Invest 98L,Central Atlantic

[BigA]

I have a gut feeling (and its just that) that when this storm hits higher sea surface temperatures and lighter shear tomorrow and Monday, it will start taking off.

[CourierPR]

This system appears to be getting healthier right now.

[Blown Away]

Out of all those models depicted,the GFDL and NHC have more reliability than the others.They are showing a path that would eventually take it into the GOM

Not sure how you can conclude GOM with these model runs, they barely make it to the islands??

[gerrit]

Out of all those models depicted,the GFDL and NHC have more reliability than the others.They are showing a path that would eventually take it into the GOM

Not sure how you can conclude GOM with these model runs, they barely make it to the islands??

Has to be the "gut feeling" that seems to guide many on this forum.

[HURAKAN]

A "gut feeling" mostly means "where I want the system to go." Many here like me say they don't want to see a hurricane but would love to have the experience. The problem is what comes after.

If you pay attention to the chatter when a storm forms, if a person lives in the gulf coast, he/she says it will hit the gulf coast, if a person lives in Florida, the storm will hit Florida, and so on. This mostly comes from people like me that never been in a serious hurricane before.

[CourierPR]

My gut feeling tells me that in five days there may be complications in the forecast tracks for Felix and L98

[HURAKAN]

My gut feeling tells me that in five days there may be complications in the forecast tracks for Felix and L98

The NHC is informing that Félix is already asking for a private track to avoid complication from amateurs like 98L!!!

[gerrit]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 012117
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SAT SEP 1 2007

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE
LESSER ANTILLES IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE SYSTEM COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[gerrit]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 011753
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT SEP 1 2007

WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG 19N34W 6N36W MOVING W
15 KT. A 1009 MB LOW SITS ALONG THIS WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N36W. VIS
IMAGES SHOW THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER EXPOSED TO THE E OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION LOCATED WITHIN 300 NM TO THE W OF THE
CENTER. THIS WAVE IS OBVIOUSLY FEELING THE EFFECTS OF ELY SHEAR
PRODUCED BY A STRONG UPPER HIGH CENTERED TO THE N. FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES W INTO A MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. IT IS NOTABLE
THAT THIS WAVE IS PRODUCING A LARGE PERTURBATION IN THE ITCZ
ACROSS A RATHER LARGE AREA

$$
CANGIALOSI

[HURAKAN]

[canegrl04]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 011753
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT SEP 1 2007

WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG 19N34W 6N36W MOVING W
15 KT. A 1009 MB LOW SITS ALONG THIS WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N36W. VIS
IMAGES SHOW THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER EXPOSED TO THE E OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION LOCATED WITHIN 300 NM TO THE W OF THE
CENTER. THIS WAVE IS OBVIOUSLY FEELING THE EFFECTS OF ELY SHEAR
PRODUCED BY A STRONG UPPER HIGH CENTERED TO THE N. FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES W INTO A MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. IT IS NOTABLE
THAT THIS WAVE IS PRODUCING A LARGE PERTURBATION IN THE ITCZ
ACROSS A RATHER LARGE AREA

$$
CANGIALOSI

SO what implications does this have for Felix?

[gerrit]

SO what implications does this have for Felix?

Nothing as far as I can see..

[canegrl04]

SO what implications does this have for Felix?

Nothing as far as I can see..

I was just wondering about what that,and CourierPR had to say about complications for Felix track 5 days out

[HUC]

Cycloneye,it seems to me that forecasters in the weather bureau of San Juan,are "addicted "to the GFS models. When Gfs runs developped something,their bulletins give a good part of that! Now that Gfs see nothing strong with the wave thy only talk of a wave in the future.... Am'i right? Other wise,i really appreciate their exellent job,very accurate.

[cycloneye]

Cycloneye,it seems to me that forecasters in the weather bureau of San Juan,are "addicted "to the GFS models. When Gfs runs developped something,their bulletins give a good part of that! Now that Gfs see nothing strong with the wave thy only talk of a wave in the future.... Am'i right? Other wise,i really appreciate their exellent job,very accurate.

Yes that is true.But also depends on who is the forecaster in the distint shifts.I really like one of them Snell who does extensive discussions that talk about all the factors and posibbilities in a week ahead.I hope that when this is a TD all the shifts forecasters put meat to the discussions about this system that In my view is going to be the biggest threat of the season for the NE Caribbean.

[HUC]

Tnank's for your reply;i think also that this system is a potential big threat for the NE carriben,or perhaps the central chain!! The High is so strong....

[njweather]

Question: What affect will Felix have on this system, in terms of sea-surface temps and flooding?

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TAFB=Possible Tropical Cyclone within the next 24 hours..

[cycloneye]

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W...MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND
THE LESSER ANTILLES...S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A 1009 MB
LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N36W. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 37W-41W...DISPLACED TO THE W
OF THE EXPOSED CENTER WITH ABOUT 20 KT OF ELY SHEAR OVER THE
SYSTEM AS DEPICTED BY THE LATEST UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS.

8 PM Special Feature discussion about 98L.

[Derek Ortt]

convective activity has collpased this evening, not increased

Some slow development is certainly possible, but I do not see this going bonkers like Felix is doing