Hurricane FELIX: Caribbean-Discussions

[PhillyWX]

if Felix has to hit anywhere, best place is the south Yucatan. nothing to damage there and few, if any will be killed

Unfortunately, this one is likely going to Honduras

Yep -- and they haven't even gotten back to where they were in 1998 before Mitch hit them.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Gained 0.6º in 21 hours, may never get far enough North to feel any troughs over Texas, not before plowing through Central America.


If the remnants weren't so weak, they might come North into the BOC eventually in response to the trough, but in my unofficial and untrained opinion, this probably never even gets as far North as Belize.

[MGC]

77KTS flight level....has become a hurricane much quicker than earlier forecast....MGC

[Derek Ortt]

and the eye is located .2 south of the NHC 5 p.m. position

[RL3AO]

1st advisory: OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z MAX WIND 65 KT
2nd advisory:OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z MAX WIND 70 KT
3rd advisory: FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z MAX WIND 70 KT
4th advisory: FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z MAX WIND 65 KT
5th advisory: FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z MAX WIND 70 KT

[Ed Mahmoud]

and the eye is located .2 south of the NHC 5 p.m. position

Not in any hurry to reach 13ºN, is it?

[Thunder44]

Looks like it's Hurricane Felix.

223800 1238N 06533W 7546 02443 9971 +162 +126 127064 075 066 007 00

75 kt at FL, 66 kt at the surface.

I guess since they have been using SFMR for surface winds. The reduction for this storm will from FL will be about 90%.

[Derek Ortt]

they are flying at about 750mb, so of course we use a higher reduction that we did from the eariler flight. It is closer to 85-90 at this level

[RL3AO]

and the eye is located .2 south of the NHC 5 p.m. position

Not good for Nicaragua and Honduras.

[HURAKAN]

106
WTNT31 KNHC 012344
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FELIX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
800 PM AST SAT SEP 01 2007

...FELIX BECOMES A HURRICANE...NEW WATCH FOR JAMAICA...

FORECASTER BEVEN

[PhillyWX]

Gained 0.6º in 21 hours, may never get far enough North to feel any troughs over Texas, not before plowing through Central America.


If the remnants weren't so weak, they might come North into the BOC eventually in response to the trough, but in my unofficial and untrained opinion, this probably never even gets as far North as Belize.

It has to clear 15 N by 80 W or else Honduras will impact the storm.

It has gone north 0.9 degrees while going west 6.7 degrees over the last day, now 12.7/65.3
From the 5 PM, if we continue that track per 24 hours increments.

13.6, 72.0
14.5, 78.7
15.4, 85.4

That would bring the center right over NE Honduras.

[jhamps10]

offically hurricane felix now.

[Brent]

Yep! I'm not surprised. Two hurricanes in 2 weeks in the same general location.

[jhamps10]

Gained 0.6º in 21 hours, may never get far enough North to feel any troughs over Texas, not before plowing through Central America.


If the remnants weren't so weak, they might come North into the BOC eventually in response to the trough, but in my unofficial and untrained opinion, this probably never even gets as far North as Belize.

It has to clear 15 N by 80 W or else Honduras will impact the storm.

It has gone north 0.9 degrees while going west 6.7 degrees over the last day, now 12.7/65.3
From the 5 PM, if we continue that track per 24 hours increments.

13.6, 72.0
14.5, 78.7
15.4, 85.4

That would bring the center right over NE Honduras.

NHC moved position SOuth some, 12.6/66.0

[El Nino]

Holy crap !

[PhillyWX]

NHC moved position SOuth some, 12.6/66.0

I was basing off of their 5 PM advisory but the more it stays to the south, the more this goes headstrong into Central America and not towards the Yucatan/Belize.

[RattleMan]

HURRICANE FELIX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
800 PM AST SAT SEP 01 2007

...FELIX BECOMES A HURRICANE...NEW WATCH FOR JAMAICA...

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES FELIX A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...12.6 N...66.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB.

Expect a correction

[Brent]

HURRICANE FELIX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
800 PM AST SAT SEP 01 2007

...FELIX BECOMES A HURRICANE...NEW WATCH FOR JAMAICA...

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES FELIX A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...12.6 N...66.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB.

Expect a correction

and the pressure is 993, not 999. Looks like they were in a rush when they issued it.

[Nimbus]

Should pass north of Aruba by 50 or 60 miles. Even if Hurricane force winds extend out double the current radius of 15 miles it should not be too bad on the weak side of the storm.

Honduras is issuing warnings obviously, a cat 2 or 3 has no really weak side of the storm. If Felix pulls just 50 miles north of the forecast track it could make a real life saving difference.

[cheezyWXguy]

This is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. Just my opinion.

There was just something about this storm...just a gut feeling...even before it became a TD...that if it went south at the beginning, it make a sharper turn to the north. Just a feeling, but Ivan became the most recent example of my thinking...its still a 50%chance of whether it goes south or north...but the models have slowly been shifting north. This is more extreme than with Dean, since it only had the GFDL and maybe one or two other models. Felix, however has all models bending to north to some degree, except only a couple of them. There must be some reason for this.