Hurricane FELIX: Global & BAM Models

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Brent
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Re: Hurricane FELIX: Global & BAM Models=12z GFS rolling in

#521 Postby Brent » Sun Sep 02, 2007 12:29 pm

Blown_away wrote:Where did that low off the FL coast come from?


AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE GEORGIA
COAST IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DECAYING FRONTAL ZONE. THIS SYSTEM HAS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS
IT DRIFTS GENERALLY EASTWARD.
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Re: Hurricane FELIX: Global & BAM Models

#522 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 02, 2007 12:36 pm

WHXX04 KWBC 021724
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE FELIX 06L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 2

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 12.9 69.3 285./15.9
6 13.2 71.1 279./17.1
12 13.7 72.6 288./15.9
18 14.3 74.7 287./20.6
24 14.8 76.7 283./20.2
30 15.1 78.6 277./18.7
36 15.1 80.4 272./17.6
42 15.1 81.8 271./13.6
48 15.1 83.4 270./14.7
54 14.9 84.7 258./12.9
60 14.7 85.8 262./11.3
66 14.4 87.2 260./13.4
72 14.4 88.3 266./10.4
78 14.0 89.1 246./ 8.3
84 14.0 89.8 270./ 7.5
90 13.9 90.8 265./ 9.8
96 14.0 92.3 274./14.0
102 14.5 93.3 294./10.5
108 15.3 93.9 319./10.3
114 16.5 94.5 335./13.8
120 16.7 95.2 282./ 6.4
126 15.3 97.6 241./27.1

12z GFDL.
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Re: Hurricane FELIX: Global & BAM Models

#523 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sun Sep 02, 2007 12:38 pm

New GFDl takes Felix into Honduras
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Re: Hurricane FELIX: Global & BAM Models

#524 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sun Sep 02, 2007 12:39 pm

wow! That is a major (and almost unrealistic) shift south in the GFDL! It now turns the storm SW into Hondorus and then moves it out into the Pacific.

Image

This model has now become a southern outlier.
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Re: Hurricane FELIX: Global & BAM Models

#525 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 02, 2007 12:47 pm



MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



AND ATLANTIC



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 02.09.2007



HURRICANE FELIX ANALYSED POSITION : 13.3N 69.4W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062007



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 02.09.2007 13.3N 69.4W MODERATE

00UTC 03.09.2007 14.1N 72.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 03.09.2007 14.5N 76.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 04.09.2007 15.1N 80.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 04.09.2007 15.3N 83.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 05.09.2007 16.3N 85.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 05.09.2007 17.0N 87.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 06.09.2007 17.9N 89.0W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 06.09.2007 19.0N 90.3W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY

00UTC 07.09.2007 20.4N 92.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 07.09.2007 20.8N 94.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 08.09.2007 22.3N 95.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 08.09.2007 23.5N 97.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY


12z UKMET
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Re: Hurricane FELIX: Global & BAM Models

#526 Postby Cape Verde » Sun Sep 02, 2007 12:48 pm

Maybe it's Gabrielle?
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Re: Hurricane FELIX: Global & BAM Models

#527 Postby PTrackerLA » Sun Sep 02, 2007 12:49 pm

I'm having the feeling this will continue to plow west towards where Dean hit or further south. It's amazing two extremely intense hurricanes are going to impact the same general area just weeks apart. The US is sure getting lucky this year.
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#528 Postby Cape Verde » Sun Sep 02, 2007 12:50 pm

The GFDL is just acting goofy. It's equally as strange with 98L.
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#529 Postby HouTXmetro » Sun Sep 02, 2007 1:08 pm

It's relaxing for U.S. residents that a right turn once in the BOC seems less likely based on the last model runs.
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Re: Hurricane FELIX: Global & BAM Models

#530 Postby ronjon » Sun Sep 02, 2007 1:09 pm

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#531 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sun Sep 02, 2007 1:11 pm

Based on all the model trends this morning and this afternoon, I would say that the current NHC track is looking pretty good ATM. There is a nice cluster of models right around it... with the one big outlier being the GFDL: https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... s/storm_06

The NHC is doing a great job so far it seems!
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Sun Sep 02, 2007 1:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#532 Postby ronjon » Sun Sep 02, 2007 1:16 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:Based on all the model trends this morning, I would say that the current NHC track is looking pretty good, ATM. There is a nice cluster of models right around it... with the one big outlier being the GFDL: https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... s/storm_06

The NHC is doing a great job so far it seems!


Yeah, the NHC are the PROs. What's up with the GFDL - swingly wildly between extreme south and north tracks. And the 06 HWRF track - bizarre to say the least. And these two are supposed to be the best pure tropical models we have? :x
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#533 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sun Sep 02, 2007 1:19 pm

yeah, the performances of the GFDL and HWRF have been sketchy for both Dean and now Felix. I am losing trust in both models big time beyond day 3 as they tend to create some rather odd looking scenarios.
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Re: Hurricane FELIX: Global & BAM Models

#534 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 02, 2007 1:20 pm

Now lets see what the reliable EURO brings.
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Re: Hurricane FELIX: Global & BAM Models

#535 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 02, 2007 1:37 pm

WHXX01 KWBC 021800
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1800 UTC SUN SEP 2 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE FELIX (AL062007) 20070902 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070902 1800 070903 0600 070903 1800 070904 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.4N 71.1W 14.3N 74.4W 15.3N 77.4W 15.9N 80.2W
BAMD 13.4N 71.1W 14.3N 74.5W 15.2N 77.6W 15.9N 80.2W
BAMM 13.4N 71.1W 14.2N 74.6W 15.2N 78.0W 15.9N 80.9W
LBAR 13.4N 71.1W 14.2N 74.4W 15.3N 77.8W 16.2N 80.9W
SHIP 110KTS 123KTS 129KTS 133KTS
DSHP 110KTS 123KTS 129KTS 133KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070904 1800 070905 1800 070906 1800 070907 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.7N 82.8W 18.5N 87.2W 20.6N 91.6W 22.9N 95.5W
BAMD 16.6N 82.5W 18.2N 86.7W 20.0N 91.0W 21.5N 94.6W
BAMM 16.6N 83.5W 17.9N 88.0W 19.7N 92.4W 21.3N 96.2W
LBAR 17.2N 83.6W 19.5N 87.9W 22.2N 91.5W 20.8N 95.8W
SHIP 134KTS 125KTS 114KTS 107KTS
DSHP 134KTS 125KTS 51KTS 44KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.4N LONCUR = 71.1W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 12.7N LONM12 = 67.8W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 12.5N LONM24 = 64.5W
WNDCUR = 110KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 85KT
CENPRS = 964MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 40NM RD34NW = 90NM

$$
NNNN

The 18:00z BAMS.
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Re: Hurricane FELIX: Global & BAM Models

#536 Postby jhamps10 » Sun Sep 02, 2007 1:38 pm

guys, 18z xtrap shows a big difference between this and 12z.

you may wonder why i bring this up, but the 12z had it landfalling on the honduras/nicguraua border. the 18z has it missing honduras completely, and hitting central Belize.

That means it has gone a lot further WNW between 12 and 18z.

top line is 18z, bottom line is 12z:
Image
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#537 Postby Cyclone1 » Sun Sep 02, 2007 1:48 pm

xtrap isn't a model, it stands for Extrapolation. Basically the direction felix is currently moving.
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Re:

#538 Postby swimaster20 » Sun Sep 02, 2007 1:51 pm

Cyclone1 wrote:xtrap isn't a model, it stands for Extrapolation. Basically the direction felix is currently moving.


I think he realizes that. He's trying to show that Felix has moved more WNW than it had previously.
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Re: Hurricane FELIX: Global & BAM Models

#539 Postby mattpetre » Sun Sep 02, 2007 1:53 pm

Seems to me that Felix is already west of the ridge that was supposed to keep pace with it... If the one in the GOM doesn't build over the next couple of days, I just don't see why a more northward trend wouldn't be expected. I'm curious as to whether Derek still thinks this is going to landfall in Honduras, he understands the synoptics much better than I do.
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#540 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Sep 02, 2007 1:56 pm

this is moving closer to 280 than 285. I fixed the eye at 15Z at 13.3 not 13.2. It moved 1 full degree west between 15 and 18Z and only .2N

Nothing has really changed with tis track through belize landfall. Still looking like a Honduras landfall first. Even if there is no actual landfall... effects to Honduras should be the same
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