Hurricane FELIX: Global & BAM Models

[GeneratorPower]

Unbelievable, massive high pressure at the mid-levels pushing everything south from the EPAC to Africa. Unreal.

At this rate, come Christmas, Santa won't be able to drive his SLEIGH to anybody south of 15N !!!

[cycloneye]

126 hours

Still wet!

[GeneratorPower]

Same at 132

[cycloneye]

138 hours

Second landfall.Hello Veracruz.

[GeneratorPower]

Why do we not look at the NAM?

[cycloneye]

Now lets see what NOGAPS,GFDL,UKMET and the EURO have soon.

[HouTXmetro]

Nogaps is smoking crack... it's the lonely outlier clearing the Yucatan Channel.

[ROCK]

Now lets see what NOGAPS,GFDL,UKMET and the EURO have soon.

at this point I am willing to go with the XTRAP for my track.....

[GeneratorPower]

Yeah, if NOGAPS is right, it's not right for the RIGHT reason.

[ROCK]

Nogaps is smoking crack... it's the lonely outlier clearing the Yucatan Channel.

I suspect it will also shift south....and this time I think they all will nail it down to Belize....

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 00z GFS does show a bit of a weaker/further east ridge at 96 hours than it did in the 18z run...

96 hrs (0z run) = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_096l.gif

102 hrs (18z run) = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_102l.gif

...and that trough is still very evident over TX.

[ROCK]

The 00z GFS does show a bit of a weaker/further east ridge at 96 hours than it did in the 18z run...

96 hrs (0z run) = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_096l.gif

102 hrs (18z run) = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_102l.gif

...and that trough is still very evident over TX.

I am guess that is why most of the models (except the BAMMS) are seeing somewhat of a more northerly track late in the forecast period...I don't think it will make much difference though. The Yuc will tear it up pretty good....

[Ed Mahmoud]

Canadian maybe a tad farther North, Belize

[Ed Mahmoud]

Canadian maybe a tad farther North, Belize

Straight West after, never into the BOC

[Extremeweatherguy]

00z UKMET and GFDL are in...



The GFDL is very similar to, though may be a hair north of, the 18z GFDL run..and the UKMET is basically unchanged from the 12z run.

[cycloneye]

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 02.09.2007



HURRICANE FELIX ANALYSED POSITION : 12.5N 66.2W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062007



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 02.09.2007 12.5N 66.2W MODERATE

12UTC 02.09.2007 14.0N 69.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 03.09.2007 14.4N 73.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 03.09.2007 14.8N 77.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 04.09.2007 15.6N 80.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 04.09.2007 16.3N 83.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 05.09.2007 17.0N 85.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 05.09.2007 17.9N 87.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 06.09.2007 19.0N 89.2W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 06.09.2007 20.0N 90.9W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

00UTC 07.09.2007 21.9N 92.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 07.09.2007 23.4N 94.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 08.09.2007 24.5N 96.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE


Whoa!! Just Southeast of Brownsville!! ends the 00z UKMET run.

[Rainband]

Could get interesting for Texas if this keeps up.

[Brent]

Could get interesting for Texas if this keeps up.

Agreed... I'm not going to sound the alarm(because there were several runs of certain models during Dean that showed him headed for TX and one of the NHC 5-day tracks had it approaching Brownsville on Day 5), but it does need to be watched and I don't think it should be ruled out just because a certain model that nailed Dean's track is consistently showing a track much further south.

[southerngale]

Could get interesting for Texas if this keeps up.

Agreed... I'm not going to sound the alarm(because there were several runs of certain models during Dean that showed him headed for TX and one of the NHC 5-day tracks had it approaching Brownsville on Day 5), but it does need to be watched and I don't think it should be ruled out just because a certain model that nailed Dean's track is consistently showing a track much further south.

But a lot of other models are showing a track further south too. With the majority pointing well south of a few others, that's a pretty good consensus, right?

[Brent]

Could get interesting for Texas if this keeps up.

Agreed... I'm not going to sound the alarm(because there were several runs of certain models during Dean that showed him headed for TX and one of the NHC 5-day tracks had it approaching Brownsville on Day 5), but it does need to be watched and I don't think it should be ruled out just because a certain model that nailed Dean's track is consistently showing a track much further south.

But a lot of other models are showing a track further south too. With the majority pointing well south of a few others, that's a pretty good consensus, right?

That's very true, and I think it will follow the southern track, but one further north can't be totally ruled out.