Hurricane FELIX: Caribbean-Discussions

[hurricanetrack]

I see the trough moving on through and then allowing the ridge to build back in. This would cause Felix to come north some, put a lot of people in the U.S. on edge, but then bend back west towards mainland Mexico.
See for yourself on the 18Z GFS:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Trough comes in, pushes ridge east, trough leaves, ridge comes back. Follow the streamlines after the trough leaves. If there was a Felix in there, it would have to head west again and in to Mexico. Yes?

[wxmann_91]

GFS 0z run will look the same. Should take another few runs before it shows any breakdown in the High.

I'm pretty convinced that this is not coming to the U.S. Big question is whether it misses Honduras.

[Weatherfreak14]

Yea it would be very bad if it hits the exact same area Dean hit.

[Derek Ortt]

it would be very good if this hits the same area that Dean hit

What exactly does this storm do if it hits where Dean did? We know what it will do if it hits somewhere else

[gilbert88]

I agree with Derek Ortt.

The thing about a Yucatan strike is that there would like be a second landfall in Veracruz. And THAT, believe me, would be bad... They're still dealing with the flooding from Dean.

Edit: Dean struck the least densely populated area in the whole Caribbean basin (excluding Guatemala). Any other place, including Cancún would be worse.

[RL3AO]

Yea it would be very bad if it hits the exact same area Dean hit.

If it hits north of Dean it affects the populated part of the East Yucatan peninsula, if it hits south of Dean you get into Belize and Honduras where the death toll could be 5000+.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

hurricanetrack, I and the gulf coast nws offices agree with you. The ridge will break down a little, but then build right back in the next day. The trough is going to be weak,come down then shoot off to the northeast not making much of an effect. Eventhough we are still 5 days out look for a path real similar to Dean.

[Weatherfreak14]

it would be very good if this hits the same area that Dean hit

What exactly does this storm do if it hits where Dean did? We know what it will do if it hits somewhere else

I see your point and i agree with you, it would actually be better cause its an area already damaged.

[cycloneye]

Being Felix over 300 miles to our south,we are getting some external bands from it.I measured in my anemometer just a few minutes ago a wind gust of 28 mph in a heavy thunderstorm that moved rapidly thru San Juan.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Being Felix over 300 miles to our south,we are getting some external bands from it.I measured in my anemometer just a few minutes ago a wind gust of 28 mph in a heavy thunderstorm that moved rapidly thru San Juan.

Can you do something like that with the Netherland Antilles radar, as someone earlier mentioned it crashes easy when everyone goes and looks at it.

[Sanibel]

I can't get Aruban radar to load.

[CrazyC83]

Will Felix take the track that Edith took?

Very close to it I think. Sharper turn later is my thinking after a landfall or near-landfall on Honduras.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I think an Edith path is unlikely.


If the GFS or Euro has a couple of runs up closer to Cancun, I'd be nervous. Otherwise, based on recent history, and opinions of the trained professionals like D. Ortt and wxman57, I'll tend to believe the Honduras/Nicaragua as a major, maybe, if it survives, extreme Southern BOC and into extreme Southern mainland Mexico as a weak system.


If 98L can survive the shear and spin up, based on GFS and Euro Day8 to 10 mean 500 mb pattern, then the US Gulf Coast may have an issue.

[skysummit]

As my wife says...."it's got that ninja star look to it".

[Weatherfreak000]

There is no level of uncertainty here in my mind, you can almost take it to the bank this is a Central American threat.

Let's not sit here and try and spin up ULL's and Weaknesses that the Brilliant Supercomputers that calculate twenty times more then a human brain and the amazing crew of Meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center can't imagine.

Every Season has a defining trend, and it's basically a series of events that always seem s to happen. 2004 had the Florida synoptic pattern all year including the Rare Charley scenario. 2005 had Homebrew systems with a highly unfavorable E. Atlantic and a shockingly favorable Caribbean and GOM.

2006 was generally unfavorable and had many troughs, 2007 appears to be the year of the Ridge.

I've already seen at least 7 100 Degree days here in Louisiana and that's ridiculous. We may just have to look back on this season and say that it was a "High Pressure Season".

But this is just all my opinion, you may all conclude your own thoughts.

[Scorpion]

Latest recon supports about 80 kt intensity and 980's pressure

[hial2]

it would be very good if this hits the same area that Dean hit

What exactly does this storm do if it hits where Dean did? We know what it will do if it hits somewhere else

I see your point and i agree with you, it would actually be better cause its an area already damaged.

I disagree...based on the idea of back to back Katrinas would have meant to N.O...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Just saw a 91 knot East winds on the HDOB. Getting stronger.

[fasterdisaster]

So is it likely to be upped to 90 at 2? If so, then this is a very fast storm to develop!

[dwsqos2]

Oh, it's definitely deeper; however, the peak SFMR wind that pass (NE-SW) was 65 knots.


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