Hurricane FELIX: Global & BAM Models

[Extremeweatherguy]

Latest run of the GFDL has shifted north a good bit. You can see the run here...

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/imag ... _model.gif

It is the blue model.

It shows a landfall on the Belize/Mexican Yucatan border followed by a NW track into the BOC.


(The earlier, 6z, run took the storm into south/central Belize)

[cycloneye]

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM FELIX 06L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 1

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 12.3 63.0 280./15.9
6 12.8 64.6 288./16.4
12 13.1 66.1 282./15.1
18 13.5 68.1 280./20.4
24 14.3 70.0 294./20.1
30 14.8 71.9 284./18.4
36 15.2 73.7 284./18.2
42 15.3 75.5 273./17.7
48 15.6 77.1 280./15.5
54 15.8 78.9 277./17.3
60 15.8 80.3 269./13.8
66 15.8 81.6 269./12.5
72 16.0 82.9 279./12.0
78 16.2 84.0 284./10.9
84 16.2 84.7 270./ 7.5
90 16.6 85.5 293./ 8.0
96 17.0 86.4 297./ 9.5
102 17.5 87.1 306./ 8.8
108 18.3 88.1 310./11.8
114 18.9 89.3 295./13.0
120 19.5 90.5 298./13.0
126 20.2 91.5 303./11.1


12z GFDL,A little north of last run in Yucatan.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

It travels NW in the BOC on GFDL, Texans do not write this off.
And Mexico should watch Very Closely.

[Stratosphere747]

Look at the headings of the GFDL. Better start showing some lift before taking this model into account.

[Brent]

Not saying it's wrong here, but the GFDL was an extreme outlier during Dean. I'm going to wait and see if other models trend north before becoming overly concerned. That being said, can't rule anything out since it's a week away.

[vaffie]

Look at the headings of the GFDL. Better start showing some lift before taking this model into account.

It doesn't shift northwestward until it reaches 85 west.

[Stratosphere747]

Look at the headings of the GFDL. Better start showing some lift before taking this model into account.

It doesn't shift northwestward until it reaches 85 west.

I agree, but if you look at the 6hr and 24hr heading.....

It could very well blend together by the time it hits 85W, otherwise it really needs to start gaining some more latitude soon to be given viability.

[HouTXmetro]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_06.gif

How can you view the various times on this particular site's models? I would like to do a comparison but I can't seem to find the actual page within the site.

[vaffie]

Look at the headings of the GFDL. Better start showing some lift before taking this model into account.

It doesn't shift northwestward until it reaches 85 west.

I agree, but if you look at the 6hr and 24hr heading.....

It could very well blend together by the time it hits 85W, otherwise it really needs to start gaining some more latitude soon to be given viability.

True, but the GFDL also has it heading due west for a while--which may never happen either, so at the end of the day, even if it doesn't in the short run go that far north, it may very well end up in the same spot as the GFDL is predicting.

[cycloneye]

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 01.09.2007



TROPICAL STORM FELIX ANALYSED POSITION : 12.3N 62.8W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062007



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 01.09.2007 12.3N 62.8W WEAK

00UTC 02.09.2007 12.5N 66.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 02.09.2007 13.7N 68.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 03.09.2007 14.4N 72.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 03.09.2007 14.8N 76.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 04.09.2007 15.9N 79.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 04.09.2007 16.6N 82.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 05.09.2007 17.1N 84.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 05.09.2007 17.8N 86.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 06.09.2007 19.0N 88.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 06.09.2007 20.1N 90.3W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY

00UTC 07.09.2007 22.0N 92.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 07.09.2007 23.1N 94.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12z UKMET,Belize.

[jaxfladude]

[Evil Jeremy]

18z BAMs are now out. They are now in line with the NHC forecast.

[Derek Ortt]

the models refuse to have felix at its correct intensity and are not properly steering this

[Scorpion]

Yet again the models are out to lunch.

[ronjon]

I noticed on the 12Z GFDL that it slows the cyclone down to 8 knots from hr 84 through 102. This is where it also changes its heading from roughly 270 to 300 deg. Rounding the SW edge of the ridge?

[ronjon]

Yet again the models are out to lunch.

Ah, unless you have a crystal ball we don' know that yet.

[cycloneye]

011802
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1802 UTC SAT SEP 1 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE FELIX (AL062007) 20070901 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070901 1800 070902 0600 070902 1800 070903 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.5N 64.5W 13.2N 67.6W 14.4N 70.9W 15.4N 74.0W
BAMD 12.5N 64.5W 13.2N 68.1W 14.0N 71.9W 14.7N 75.6W
BAMM 12.5N 64.5W 13.3N 68.1W 14.3N 71.8W 15.1N 75.5W
LBAR 12.5N 64.5W 13.0N 67.8W 14.0N 71.4W 14.9N 75.1W
SHIP 60KTS 75KTS 84KTS 93KTS
DSHP 60KTS 75KTS 84KTS 93KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070903 1800 070904 1800 070905 1800 070906 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.4N 77.1W 17.7N 82.5W 19.3N 86.9W 21.5N 90.8W
BAMD 15.2N 79.0W 15.6N 84.5W 16.4N 89.0W 17.4N 92.6W
BAMM 15.8N 78.9W 16.4N 84.5W 17.1N 89.0W 18.5N 92.8W
LBAR 15.7N 78.4W 17.1N 84.1W 17.7N 88.5W .0N .0W
SHIP 100KTS 108KTS 109KTS 106KTS
DSHP 100KTS 108KTS 109KTS 45KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.5N LONCUR = 64.5W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 12.1N LONM12 = 61.2W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 11.6N LONM24 = 57.9W
WNDCUR = 60KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 999MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 40NM RD34NW = 100NM

$$
18:00z run of the BAM Models.

[miamicanes177]

NOGAPS, one of the most reliable computer models in the world, says Felix is bound for the Central GOM

[cycloneye]

Now what is left of the 12z runs is the EURO that has been talked so much.Anyone has it already?

[Berwick Bay]

Yes I think the Nogaps is not far off, perhaps a little north. I don't see this storm as all that complicated really. I think basic climo tells a W to WNW track in the Carib with a NW across the Yucatan and into the Bay of Campeche-South Central GOM. At that point a slow forward speed with a turn to the NNW most likely caused by eroding ridge. Look for landfall along stretch from mid-Texas east to central La.