Hurricane FELIX: Caribbean-Discussions

[gatorcane]

Let me show you what I see. There are two ULLs heading West into the GOM (one in the central and other in the straits). How do you expect ridging to build in over the GOM with those ULLs? The big high NNE of Felix continues to slowly retreat East...still Felix is moving west rapidly because it is unders its influence but soon it will be on the SW periphery of this ridge.

But once in the Western Caribbean I think we will see Felix slow some and then start bending WNW.

[MGC]

Felix sure did get it together overnight. I'd say based on Felix's satellite presentation he is knocking on Cat-3's door. Felix should continue to intensify and should reach Cat-3 intensity later today. Currently, it looks like a rerun of Dean. ULL over the Florida Straights retrograding, a strong high to the north of the hurricane also moving westward, light shear and increasing ocean heat content. Once Felix moves away from SA tomorrow the possibility is high that Felix will continue to intensify. Cat-4 is a definite possiblilty with Cat-5 a lessor possibility. If Felix tracks to the north of the Honduras coast than Cat-5 potential is higher. I don't think the trough coming down will be strong enough to influence Felix's track to landfall along the Yucatan ATT.....MGC

[Extremeweatherguy]

Wobble back west. Right on trop points. Expect near miss of Honduras and serious hurricane into Belize.

yeah, right onto the new tropical points. Well of course that is going to happen! The NHC just updated the points at 11am. Nothing surprising here. Felix is still north of the old 5am track though.

[Sanibel]

People tried to bend Dean north as well and that never happened. I think we are seeing a disaster for Belize here. Pretty much certain at this perch. It needs to pull up to miss Honduras but will then go over the intensification area that sent Dean to category 5. Felix is a small storm that will revv quicker over favorable waters. Felix is in a very low track. I don't see any radical course changes happening. Belize should have sirens going off at this point as far as preparations.

I think those who were underplaying this earlier should take note of 2007 climo.

[ConvergenceZone]

Yes as I have been saying for several days now a turn to the NW or N at the end of the forecast period seems likely given that persistent ridging is less likely now then in mid August........

and despite nobody has agreed with me, models are not as good at seeing erosions of ridges as we move into September when the large scale synoptics change must quicker

Is Texas or states along the northern GOM starting to make preparations? I hope so.

gator,, I've agreed with you ....

[MGC]

Yes Sanibel, I think Belize City is in for it. ....MGC

[njweather]

HURRICANE EDITH


Do we know that Hurricane Felix won't do the same bounce-northeast thing? Can we know?

[canegrl04]

Berwick Bay seems to be proven correct yesterday when he predicted a turning to the NWI also noticed the track cone has moved more North since yesterday and includes the southern tip of Texas

[ronjon]

From Jeff Masters Blog Today:

Felix a possible catastrophe for Honduras
Given the nearly ideal conditions for intensification--low shear and plenty of high-heat content water--Felix is likely to be a Category 4 storm as it approaches Honduras Monday. If the center tracks parallel to the coast within about 100 miles of it, an extremely dangerous situation ensues for Honduras. Hurricane Fifi of 1974 passed along the north coast of Honduras in 1974 as a Category 2 hurricane, and dumped up to 24 inches of rain on the mountainous country. The resulting landslides and floods killed an estimated 8,000 people--the fourth deadliest Atlantic hurricane ever. The town of Choloma in northwestern Honduras suffered the most. A huge mudslide triggered by Fifi's rains plowed into the city at dusk on September 20, 1974. The mudslide then formed a dam that pent Fifi's raging flood waters. When the dam burst, flood waters ravaged the entire city. Half of Choloma's population--about 2,800 people--died in the catastrophe. Fifi also killed at least 200 people in neighboring Guatemala.

Felix will be stronger that Fifi was, but it will be the size of Felix that will be critical in determining if Fifi-like rains hit Honduras. As Fifi approached Honduras between September 17 and 18, 1974 (Figure 2), it grew in size. The increased size allowed Fifi to pull in moisture from the Pacific Ocean, which greatly enhanced the rainfall over Honduras. If Felix grows large enough to tap this Pacific source of moisture, prodigious rains capable of causing major loss of life will result. Currently, Felix is not large enough to tap the Pacific moisture source. Additionally, Felix is moving faster--17 mph, as opposed to Fifi's 11 mph. This won't give Felix as much time to pour torrential rains on the region. These factors may combine to prevent Felix from matching Fifi's deadly rainfall totals. However, once Felix moves clear of the South American coast, there is a good chance the storm will grow in size, due to the additional influx of moisture from the south. If this occurs, not only Honduras is at risk. The nations of Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala, Belize, and Mexico will also be at high risk of life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

Felix's threat to other locales
Felix will be devastating wherever is makes landfall, which currently appears to be the Yucatan Peninsula. There are no troughs of low pressure capable of altering Felix's steady course coming, until the storm emerges into the Gulf of Mexico after crossing the Yucatan. At that point, a trough of low pressure strong enough to bring Felix to the Texas coast may move through. It is too early to guess how strong this trough might be, and what the potential risk to Texas is.

[Sanibel]

Note that Felix has mean red IR in his core where Dean was still warm-topped at this longitude. Our low-boy is at 13.3N. Way down in the hot tropics.

[wxman57]

Let me show you what I see. There are two ULLs heading West into the GOM (one in the central and other in the straits). How do you expect ridging to build in over the GOM with those ULLs? The big high NNE of Felix continues to slowly retreat East...still Felix is moving west rapidly because it is under its influence but soon it will be on the SW periphery of this ridge.

But once in the Western Caribbean I think we will see Felix slow some and then start bending WNW.

The setup is very similar to Dean as far as the upper low in the Gulf. But look at the ridge in the Bahamas building westward on top of Felix. All models move the upper low westward and out of the way of the building ridge. Big question is - where is the western edge of the ridge Thursday/Friday?

[Aric Dunn]

Let me show you what I see. There are two ULLs heading West into the GOM (one in the central and other in the straits). How do you expect ridging to build in over the GOM with those ULLs? The big high NNE of Felix continues to slowly retreat East...still Felix is moving west rapidly because it is under its influence but soon it will be on the SW periphery of this ridge.

But once in the Western Caribbean I think we will see Felix slow some and then start bending WNW.

The setup is very similar to Dean as far as the upper low in the Gulf. But look at the ridge in the Bahamas building westward on top of Felix. All models move the upper low westward and out of the way of the building ridge. Big question is - where is the western edge of the ridge Thursday/Friday?

and how far south the trough dig south over central Texas

[Derek Ortt]

Felix does not need to miss Honduras to become a cat 5

[perk]

Think we need to talk about model trends instead of single run outputs.

The water vapor imagery is showing a large clockwise rotation over the Caribbean.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrwv.html

There is a counter clockwise spin over Western Texas. This kind of dynamic environment does not lend itself to linear forecast tracks. Spiral sections and curves do a better job. A track like Edith is not out of the question. I expect the next set of 24 hour locations will be further north.

Yeah Nimbus that clockwise spin over west Texas is that troughiness that some earlier posts has eluded to.

[HURAKAN]

It has to be a major at this moment.

[Brent]

It looks INCREDIBLE. Dean did not look this good when it became a major. It looks like it'll be a Cat 4 very soon(as in today).

[Zardoz]

Some ominous-sounding posts. A very serious situation is brewing, unfortunately...

[cycloneye]

It is time to move that floater right HURAKAN?

[Aric Dunn]

would not be surprised if we have a cat 4 before recon gets out of there..
.
or now...

[WmE]

Nice clear eye. Definitly looks better than Dean as a Cat2/3. I'm curious what the recon will find.