Hurricane FELIX: Caribbean-Discussions

[chris_fit]

Just an observation, Felix is tracking to miss the next forecast point to the south by a fairly large margin, per the vis. satellite.

[Aric Dunn]

Seriously People ..... one thing the models are in a agreement on besides the WNW motion !! is...
and that is a BEND TO THE RIGHT... all of them!! http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_06.gif
beside maybe the euro
the only difference is WHEN AND WHERE...
now from experience .. when and where is ALWAYS THE question will the bend start sooner or later and will we have any more WNW'erly motion along its path before that happens..

So anyone saying that it wont turn more NW or it will .. is flat out at best making a educated guess !! and until something is a little more noticeable in the synoptics than i lean towards waiting another day before making any long term forecast and just stick to a series of short term forecasts.

but have fun

[skysummit]

Definitely the U.S. is not in the clear. I can't understand why some on here are making such inaccurate statements.

checkout that ridge, the chance of the usa getting hit is next to nil.

you trust a foreacasted ridges strength comepletely in the 5-7 days range?

I don't care what anyone says. You should stay with the NHC. That's why they are who they are. If they say there are questions in the long term, you should pay attention and not be sold on this southerly track that SO MANY are absolutely positive of.

The National Hurricane Center....they are the ones who make the official forecasts. Why not listen?

[Derek Ortt]

it needs to move more northerly soon to pass 60-90 miles north of Aruba.

it is about 310 miles east of Curaco and moving due west

I am thinking it should pass closer to the 30-50 miles range north of the islands... but I'd like to see this moving north

[Sanibel]

Doesn't look any more than 273-74*


Aric: Don't look at what the models are doing - look at what the storm is doing! It is south.

[Aric Dunn]

Doesn't look any more than 273-74*


Aric: Don't look at what the models are doing - look at what the storm is doing! It is south.

well yeah.. thats why i said im going to stick with making a serious of short term forecast .. until something becomes more evident..

I remember a certain storm called Ivan that was taking a very similar path as of right now !!!!

[gatorcane]

yep folks as I keep saying we cannot count on that ridge to hold strong for 5-7 days in September...

the NHC is already introducing the possibility of a turn...

[gatorcane]

and lookie what is behind Felix...another possible threat to the U.S.

Should Felix miss, you would think one of these is going to threaten...

[skysummit]

Gator...that's what worries me. Sure this is a very strong ridge and will probably extend west with Felix...at least to some degree, but that ridge won't save the U.S. all season long. Especially if we have a busy 2nd half of the season which is looking more and more likely right now.

[Ed Mahmoud]

and lookie what is behind Felix...another possible threat to the U.S.

Should Felix miss, you would think one of these is going to threaten...

That is what I said a few pages back. 98L Future TD #7/Gabrielle looks very good this morning, and is already well North of the Dean/Felix paths.

I guess I'll open a window for the 98L thread. If I were in Puerto Rico, the Bahamas and Florida, I'd be uneasy.

[miamicanes177]

Wunderground blogger Jeff Masters is not backing off of his original theory...
Jeff Masters states:

"If Felix does stay far enough north to make it into the Western Caribbean on Tuesday and Wednesday, there is a trough of low pressure forecast to swing north of the region that could turn Felix on a more northwesterly track into the Gulf of Mexico. The models are split on this, and we'll have to wait and see. Those of you planning on being in Cancun or Cozumel on Wednesday should pay close attention to Felix."

[wxman57]

it needs to move more northerly soon to pass 60-90 miles north of Aruba.

it is about 310 miles east of Curaco and moving due west

I am thinking it should pass closer to the 30-50 miles range north of the islands... but I'd like to see this moving north

By the way, I'm talking statute miles not nautical miles, just to be clear. Probably closer to 60 sm. than 90, though. That would be south of all model guidance, still. I think our track and NHC's track may be too far north at the end. Wouldn't surprise me if Felix tracks into central Nicaragua. We just need to be alert for any sign that Felix is tracking with or north of the model guidance the next few days. Just observe what Felix is doing, not what the models are saying (not to you, Derek).

[Sanibel]

This storm is obviously south and looks like it will have trouble clearing Nicaragua at this point.

It almost looks due west.

[Ed Mahmoud]

This storm is obviously south and looks like it will have trouble clearing Nicaragua at this point.

It almost looks due west.

It is due West if you look at the latitude the last 12 hours. A third of a degree of North movement.

[Aric Dunn]

we should have an eye starting to show up towards evening ..... if present intensification continues

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

[Brent]

and lookie what is behind Felix...another possible threat to the U.S.

Should Felix miss, you would think one of these is going to threaten...

Oh I totally agree... I'm feeling pretty confident Felix will not threaten the U.S., but 98L concerns me and there will probably be others behind that one(we have all of September to go!)

Anyway... it really strengthened quite a bit in the last several hours.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I know normally the RF quad is the strongest, but most of the heaviest storms look South of the center, so a near miss to the North of the ABC islands might still be pretty eventful.

My family vacationd twice in Curacoa when I was a kid. That is almost a desert island, cactus and lizards. I don't think they get too much tropical cyclone rain on a regular basis.

[Berwick Bay]

I posted my long range prediction on another thread, but I will jump into the fray here to say that we had better prepare for a more northerly component with this storm. We don't have the massive Bermuda High expanding west with this storm like Dean. In this case, I think that climo has to be considered. A gradual WNW to NW turn with an approach to the Yucatan along with a slowing in forward speed. An entrance into the Southern Gulf would seem to be in order, with a possible distinct motion to the NW or even N there after a period of very slow motion just off the Yucatan in the Gulf.

[Nimbus]

Felix is still near the back of an anticyclone so short term say 24 or 48 hours we could even see him move a little south of the forecast track.

[Berwick Bay]

Felix is still near the back of an anticyclone so short term say 24 or 48 hours we could even see him move a little south of the forecast track.

Yes Nimbus. And that w move in the short term really has little to do with what the long term track will be. Felix is feeling the High to the north which is at its strongest now. As Felix moves west the High will begin to relent some allowing for a WNW move toward what I think will be the Yucatan Penninsula. Also I don't look for the High to spread west with near the intensity of the one which was north of Dean. So I think that Felix will enter the Gulf and we will be faced with an eroding ridge in the western Gulf allowing for a NW to N motion in the Gulf.