all of those models off as being wrong.

BTW: According to the same article, the BAM models ended up doing the best in the 3-5 day range during the 2005 season. So while they might not be the best models, they also are not quite the "junk" that some make them out to be.

[vaffie]

If you compare the 108hour with the 120 hour, as it passes through Belize and Mexico, it's tracking northwest now but then it seems to track back to the west in the Bay of Campeche.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_108l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_120l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_138l.gif

[southerngale]

Would y'all please upload the http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_06.gif model maps before posting? Many members can't view that site for some reason, and we'd appreciate it.

Also, it's just better for them to be uploaded before posting anyway, then you can look back and quickly see what they were before the new ones came out.

You can use Imageshack or a place like that. Thanks!

[Brent]

Would y'all please upload the http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_06.gif model maps before posting? Many members can't view that site for some reason, and we'd appreciate it.

Also, it's just better for them to be uploaded before posting anyway, then you can look back and quickly see what they were before the new ones came out.

You can use Imageshack or a place like that. Thanks!

[HouTXmetro]

Which one of those is the GFS?

[Thunder44]

Which one of those is the GFS?

I believe it's the "AVNO".

[vaffie]

Which one of those is the GFS?

Light blue--AVNO.

[Berwick Bay]

The models are giving you a much more distinctive NW flavor into the GOM than what turned out to be Dean's track. We are two to three weeks later in the season, with a much more questionable ridge. I look for a track across the central to northern Yucatan into the GOM. A slowing across the Yucatan and perhaps very slow upon entering the GOM. Rebuilding strength in the GOM with an eroding ridge to the north should bring about a NW to N move in the GOM. So I'm definitely concerned for the Texas AND La. Coastal areas.

[vaffie]

12Z UKMET model out.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... s/storm_06

Hits Mexico just north of Belize, heading generally northwest towards just south of the Texas-Mexico border.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Though central america has the greatest threat
Texas should watch it just in case a trough over
the western gulf attempts to pull this northward
once in the BOC/GOM.

[Stratosphere747]

Meh..

Models look off already. Felix is moving along basically due W.

Nicaragua and Honduras could still be the LF area.

[Extremeweatherguy]

FWIW, the UKMET is actually showing Felix taking a nearly due west motion in the short term. It might actually have a pretty good handle on this system.