Area off Georgia coast

[OuterBanker]

Sweet, more potent and better than any canned you'll ever have (whoops wrong subject). Well JB bashers and supporters are going to have fun with this. JB predicted home brew for next week. Diana, Carol, Gaston as examples. Who knows he may be right. Will the bashers give him credit if he's right, we all know what will hapeen if he's wrong. Anyway we can use this as reference next week.

[cpdaman]

outer banker can you be a little more specific (even if his prediction was general)

late week, early week, tropical storm, hurricane ??

[OuterBanker]

Late next week from a low exiting off the se coast.

[xironman]

Well you have the Canadian on your side http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=138hr, for what that is worth.

[storms in NC]

Bu not going to help if it stays off shore. We need the rain BAD.

[flwxwatcher]

Todays The 12Z GFS is hinting at something forming of the SE Coast this week and in another thread WXMAN57 also mentioned he thought the area North of the Bahamas was an area to watch for development this week.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

[Emmett_Brown]

Interesting... you can see a low pressure area along the old frontal boundry just coming off the SE coast. This could be the start of our home brew system:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huecvs.html

Has a long way to go to get organized, but here in NE FL, the sky has that look to it... puffy cumulus, with small passsing showers, and winds just a touch breezier than they have been. It is hot here, but the more untable air is putting a dent in the hazy hot conditions that we have been experiencing.

This 48 hour GFS surface mapdoesnt show a low, but it does show a ridge to the north that might keep a low trapped in place for a while off the SE coast:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/slp_48.gif

There will also be a big high aloft, which is generally favorable for development:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/3hh_48.gif

To summarize: It is early, but the conditions look favorable, and the mechanism exists in the form of the frontal low for TC development in the coming days. EC FL to NC should watch it IMO.

[x-y-no]

JB has been looking at the Canadian model, maybe. It blows up a strong hurricane east of Florida and takes it into the Carolinas under a rebuilding ridge.

It's certainly a possibility.

[Ed Mahmoud]

JB has been looking at the Canadian model, maybe. It blows up a strong hurricane east of Florida and takes it into the Carolinas under a rebuilding ridge.

It's certainly a possibility.

Bastardi has been saying the pattern would support something trying to get going there for several days, even before 95L and its cousin 96L, and when they were moving off, he thought another one might try to get going.

Even Bastardi calls the CMC 'the crazy uncle'.

[x-y-no]

JB has been looking at the Canadian model, maybe. It blows up a strong hurricane east of Florida and takes it into the Carolinas under a rebuilding ridge.

It's certainly a possibility.

Bastardi has been saying the pattern would support something trying to get going there for several days, even before 95L and its cousin 96L, and when they were moving off, he thought another one might try to get going.

Even Bastardi calls the CMC 'the crazy uncle'.

Yeah, I guess I was being a bit unfair there. I recall someone mentioning him saying something about an EC home-brew system several days ago.

[cpdaman]

seems like there is a high amount of uncertainty based on reading the NOAA disco's for savannah and jacksonville regarding how this trough/ or low will develop and it's strength although it apparently would develop sunday and move out east into atlantic tuesday based n prelim's.

now wether it steers felix more northward or 98L or neither is yet to be seen

[wxmann_91]

I believe that wxman57 also points out some possible development at the tail end of a stationary front in the Bahamas next week.

[hurricanetrack]

Hey- low pressure is easily seen on radar offshore SC/GA border:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[vacanechaser]

Hey- low pressure is easily seen on radar offshore SC/GA border:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

certainly something going on there for sure... this could very well be on its way... water temps are plenty warm.. need to watch it closely in the next few days



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricaner Intercept Research Team

[flwxwatcher]

Yes, this area is starting to look alot more interesting and the 0Z GFS is trying to develope something in this area now.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

[N2FSU]

Good shot of it on radar here: http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=USFL0479&animate=true

[Emmett_Brown]

Our system is looking better on vis:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GIFS/ECSTVS.JPG

You can clearly see a circulation. Not sure if it is tropical, but it is a low.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Conditions look favorable. I think Gabrielle may come
from this.

[storms in NC]

Will it be whisked out to sea? Or will it give someone some rain that is need so badly?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Very strong ridge building in so it would likely impact
the SE coast quite a bit...Looks like some heavy rain
near georgia/carolinas now...