mattpetre wrote:I think it's very premature to say this ridge is locked down. With Dean there were some variables in place that just didn't happen to come into play, but there is no certainty that they won't have some effect this time. If the Low coming out of Canada ends up being a bit stronger than expected or even if the storm itself happens to just jog a bit more NW than expected everything could change. One of these days this year we will get bitten depending on this ridge to protect the CONUS. I'm not saying it's likely, but I live in Houston and I didn't let my guard down till dean was slamming into the Yucatan and I won't let my guard down on this one either till the thing is less than 200 miles off the coast of Mexico or Belize... We would be foolish to think this forecast is a foregone conclusion already.
There are few foregone conclusions in forecasting, especially in tropical meteorology. That being said, I am not overly concerned about the CONUS at this point in time. It's not a question of dependence, but rather a sober assesment of the evolving synoptic pattern. Conditions can and often do change. No serious meteorologist considers this situation a "done deal". However, at the present time the most serious threat appears to be much further south than the CONUS, so it is in this region that many forecasters are focusing their efforts.