Hurricane FELIX: Global & BAM Models

[wxmann_91]

The EURO looks further north now too. Wasn't it showing a direct hit on Nicaragua earlier? Now it has the storm moving north toward Belize.

It's not further north. It's been showing a Belize landfall for several runs now.

The GFS and Euro have consistently concurred, so I'm banking on a Belize hit attm.

[ROCK]

Man, I take 6 hours off from watching this and the models are sniffing at a more right track...sheesh, I need to tell the wife that watching the storm is more important than shopping for clothes...

Seriously though a very interesting set-up is involving here since last night. I was about to buy into WX57 and his Euro track in Nig, but after today I not to sure I am jumping on that wagon just yet.....better handle on track by tomorrow for sure.....Wish these models would intialize intensity from the beggining though....

[southerngale]

Brent uploaded the sfwmd map earlier (thanks, again), but I've seen the map posted without being uploaded several times since. I realize it's a lot to ask as it takes a couple of extra minutes, but, we'd appreciate it.

And for anyone who does, thanks in advance.

Would y'all please upload the http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_06.gif model maps before posting? Many members can't view that site for some reason, and we'd appreciate it.

Also, it's just better for them to be uploaded before posting anyway, then you can look back and quickly see what they were before the new ones came out.

You can use Imageshack or a place like that. Thanks!

[Extremeweatherguy]

The EURO looks further north now too. Wasn't it showing a direct hit on Nicaragua earlier? Now it has the storm moving north toward Belize.

It's not further north. It's been showing a Belize landfall for several runs now.

The GFS and Euro have consistently concurred, so I'm banking on a Belize hit attm.

people were saying that the EURO showed a Nicaragua hit earlier though...or so I thought. May be I was wrong. Either way the EURO is definitely one of the further south models and I am not buying into it just yet. I will stick with the consensus for now..which is further north..since in the long run the consensus is usually much more accurate than the EURO.

BTW: Just because the EURO and GFS were good with Dean does not mean that they will be as good with Felix.

[ROCK]

The EURO looks further north now too. Wasn't it showing a direct hit on Nicaragua earlier? Now it has the storm moving north toward Belize.

It's not further north. It's been showing a Belize landfall for several runs now.

The GFS and Euro have consistently concurred, so I'm banking on a Belize hit attm.

people were saying that the EURO showed a Nicaragua hit earlier though...or so I thought. May be I was wrong. Either way the EURO is definitely one of the further south models and I am not buying into it yet. I will stick with the consensus for now..which is further north..since in the long run the consensus is usually much more accurate than the EURO.

You are right. Last nights Euro was into Nicaragua....

[ROCK]

Southerngale, I tried to post the 18Z model runs over imageshack...looks like I am doing this wayyyy wrong though....


http://img205.imageshack.us/img205/4361 ... ly2aq4.png

[southerngale]

Southergal, I tried to post the 18Z model runs over imageshack...looks like I am doing this wayyyy wrong though....




http://img505.imageshack.us/img505/6504 ... ly2nv4.png

You uploaded it correctly. It looks like the image you posted here is a thumbnail though. Look for the URL next to " Direct link to image"

[Stratosphere747]

May be a mute point. Depending on the trajectory it moves through after LF, there may not be much left once it emerges back into the BOC - If in fact it does.

[PhillyWX]

You are right. Last nights Euro was into Nicaragua....

Not if you look at the ECMWF site...it was Belize.

[HenkL]

EURO had and has Belize as the place for landfall since the Thursday 12Z run .

[ROCK]

EURO had and has Belize as the place for landfall since the Thursday 12Z run .

huh? see WX57 post on the other Felix thread...page 13

[Thunder44]

The 12z Euro looks pretty consistent from previous runs. I don't see a real north trend in the Euro yet.

[PhillyWX]

EURO had and has Belize as the place for landfall since the Thursday 12Z run .

huh? see WX57 post on the other Felix thread...page 13

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7090100!!/

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

TEXAS do not let your guard down: also
posted by extremeweatherguy.

weather.gov
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 012019
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
319 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2007

.DISCUSSION...MOST OF THE CONVECTION SO FAR HAS BEEN ACROSS
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THE
DRIER AIR IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS KEEPING
A LID ON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON
BUT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S...BELIEVE SOME ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP SHORTLY. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...RAIN CHANCES SEEM TO BE INCREASING SLIGHTLY AS AN
INVERTED 500MB TROUGH/LOW ACROSS SOUTH TX DRIFTS NORTHWARD SUNDAY
AND WESTWARD MONDAY. THE RESULT IS LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTING NORTHWARD ACROSS EAST TX. WITH A WEAK CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AS WELL...POPS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE HIGH END OF CHANCE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. WITH THE 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES MONDAY AND THE 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...A CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL TX
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. THE TROUGH SHOULD FINALLY LIFT NORTHEAST THURSDAY AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S. WEDNESDAY MOVES
EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE STATE FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH. UNTIL THEN...RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE QUESTION IS WHETHER THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ACROSS TX
TUESDAY WILL EXTEND INTO THE WESTERN GULF AND WHETHER THAT WILL
HAVE ANY INFLUENCE ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM FELIX AS
IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. LATEST FORECAST FROM THE
NHC BRINGS FELIX TOWARDS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN ABOUT THREE DAYS. WILL HAVE TO WAIT
AND SEE IF THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO STEER
FELIX WESTWARD AS IT DID WITH DEAN. WITH FELIX MOVING INTO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE THURSDAY...MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL LIKELY INCREASE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD
FOR NOW. 32

[ROCK]

FWIW- NAM is coming out.....little more north in this run...south of Jamaica....

[Extremeweatherguy]

From the 5pm disco...

Felix has resumed a motion of 280/16 after a brief westward jog this
morning. A persistent ridge to the north of the storm should steer
Felix on a west or west-northwestward track for the next couple
of days. Thereafter...the forecast hinges on how strong the ridge
remains over the Gulf of Mexico. The UKMET/NOGAPS/GFDL/hwrf allows
a high over the central Gulf Coast to shift eastward near Florida
and causes a more northwestward track of Felix in about 5 days.
However...the GFS/ECMWF keep the ridge in place and maintain Felix
on a west or west-northwestward motion. In general the guidance
has shifted a little farther north from six hours ago...and the
official forecast is nudged in that direction as well.

[ROCK]

NAM at 72hr......kinda of split the difference in the 18z model runs I guess.....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _072.shtml

[Stratosphere747]

Meh...

12z Euro looks like it is breaking down the ridge at the end of the run.

Doubt we see to much of a change from initial LF shift, but may see something of a change into the BOC.

edit - Just had to add the one of the biggest upsets in college football history is about to happen....

I'm in town all week....

Also one of the biggest upsets in college football did happen.

[Ptarmigan]

TEXAS do not let your guard down: also
posted by extremeweatherguy.

weather.gov
National Weather Service

Area Forecast Discussion
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code
Current Version
Previous Version: 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
31 32 33 34 35 36
[Printable]

Links in the discussion text will open a (small) new browser window with more information inside.
A more complete Weather Glossary is Available Here

000
FXUS64 KHGX 012019
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
319 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2007

.DISCUSSION...MOST OF THE CONVECTION SO FAR HAS BEEN ACROSS
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THE
DRIER AIR IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS KEEPING
A LID ON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON
BUT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S...BELIEVE SOME ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP SHORTLY. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...RAIN CHANCES SEEM TO BE INCREASING SLIGHTLY AS AN
INVERTED 500MB TROUGH/LOW ACROSS SOUTH TX DRIFTS NORTHWARD SUNDAY
AND WESTWARD MONDAY. THE RESULT IS LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTING NORTHWARD ACROSS EAST TX. WITH A WEAK CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AS WELL...POPS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE HIGH END OF CHANCE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. WITH THE 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES MONDAY AND THE 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...A CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL TX
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. THE TROUGH SHOULD FINALLY LIFT NORTHEAST THURSDAY AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S. WEDNESDAY MOVES
EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE STATE FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH. UNTIL THEN...RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE QUESTION IS WHETHER THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ACROSS TX
TUESDAY WILL EXTEND INTO THE WESTERN GULF AND WHETHER THAT WILL
HAVE ANY INFLUENCE ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM FELIX AS
IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. LATEST FORECAST FROM THE
NHC BRINGS FELIX TOWARDS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN ABOUT THREE DAYS. WILL HAVE TO WAIT
AND SEE IF THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO STEER
FELIX WESTWARD AS IT DID WITH DEAN. WITH FELIX MOVING INTO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE THURSDAY...MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL LIKELY INCREASE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD
FOR NOW. 32

The cone of certainty for Felix does have Texas included.

[ROCK]

From the 5pm disco...

Felix has resumed a motion of 280/16 after a brief westward jog this
morning. A persistent ridge to the north of the storm should steer
Felix on a west or west-northwestward track for the next couple
of days. Thereafter...the forecast hinges on how strong the ridge
remains over the Gulf of Mexico. The UKMET/NOGAPS/GFDL/hwrf allows
a high over the central Gulf Coast to shift eastward near Florida
and causes a more northwestward track of Felix in about 5 days.
However...the GFS/ECMWF keep the ridge in place and maintain Felix
on a west or west-northwestward motion. In general the guidance
has shifted a little farther north from six hours ago...and the
official forecast is nudged in that direction as well.

pretty much the same as what HGX said here.......this sounds eerily familiar...