Hurricane FELIX: Caribbean-Discussions

[Buck]

Looking at the forcast... if it keeps up, it's not going to take until Monday night or Tuesday for Felix to get to Category 3 status.

[Scorpion]

The NHC intensity forecast is usually terribly inaccurate for strengthening systems. This will probably be a Cat 3 late tomorrow.

[RL3AO]

The NHC intensity forecast is usually terribly inaccurate for strengthening systems. This will probably be a Cat 3 late tomorrow.

It could very possibly be.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This is a theory I've put together for this season.

Storms this season can form in two ways....One they can form from extratropical like systems like Andrea,barry,96L. Or they have to form at low lats on the base of a fast subtropical high pressure, with a strong dry air cap over the tropics. I feel that once the system bursts this cap it go's off. That is why when we finally do get a system going it will be powerful,. 98L based on this should not develop unless it gets lucky,.

This looks worst then it did this morning with dry air trying to cut into its southwestern quad.

[Ptarmigan]

The NHC intensity forecast is usually terribly inaccurate for strengthening systems. This will probably be a Cat 3 late tomorrow.

I wouldn't be surprised either.

[Hello32020]

This is a theory I've put together for this season.

Storms this season can form in two ways....One they can form from extratropical like systems like Andrea,barry,96L. Or they have to form at low lats on the base of a fast subtropical high pressure, with a strong dry air cap over the tropics. I feel that once the system bursts this cap it go's off. That is why when we finally do get a system going it will be powerful,. 98L based on this should not develop unless it gets lucky,.

This looks worst then it did this morning with dry air trying to cut into its southwestern quad.

I agree to all of that, but 98L not developing. I think its likely it will develop.
EDIT: 98L seems to me to be an exception to the rule

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yeah the pic I looked at shown dry air cutting into its southwestern quad. But its starting to full back in. With good outflow in all quads. This thing is moving towards the tchp.

[RL3AO]

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This is a theory I've put together for this season.

Storms this season can form in two ways....One they can form from extratropical like systems like Andrea,barry,96L. Or they have to form at low lats on the base of a fast subtropical high pressure, with a strong dry air cap over the tropics. I feel that once the system bursts this cap it go's off. That is why when we finally do get a system going it will be powerful,. 98L based on this should not develop unless it gets lucky,.

This looks worst then it did this morning with dry air trying to cut into its southwestern quad.

Conditions are becoming more favorable for 98L, so it is likely to develop. The two
ways you mentioned were while conditions were hostile in this area,
but with shear forecasted to relax development of 98 is likely.

Anyhow, Felix is going to be a monster. Easily a category 4 in the western
caribbean, conditions are ripe for rapid intensification with low shear, moisture,
and high oceanic heat content.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Looks like Felix may be passing just south of that warm area at 15 N and 75 W. Does anyone think that the track will be shifted more to the right by the 11 pm advisory?

[Ptarmigan]

I agree to all of that, but 98L not developing. I think its likely it will develop.
EDIT: 98L seems to me to be an exception to the rule

I think 98L will develop, but it will be slow to occur though. I would expect it to develop by next week. Some computer models have it moving more to the north.

[Emmett_Brown]

Interesting... the tropical wave along the longitude of Jamaica is firing a lot of convection today as it interacts with a weak upper level low. It would be something if this wave begins to develop too... could create a crowded Carribean. Not saying this would be a TC, but perhaps it could affect the path of Felix to some small degree.

http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/satanim.cgi?banner=mkwc&chnl=ui4&domain=crb&size=large&period=360&incr=15&rr=300&satplat=goes12&overlay=off

[RL3AO]

Here are the questions of the day: What will the ridge do in the next few days? What will Felix do to the ridge? What would Gabby do to the ridge?

[hurricanetrack]

And what, if any, impact would a potential "rabbit out of the hat" cyclone have to everything else that's going on? Man, this is nuts.

Did you see the Canadian? What if just 1/2 of that intensity panned out- how would that play in to things?

[jhamps10]

to those questioning about a possible eyewall development, Recon says YES in first vortex data message :

EYE WALL APPEARS TO BE FORMING SW - SE SIDE

[Zardoz]

...Felix is going to be a monster...

Look how fast it's growing:

GOES East Rainbow

[vaffie]

Here are the questions of the day: What will the ridge do in the next few days? What will Felix do to the ridge? What would Gabby do to the ridge?

I'd be interested in knowing what others think about the Gabby effect. It might be that if Gabby develops rapidly, the two of them--may pump up the ridge--to Felix's northeast and Gabby's northwest. A stronger ridge over Bermuda might result in a deeper trough over the western Gulf or the opposite. Will be interesting.

[ROCK]

to those questioning about a possible eyewall development, Recon says YES in first vortex data message :

EYE WALL APPEARS TO BE FORMING SW - SE SIDE

yep, you can see on the vis loop some.....

[Aric Dunn]

Center starting to show up very clearly on radar


as it gets closer http://www.weather.an/sat_img/radar.asp#